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Vet67to82 (< 20)

Seasonality

Recs

119

December 05, 2009 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: CHK , SD , LINE

I ran a screen based on seasonality, and then my own charts  ... I had to write my own code to do that ... and it appears that CHK offers "volitility " peaks and dips,   ... both buying opportunities, and selling opportunities, in the chart overlays that occur even during the winter "heating" season ... over the next 10 days, NY City will be down into the 30's F ... and the brokers, and floor traders will be forced to think about heat as they pop in and out of the cold. ( Smiling and grinning - yes I am! )   That should be real good for CHK, LINE, SD, etc. 

  In a personal note: Nat gas is abundant in the USA and burns cleaner, and cheaper per BTU,  than coal or crude products and so is better for the planet AND the consumer pocketbook  ...  

  If the USA converted ,,, just 30% of its nationwide trucking fleet to Nat Gas ... we'd see the air pollution drop nicely, and the trade imbalance drop, and crude prices would also drop on reduced demand. WHY are we sending dollars overseas when we DON'T have to?

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 05, 2009 at 5:22 PM, blake303 (29.90) wrote:

This year, I invested in pumpkins. They've been going up the whole month of October and I got a feeling they're going to peak right around January. Then, bang! That's when I'll cash in.

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#2) On December 05, 2009 at 6:10 PM, Teacherman1 (48.10) wrote:

Foolanthropy On.

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#3) On December 07, 2009 at 11:09 AM, lemoneater (88.66) wrote:

Using the seasonality argument, invest in sugar. Christmas baking is underway. Perhaps McKormick would be a good idea--all those spices!

I'm invested in natural gas SE partly because of seasonality and partly because I like the dividend. Merry Christmas!

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#4) On December 10, 2009 at 1:24 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

 I look at a $22 CHK, with a $19 tbv, and remember MR Warren Buffett's words about takeovers and NOT paying more than 1.5 x book value.

 Chesapeake Energy Corp CHK:NYSE 12/10/2009

$23.12 +$0.68    +3.03%  Vol.  11,279,572 

Tangible Book Value (tbv)  per share (MRQ) 18.58

CHK Price / tbv = 1.2444

 

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#5) On December 13, 2009 at 3:00 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

20091211 The Commodity Research Bureau's TrendTrader is Short Crude Oil, Heating Oil, RBOB Gasoline and new Long positions in Natural Gas.

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#6) On December 18, 2009 at 1:33 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

Here are 2 must read ... know, bookmark, and monitor websites:

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Schedule

The standard release time and day of the week will be at 10:30 a.m. (Eastern time) on Thursdays

******* http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/info_glance/natural_gas.html

US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

******* http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

Bonus time for all you perma-shorts (smiling) :

Gold Signals Possible New Shock

******* http://numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=9025

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#7) On December 18, 2009 at 1:36 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

Southern New England is experiencing a cold snap ... 14F with wind chill -1F and a Low forming in the Gulf of Mexico that could be a huge "snow" storm for the Saturday/Sunday period in Southern New England. 50% of USA homes use nat gas ... expect the Thursday US EIA to report another drawdown in nat gas supplies based on it iakes MORE btus to bring a home from -1F to 70F ... and the other 50% primarily use home heating oil so expect the Wednesday US EIA to report a bigger drawdown in crude supplies. That's another reason I invest in the CHK's, UNG's, etc ... the money goes circular. When I invest in the companies, of the products I use, the money comes back to me, in dividends ... and stock price increases.

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