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Varchild2008 (84.67)

See? I told you so! Economic turn-a-round begins

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March 02, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: BBY

Fun way to track the economy...Granted I don't know about the accuracy as I do not know how Gallup gets their numbers....Is indeed to log onto Gallup.com.  Check out their economic indicators as well as Pres. Obama's job performance.

Anyhow...  We have some good news that unfortunately doesn't by itself mean anything yet.. Because the good news we got today could fall apart in the next month/quarter...

1)  Consumer Spending and Incomes UP in Jan.
2)  Slowdown in Construction/Manufacturing not as bad as expected

Investors are banking on January's numbers as Flukes....  While I can't predict March clearly yet, I predict February to actually RIVAL /BEST the January numbers.

I think spending surged in February...to .8% - 1%.

Don't underestimate the magic of "Christmas Gift Cards" and "Discounts" and American's need to feel and be happy again.

Don't think we have an economic turn-a-round brewing?  Tell that to Best Buy's stock price up $11 (even with today's sell-off) from its 52-week low.  That is saying something!

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 02, 2009 at 2:25 PM, Varchild2008 (84.67) wrote:

I'm gonna emphasize that GDP is most definitely negative Q1 2009 and perhaps again Q2 2009.

I'm looking at Q3 for a ZERO GDP quarter and Q4 for a positive GDP.

The market sell-off was too hard, too fast, too much.  I suspect investors did this for GDP reasons and not Consumer Confidence/Spending reasons.  So... We just have to realize Consumer Spending will fix the GDP numbers but not as quickly as anyone would like.

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#2) On March 02, 2009 at 3:01 PM, briyan (30.87) wrote:

Hey there, Best Buy's stock price, I don't think we have an economic turnaround brewing.

There we go. 

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#3) On March 02, 2009 at 4:37 PM, Varchild2008 (84.67) wrote:

BBY is nearly $27 a share.  That's still a tremendous amount over it's 52-week low.  Unless investors are completely wrong, there definitely is RETAIL sector optimism right now.

Don't underestimate the power of Consumer Spending to turn an economy around.  Track GALLUP's consumer spending numbers.  If they trend up then in 6 months I'll be right.

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