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Sharing With My Foolish Friends



October 02, 2008 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: COF , POT , TRA.DL

One of the benefits of CAPS is the ability to share personal info with other members to help them with things they might not know or otherwise be able to discover about the companies they might be considering investing in.  Here's one from me today:

I got some "junk mail" from Capital One, asking me to phone their 1-800 number to discuss anything with them that I would like regarding my credit card (me already being a Capital One customer).  Long story short, after months of me trying to get my interest rate lowered to no avail, they've gone proactive trying to keep their customers happy (finally).  They enrolled me in a cash back rewards program, as well as lowering my interest rate by 5%.  Frankly, they could've done better than that, but it's a start.  Sounds like they know something is about to hit the fan and they're doing their best to minimize the damage.

The other things I wanted to mention and ask those more educated than myself are:

1)  What happened today that send all the fertilizer stocks plummetting?  What did I miss?

2)  What do you think will be the short/long-term ramifications of the market if (or when) this new bail-out package passes?

I'm guessing that it will take off and rally for a couple of weeks, and then sputter and languish for 12-24 months minimum.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 02, 2008 at 12:09 PM, goldminingXpert (28.69) wrote:

1) earnings miss.

2)rally for a few days then crash. 

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#2) On October 02, 2008 at 12:17 PM, DemonDoug (31.52) wrote:

Mosaic missed by 29 cents, but is still doing gangbuster business.  Part of me wants to green thumb MOS, POT, TRA, TNH, but another part of me just doesn't know enough about fertilizer companies to be confident enough to do that.  MOS p/e is now under 10, as well as all the other fertilizer plays except POT.

Anyone who knows any fertilizer companies out there want to chime in?  I'm more of an oil, cigarettes, booze, tech, and health care expert.

For the bailout, the market will rally for 3 days.  It may go up over 1,000 points, it will easily go up 500.  After 3 days the SEC is going to end the ban on short selling (or 10/17 if there is no bailout), so this is setting up for the October crash that I mentioned in a previous blog post.

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#3) On October 02, 2008 at 12:22 PM, blake303 (28.54) wrote:

I have a Master Card serviced by Barclays that I only use for business expenses. I literally received ten calls the other day asking if I would like to pay immediately over the phone for free, which would only save me the cost of a stamp as I see it. I have a low four-figure balance, my account is not past due, and my next payment is not scheduled for another two weeks. I have had the card for over five years and have never recieved a call, even when payments were late. If they are worried about expediting payments from a small fish like me, how badly do they need capital? I never trade on experiences like "the line at Chipotle is always out of the door" (and I couldn't anyway with the shorting ban), but I gave BCS a red thumb in my CAPS account. It's not like my score is going to suffer.

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#4) On October 02, 2008 at 12:27 PM, tomnsung (66.13) wrote:

I am not more educated than you, but I saw a report by Dow-Jones this am (and also heard on the radio) that MER downgraded MOS from buy to underperform.    























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#5) On October 02, 2008 at 12:29 PM, kdakota630 (28.92) wrote:

I saw that MOS had missed earnings, but I couldn't get any more details about it through CAPS without getting that error 404 message.  I didn't think it would affect all the fertilizer companies so dramatically though, especially when I read that Mosaic's sales had doubled.

As for the credit card thing, about 5 minutes after my post, my wife got a call from another credit card company to get some information about applying for their card.

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#6) On October 02, 2008 at 1:02 PM, goldminingXpert (28.69) wrote:

fertilizer was a bubble, POT is still 3x overvalued.

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#7) On October 08, 2008 at 10:21 PM, EROConnor (71.23) wrote:

In regards to TRA, I wondered the same thing myself. 

Considering its ridulously (at least at first glance) high earnings yield (ttm) and giganitic returns on capital (its a magic formula stock), I figured it was worth doing a little DD on. 

I ended up going to VIC (a 45 day guest membership is all that is needed) and uncovered a couple of past TRA write-up's.  One written a few months ago, the other written a few years previous.  The older write-up was a long, the more recent one was a short.  Interestingly enough, both were written by the same author. I found them to be incredibly helpful. 

I would explain my thoughts further, but I am actually heading out the door.  Take a look if your still interested, I think you will find them to be quite helpful in answering your questions


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