Since my last update, quite a bit has happened for both companies;
2013) 2013 Production growth will be very mild, picking up in Q4. Remeber, Sandstorm has to replace the lost production from the Black Fox stream being reduced from 12% to 8%. Luckily increased production from Black Fox as well as Aurizona should mitigate a good portion of that. Mitigating the rest and driving what production growth Sandstorm will see in 2013 will be Backelor Lake and Bracemac-Mcleod to a lesser extent. While cornerstone asset Serra Pelada will commence production in 2H 2013, it will only begin to make a material impact on attributable production in 2014.
Production estimate (2012) ~ 43,500 oz.;s
2014) 2014 Production growth will be driven primarily by Serra Pelada and the St. Elena Expansion. Other growth drivers include a full yr at Bachelor Lake and possibly some production from Deflector. (Mutiny has changed the mine plane whereby mill throughput will be increased to the extent it can produce 80,000 - 100,000, up from the originial forecast of 50-55,000 oz.'s.
Production Estimate (2014) - 58,000 oz.'s
2015 - Serra Pelada will have its first full yr proucing Au, Pt and Pd at capacity as well as Mutiny ramping up toward capacity. Mt. Hamilton will also contribute to growth in 2015.
2015 Production - 76,000 AuEq oz.'s
2016) Phase II (which will likely be undertaken will be complete), which will increase attributable production 16-20k. Mt. Hamilton, Coringa and possibly Cuiu Cuiu will further add to growth.
2016 Production - 101,000 AuEq oz.'s
Sandstorm Metals & Energy -
Trimming the fat - Over the last year Sandstorm M&E has trimmed the fat it was carrying, notably restructuring the Rex and Rosa stream and more recently the Terrex stream. This provides Sandstorm with some extra cash to deploy for its next deal on top of the robust cash balance it currently has. From the looks of it, Sandstorm has learned its lesson in investing in marginal projects as the most recent stream acquisitions are of much higher quality.
Bracemac-Mcleod - Sandstorm will see this cornerstone asset commence production in the next month, ramping up over the coarse of the year. Attributable copper production from Bracemac should make Sandstorm cash flow positive for the first time starting in Q3, if not Q4. Once fully ramped up and accounting for Sandstorm increasing its 17.5% stream to 24.5%, attributable production should be roughly 6.6m lbs - 7m lbs Cu at $1/lb.
Gordon Creek - Sandstorm is already recognizing cash flow (albeit small) generation from Gordon Creek, which will increase over the course of this yr and reach full production in Q1 (Q2 at the latest) 2014. Gordon creek provides extreme leverage to the price of natural gas so it will become a significant asset as we see the price of natural gas rise over time.
Serra Pelada - A second cornerstone asset acquired in 2012 for a mere $15m (payable later this yr). This was an exceptional acquisiton, however due to Colossus initially skipping a 43-101, we don't know the production numbers (although using analyst estimates avg grade implies avg annual production between 50-70k oz.;s.