In reply to shanelofgren's CAPS Blog " The Rising Tide Does Not Float All Boats: Long Dry Bulk Short Tankers "
I wrote the following ...
(1) On May 04, 2010 at 1:42 AM, Vet67to82 (99.44) wrote:
CL Maritime Index 2,189.66 (+4.19%)
CL Tanker Index 2,731.71 (+4.85%)
CL Drybulk Index 1,068.60 (+2.90%)
CL Container Index 2,232.40 (+2.74%)
CL LNG/LPG Index 2,263.75 (+1.56%)
CL Mixed Fleet Index 1,665.96 (+3.16%)
CL MLP Index 2,331.47 (+1.81%)
As of Mon. May 3, 2010
Great post, good work and thought provoking. +1 Rec.
Of the tanker companies ... I like NAT, SFL, FRO, OSG, and especially DHT, etc. The Tanker "day rates" are increasing ... and the 40% tax boost on Australia's miners ... may put a short term crimp in the dry market until that gets sorted out.
Dry bulk customers have to be concerned the Australian tax increase is going to come out of their pocket through comodity price increases ... can you see China getting ticked with that?
As far as the "new" ships, whether dry or tanker, clean or dirty .... the ships aren't going to load /offload themselves ... nor get themselves from point A to point B without crews.
I was on Stealth Gas's (GASS) conference call when the CEO lamented the " ... industry wide lack of seasoned crews ..."
I was also on another conference call with Shipping industry analysts ... and the moderator took my question about " ... crews ..." ... you could hear the analysts SQUIRM for an answer. That the analysts ( ha, ha!! ) were blindsided by my question ... a question they surely should have considered in their analysis ... leaves me questioning what else "they" missed.
That's why I do my own homework. Obviously, new crews ... if you can find the people, can be trained. The most likely scenario, is that the crews from older ships will be transferred to the new ships and the older ships will be relegated to storage, or refitted ( such as to service offshore oil rigs ), anchored 'til needed, or retired.
But here is a diamond you haven't mentioned ... or considered.
The "green" the planet and save the oceans has hit the shipping industry. The ISO has proposed a maximum of 2.00 parts per million (ppm mg/kg) of H2S in bunker fuel from July 2012 to officially regulate this important test parameter.
Also, when crude went to +147/bbl, bunker fuels went to +$500/tonne and the ships SLOWED down. Now, the use of bunker fuels ( the dreggs left when the refineries have coaxed everything out of them they can ...) is being phased out and more expensive diesel MUST be used ... so the additional ships are now NECESSARY, as the slowdown means world stockpiles will be used up FASTER than they can be replenished ... unless you ADD MORE ships.
Hopes this helps ...
and (2) ...:#4)
On May 04, 2010 at 1:46 AM, Vet67to82 (99.44)
Check out my blogs on Shipping ... and the Contango ... There's quite a bit of info there ....
Sorry ... is it a plug for previous blogs? Yes .... BUT, ( ... there's always a but isn't there? ) does anyone like endless repeats of the same info ... NO. Do I want to keep re-printing the same info ... NO. Will anyone READ the previous posts and rec them ... that is a possibility.