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Scorecard for companies that I've done full write-ups on in my blog



February 29, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: MO , TMX.DL2 , CBI

If you've ever looked at the massive list of companies that I have picked in CAPS, I try to keep my list at a constant 200 or close to it, you can tell that I'm going with the throw as much stuff at the wall as possible and see what sticks approach.  I obviously don't do this in real life.  Back in November I began to take the time to start writing up reports on my favorite stock ideas and sharing them in my blog.  With a couple of them under my belt, I figured that it was time to keep track of how they are performing.  This is still the first inning so to speak, because I bought them in CAPS and in real life with the intention of holding them for several years.

Pick #1: Altria (MO)

Start date: 10/11/07 

Starting price: $69.11

Current price: $73.78 

Return: +6.75%

CAPS score:  +19.65

Despite the fact that it has fallen from its recent highs, Altria has done pretty well since I did my initial write-up on it.  While I think that Altria will be a fairly attractive investment after its spin-off of Philip Morris International is complete, I was really after the PMI business with this purchase.  It's always tough to decide to purchase shares of a company before a spin-off happens or to wait until after the transaction to pick up the piece that you really want.  Ultimately I see myself hanging onto the full PMI position in my portfolio and selling off probably half of the remaining Altria shares, but I'm playing it by ear.  Hopefully big MO's share price will begin to rise as the spin-off date of late March approaches.


Pick #2: Mattel (MAT)

Start date: 11/5/07

Starting price: $20.58

Current price: $20.20

Return: -1.84%

CAPS score:  +6.7

It's debatible whether Mattel should be considered a real pick or not because in the write-up I said "I think that I am going to sit on the sidelines for a little while until this one absolutely screams buy, but it’s getting pretty close."  Well, it never screamed buy to me and I never did buy MAT in my real portfolio.  The company has been performing exceptionally well, benefitting from a lot of the trends that I mentioned in my write-up, particularly global growth.  Nevertheless, it has been sucked down with the rest of the market lately.  Mattell is probably in better shape today than it was when I wrote about it and its shares are slighgtly lower.


Pick #3: Telmex (TMX) 

Start date: 11/30/07 

Starting price: $36.84

Current price: $34.96

Return: -5.1%

CAPS score:  +2.55

My next selection was another spin-off play, but this one was a little different than Altria because I have almost no desire to retain the Mexican fixed-line operations of Telmex after the spin-off of its international operations is complete.  Again I was feced with the challenge of deciding whether to purchase Telmex now or wait until the transaction is complete.  I decided to pull the trigger right away.  I have been less than impressed by the proformance of TMX's Mexican operations since then, but the International business is doing great.  The only think that is keeping this pick from having a negative CAPS score is that the general market in the form of the S&P 500 has sucked worse than Telmex has over the past couple of months.  I'm still really excited about picking up the international business and believe that it will ultimately be a big winner.  In my real portfolio I will probably eventually sell off the remaining Mexican business unless it A) becomes mind-blowingly cheap after the spin-off or B) they finally get the ability to offer television over the Internet.


Pick #4:  Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI)

Start date: 2/14/08

Starting price: $42.40

Current price: $48.47

Return: +14.32%

CAPS score:  +14.12

Interestingly, my most recent selection is also the bestperformer of the group.  Chicago Bridge & Iron is up over 14% since I picked it up in real life and CAPS just two weels ago.  Man, I'm glad that I pulled the trigger on it when I did.  I would have been really annoyed if its stock ran up 15% between the time that I started my write-up and finished it.  My theory that certain infrastructure plays, particularly the ones that are heavily involved in energy, were oversold on worries about the overall economy while their clients were printing money is playing out already.  CBI recently reported its Q4 results.  Despite the fact that it slightly missed analysts' estimates it raised its guidance for 2008.


Well, there you have it. My four official write-ups so far.  To be fair, I have decided to only count companies in this scorecard that I have done large writeups for in my blog, rather than cherry picking some of my best ideas from the past like Monsanto and Deer as ethanol plays or Petrobras.  I hope that you like them.  If you have any thoughts on these companies, please let me know.

Have a great weekend 


Long MO, TMX, & CBI 

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 29, 2008 at 3:21 PM, DemonDoug (31.02) wrote:

Deej: regarding Altria, I would keep all of it.  The tobacco companies have a basic oligopoly, and cigarettes are something that will always keep up with inflation. While I agree with PMI, and that the domestic part might not grow as much, I still see upside there and no real reason to sell unless you have a screaming buy (like SBUX right now?) that you are going to use that money for where you really feel you will get a better return.  PM domestic I think will be like a utility play - steady slow growth over years with a strong dividend.  There is virtually no competition outside of the tobacco companies already entrenched.

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#2) On February 29, 2008 at 3:56 PM, TMFDeej (97.73) wrote:

Thanks for sharing your thoughts DemonDoug.  I see your point about Altria's U.S. business.  I don't dislike the U.S. operations, I just like the PMI business better.  At this point, I am probably planning on ultimately keeping half of the U.S. business.  I have acquired a much larger than normal position in Altria in advance of the spin-off anticipating that MO might run up in March as the transaction date approaches.  I plan on normalizing the size of my MO position and keeping the entire PMI position at some point.


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