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starbucks4ever (98.98)

September 2008

Recs

17

November 09, 2010 – Comments (9)

Doesn't it feel like the good old times just before Lehman's collapse? Inflation panic, commodities going parabolic, triple-digit oil, stock market optimistic because of expectation of liquidity from the Fed but concerned about purchasing power of consumers being eroded by Peak Oil, a counterintuitive rise of bonds, crappy stocks outperforming good ones, emerging markets mania...Something very strange is going on. I'll be surprised if we don't see some dramatic trend change in the next few months.

 

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 09, 2010 at 9:11 PM, goalie37 (94.46) wrote:

I keep thinking the same thing.  These jerks are gonna crash the system all over again.

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#2) On November 09, 2010 at 9:17 PM, starbucks4ever (98.98) wrote:

Maybe. But I expect something different this time. History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

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#3) On November 09, 2010 at 10:18 PM, VExplorer (30.48) wrote:

+ 1 rec. May be this time "they" will able to keep market under control, just "correct" it a little bit. Real crash should be later (in May? after oil will above $150?), but who know where market top before? IMHO, S&P500 should be under 1K now. So what? Just another human opinion... Crash may only if "big players" start receive "margin calls". It isn't in line with current FED policy...

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#4) On November 09, 2010 at 10:21 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

It really could be something different this time.....

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#5) On November 09, 2010 at 10:49 PM, starbucks4ever (98.98) wrote:

#3,

I am not so sure we can speak about the current Fed policy with great confidence. We know they are committed to keeping S&P at 1300-1400, but that's just the main commitment. And in addition to the main commitment they could have a hundred smaller commitments - such as wiping out this or that hedge fund, giving some special customer a flash crash he needs to enter the market, creating a crash spike so some systemic bank could unwind its positions, etc. Remember that September 2008? The commitment to support asset prices was there, but as we saw, it was not incompatible with the commitment to seize assets owned by Wamu and Wachovia and award them to JPM and WFC.

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#6) On November 09, 2010 at 11:01 PM, MegaEurope (24.98) wrote:

emerging markets mania

A few individual markets like India, China and Taiwan are frothy.  But many emerging markets are slightly cheaper than developed nations on a P/E basis, including Russia, South Africa, Phillipines, Singapore, Hong Kong and Brazil.

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#7) On November 10, 2010 at 10:38 AM, Dintaurran (< 20) wrote:

I wasn't aware oil had reached triple digits.

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#8) On November 10, 2010 at 1:59 PM, Imperial1964 (97.93) wrote:

Said pretty-much the same thing three weeks ago. 2008 deja vu. Does anyone else feel it?

Now in his latest article, John Hussman has some similar thoughts.

But I do not think it feels like September '08 at all.  Not that I expect history to precisely repeat itself, but it is feeling more like April or May '08 to me.

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#9) On November 10, 2010 at 7:30 PM, starbucks4ever (98.98) wrote:

#7,

Oil is below 90, but the talk about triple-digit oil is there

#8,

Well, maybe. Spring of that year was also a most irrational time.  

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