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Vet67to82 (< 20)

Shipping 'n $200 crude - part 2



June 21, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: DHT , FRO , SFL

 Like I wrote in my post: "Do a search, read the articles, ..."  It's not inside information. It's public, reported information.
Per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) the crude supply has declined 5 weeks in a row. Now, let's look at the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) which tracks spot market crude tanker route day rates:
( Date ... Index ... Percent Change)
6/9/2008   ... 1793 ... 0.73
6/10/2008 ... 1792 ... (0.06)
6/11/2008 ... 1849 ... 3.18
6/12/2008 ... 1977 ... 6.92
6/13/2008 ... 2010 ... 1.67
6/15/2008 ... 2026 ... 0.80
6/16/2008 ... 2037 ... 0.54
6/17/2008 ... 2058 ... 1.03
6/18/2008 ... 2084 ... 1.26
  So, the USA crude supply is declining but the BDTI is increasing?  The importance of this is: many shipping companies trade on the spot market and many have time charter contracts that provide for profit sharing when the spot rate exceeds the time charter rate.  So, knowing what the Baltic Indicies (a product of the Baltic Exchange) are doing will give you an insight as to whether crude shipping companies (like DHT, SFL. FRO, VLCCF, etc) are going to report better earnings. When shipping co's report better earnings ... the stock price goes up.  But, here's another important item: Analyst UPgrades.  The shipping sector analysts are watching the BDTI go up.  Pretty soon, analysts will Upgrade individual shipping co's on the EXPECTATION the earnings are going to increase.  Those upgrades will also drive individual co's prices up!  Look at DHT's recent stock price action and look to see if there were any upgrades.  Pay attention to the market, the sector info, your company's info ... and you can beat the analysts EVERY time. . 

  If you re-read my post you'll see many question marks. I dont ask questions unless I already know the facts and the probable conclusion the facts point to. I don't expect anyone, and hope no one will, take my post as anti-Iranian. The Hunt brothers repeatedly DENIED they were trying to corner the silver market when silver went to $50 per troy ounce. If you read the stuff trying to sell you silver now ... NONE  attribute the $50 silver as market manipulation.  I simply ask the question(s) with enough detail so you can go look for yourself and form your own opinion. It's your money. Is the research not worth your time?

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 21, 2008 at 11:34 PM, misterpickles (< 20) wrote:

I don't see why your post would be anti-iranian?? Please explain..

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#2) On June 22, 2008 at 2:02 AM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

  Happy to explain, The last paragtaph actually refers to a different post for a different website.  I pointed out that, as of May 23d, 2008 Iran had 15-20 double hull tankers with an estimated 25+ million barrels of crude, at $135/barrel about $3.4 billion US, I pointed out if Saudia Arabia pumped an additional 300,000 barrels per day it'd take 83.3 days to equal the crude already sitting on tankers that aren't going anywhere.  Someone felt it wasn't my place to report that Iran might be withholding crude from the market to drive up the price.       

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