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valuemoney (< 20)

S&P weekly high next year, late in year, of 1497.



December 12, 2010 – Comments (2)

This is going back to my thesis of comparible charts of the 70's. The market has performed about in tandem with that period in time. Everything is set up in this point in time to confirm this next huge rally in 2011. Financials and home builders are starting to lead this market upward. Large cap stocks like WMT, JNJ, XOM have not performed in last 2 years relative to S&P. These large caps will be the main reason market goes higher. GE is still cheap. Money is already flowing out of US bonds. The retail investor will get back into market next year, pushing prices even high. When investors see jobs growth next year market players will get even more excited. The goverment will allow banks to increase dividends. When this happens institutions will pick up more finanicials in the portfolios, yet again driving prices higher. Housing  will also be a part in this hole rally. Inventories will be too low by August of 2011 and the home building stock will be ripping. And one more driver.... Europe is lagging in this whole thing because their time frame on the markets and what all happen is lagging us. That being said, Why then 1497 mark? History and human behavior is on my side. ( I will try and post some numbers on my next blog so people can see where I am getting this all from).

And one key thing will happen late next year to stop the rally. THE FED! The exit will start. The fed and other governments around the world used money to stop the calapse in 2008-2009. Rising interest rates will be the key stopper in all of this.

This blog is my prediction I am not saying I am 100% sure. No one can predict the future.

I am using my CAPS accordingly on these charts of the 70's and thus my market calls since 2009, off and on using the short bias etf and bond funds along with stocks that will move or stay the same in an up or down market depending on which way I think the market is going.

My account now will roughly stay the same until the market hits 1497. Will switch in and out of some longs that run too much. Otherwise staying short the shorts. And liking the banks and homebuilders.

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 13, 2010 at 8:14 PM, dragonLZ (60.85) wrote:

Very, very interesting stuff, valuemoney. 

Thanks for sharing.

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#2) On January 03, 2012 at 9:01 PM, valuemoney (< 20) wrote:

I am dumb. Way too optimistic. This should have been a prediction out to the end of 2013.

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