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SEEDs will shine through 2009

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June 02, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: SEED , MON , SYT

The agricultural industry has done quite well for the past year and a half. Many of these stocks use to be out of favor as they were dependable, but there was very little upside in these investments. Demand for agriculture has been relatively stable worldwide with respect to all of the commodities. Now that the United States is putting 20% of its corn crop into ethanol the commodities price is up and the move of acreage to corn from soybeans and wheat has caused both to increase. This is not the whole story as emerging markets are a bigger push in the price of food commodities. Since prices had maintained for so long, infrastructure has not been invested in, and this has caused inventories to go to historic lows. My call on Monsanto is up 14% in the last 150 days on theupdown.com.

With the meteoric rise, most have heard of Monsanto. Sygenta has also been tossed around and has realized decent gains, although eclipsed by Monsanto. SEED is also another player and they are based out of China. China's market has hit a snag as global inflation has decreased growth. Even with the downside, SEED still seems well positioned based on China's change in eating habits. They are beginning to change to a meat based diet and this will increase demand for things such as corn with respect to feed for cattle and poultry. Once a country begins to eat meat, they do not stop historically, and this could mean even more drawdowns in these markets. As of 2006, SEED has developed numerous corn, rice and canola hybrids. They were the first private seed company in China, which makes them well placed long term as it is seen that the companies that first get started in China have a strangle hold on the market. A good example would be LFC.

These companies are seem to be priced high but they are not. Due to the new changes in seeds, they have become technology company. SEED has GMO technology which is currently working on herbicide, insecticide and drought tolerance. Even better China is the second largest planter of corn in the world with 67.7 million acres. Other significant developments are that China should become a corn importer as of 2009. China's corn yields are currently 50%-60% that of the US. China has not embraced biotechnology yet, but it is thought that is only because they want to use their own seeds. Their soil is not well suited for corn in many areas and that is anther reason to embrace biotechnology. China is losing farm land at an alarming pace. In 2006, they lost 121.8 million hectares. 12.3 million hectares are contaminated by pollution (an increasing problem for China. They lost $2.6 billion in grains from heavy metal contamination alone. 55% of China's land is dry, but with a new drought resistant technology, will be suitable for planting. From 2000 to 2005 meat consumption has increased 26%.

On valuation, the company's forward PE of 23.86 seems very inexpensive when the type of growth the company could have. There are not analyst estimates with respect to earnings for this quarter, but full year expectations are $.19 versus -$.94 last year. I believe you can buy into earnings or wait for a pullback. This entire sector is well placed and China's protectionist policies will help this company grow into an earnings giant, just think what will happen if a low cost provider of seeds hits the market with biotechnology that works well, there will be an unbelievable cycle of growth especially when farmers are saying that the price of seeds doubled from last year and Roundup tripled.

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 08, 2009 at 8:17 AM, JWD26 (< 20) wrote:

Do you know who their competition is in China?  I don't mean Monsanto, Pioneer, Syngenta, etc.  There may be private companies or companies pubic on HK / Shanghai exchanges that could be doing similar things.

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