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S&P tickles 1,100, great call Anticitrade and 5Catagories !!!

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October 21, 2009 – Comments (8)

A purist would wait for an indice to close at a particular level before commenting on it, but I'm not a purist.  I'm a fun loving fool who doesn't know when not to downthumb something Mr. Market has a temporary love affair with, (beauty is in the eyes of the beholder) and conversely gets too impatient or too chicken to ride the upthumbs long enough for them to play out.

CAPs has been doing some roundtables with some top fools in various areas.  Kudos to all who publically make calls. It's educations and valuable to see dissenting opinions and to get some meat behind the opinion. If we were afraid to voice our opinion for all to see then this site would be very boring, if it even existed.

In this very good round table,

 http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/10/06/caps-roundtable-how-to-invest-right-now.aspx?source=isesitlnk0000001&mrr=1.00

Anticitrade and 5Catagories predicted an S&P of 1,100 before it saw 900 again. Anticitrade in a blog reply now predicts 1,200 before 900.  The market is indeed erratic and running on the news.  The DOW 10,000 seems to have encouraged the market and of course the S&P rides along.  Earnings are hit and miss among the big issuers.  Market sentiment will continue to ebb and flow with those saying the markets are over valued vying with those who missed out on the rise and are itching to get in. 

The devaluing Dollar gives fresh interest to Gold and Oil which in turn are heavy movers of the market.   While I've predicted more up than down for the rest of the year, I'm not bold enough to predict real numbers. I'm just happy when I can buy and sell with 70% or better accuracy and I appreciate CAPs as another tool to help.

Happy fooling.

TSIF (The Sky isn't Falling, at least not today, but check back in tomorrow, or this afternoon even!)

 

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 21, 2009 at 12:30 PM, anticitrade (99.66) wrote:

Thanks TSIF!

It's nice to be right, but even better to have someone recognize you were right.  As far as my call for 1200, I thought I better add a reference:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=275329&t=01009449456398254945

 

"anticitrade,

 

Forget about mine. I said I might be wrong and I will correct my stance accordingly. I doubt it but we will see. So what's your call (no charts needed). We had a joint article in CAPS Roundtable. They asked @ 1060 if we hits 1100 or 900 first. We went opposite ways but it wasn't a fair question. Let's put the question in the right balance. Assume we are @ 1100 (which we almost there) - From 1100, will we see 1300 first or 900? I will even make it 1200 for you and 900 for me. What do you say? 

GV 

 

Goodvibe,
First of all, I don't think that predicting the direction of the market is a talent of mine.  I think my strength is finding the top 5-10% of companies to invest in out of thousands. 
Yet, I am  a sucker for a challenge so I will say: 1200
Partly because you left me no choice, but mostly because:
a)  Given an equal probability of it going up an down, the 1200 spot is more likely given the current position.
b)  History shows us that it does NOT have an equal chance of going up as going down, and that there is a definitive bias towards it going up.
c)  I see a lot of economic activity from my job.
d) Optimism is much much more pleasent a lifestyle than pessimism.
So there is my new bet.  Remember, I openly admit that I am not an expert in this field."

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#2) On October 21, 2009 at 12:47 PM, pj19 (< 20) wrote:

Anticitrade,

 

I am a big fan of your website.  You are the man!  4/4 picks I took from it are up an average of 12% in my RLP.  I do my own due diligence, of course.  But your website gives a handy place to start looking for good investments.  

 

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#3) On October 21, 2009 at 1:58 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Thank you for the added context anticitrade!  I'm surprised anyone even had time to read this blog. It appears I posted it during "bloggers rush hour", but had been watching the S&P tickle the 1,100 all week so wanted to get it posted, despite the time of day. I know they are all just "numbers", but they give us reason to reflect, debate, and converse, so each hundred points up or down is a fresh new start.

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#4) On October 23, 2009 at 12:39 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

The all mighty TSIF ..please read my latest Blog..I'm leaning toward PLM through my own D&D & tip from caps..Could I perhaps get your thoughts or choice before I choose.

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#5) On October 23, 2009 at 6:28 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I replied on PLM in your blog.  I don't have anything to offer up at the moment that fits your six month time frame. My favorite long term pick is MYRX.  Good luck.

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#6) On October 23, 2009 at 7:29 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

Here are my choices to at least double in six months PRGN, KV-A, BDSI, PLM and TGB. In order of being picked to at least double mine would be:

  1. KV-A - 2.PLM  -3.BDSI  -4. TGB– of course this is my pick, would have to take my wife out to dinner :)  -5. PRGN   

What are your choices 1 - 5?

 

Feed back would be welcomed

 

 

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#7) On October 28, 2009 at 12:08 AM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

gtn-=wrong call

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#8) On October 28, 2009 at 1:46 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Do you mean as one of your 50% doubles, or my temporary call on caps?   Give it a few weeks. 

I did try to reply to your list, but lost my comment somewhere. I believe I said that PLM and TGB were speculative miners and I would put the best futures on PLM. I also upthumbed it on Caps.  They are both make or break.  I don't know if they will make in your six month time frame.  If they break, they will go down hard.

KV-A lost a lot of it's customers under the fiasco. The FDA ruling and startup would be within your six months period. I think they will get a decent pop in the next six months, but I doubt it will hold.

BDSI is my long term favorite of your group, but I don't think it will get the upside in your six month window. Overall it's the most stable of the group with the least amount of upside.

PRGN would not be a call of mine, although long term it's not a bad play. You should treat your wife to dinner anyway.

My choices would be PLM with highest risk, but getting regulatory approval would boost them and BDSI in that order.

Good luck.

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