Secular or Cyclical Bull Market?
Well this bull market is now in its fifth year. You read and hear a lot about how this year or the next might see a steep drop based off of the past. With that said you might want to get defensive. However, that would be true if this was a cyclical bull market which I submit is not.
First you often hear pundits cry how shallow the recovery is, that we should have greater growth by now. That would certainly be true if we were in a cyclical one. Except companies have yet to run any real cycle. I submit demographics will control with boomers starting to retire. And it is this that will continue to keep things tepid for years to come.
Rates will remain low (maybe some token raises down the road) because there is no overheating of the economy and inflation will remain relatively tame. Older people spend less yet since GDP is 70% spending this will keep things from overheating.
Cramer has bemoaning how all these new IPOs seems comparable to what happened during the dot.com bust. Except boomers are not coming back into this market. Period. Hence you don't have that large group of suckers to dump shares of stocks of profitless companies on. They aren't getting fooled again.
In light of the above, and absent any major overhaul of corporate taxation or serious Immigration legislation, this bull can go on for quite sometime.