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IBDvalueinvestin (98.38)

Shocking Truth



December 08, 2009 – Comments (1)

I can't stay on the Sidelines when I can take advantage of today's manipulation

Stocks down today on Dollar strength & Greece downgrade.

LOL, Greece gets a downgrade and US stock futures fall?? Greece is a tiny share of US markets mainly only Drybulk shipping, (Majority of drybulk shippers are based in Greece.) The dollar rising is also  short-lived, The FED is still not gonna raise rates till 2nd half of 2010. No matter how you look at it, the dollar will still revert back to falling at least until March or April.

Another thing for bears to worry about is the fact that the markets never go down on rising interest rates. The main reason rates go up is because of a strong economy and when the economy is strong PE's get lower and thus stock prices adjust by going up.

Stocks go down when interest rates are declining, rates are lowered because the economy is crashing and stocks then crash as well.


Shippers like Fedex and UPS are perfect indicators of the economy and when I see FEDEX giving guidance like they did today, I know stocks will be reporting strong earnings. Because when Fedex is shipping on the upside that means the economy is turning around strongly. 

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 08, 2009 at 9:56 AM, brickcityman (< 20) wrote:

A few counterpoints...


Wasn't Fedex's better guidance based on cost cutting and better international projections?  Thats not exactly a resounding endorsement for the near term future of the US.


The fact that Greece is an epicenter for dry bulk shipping should not be overlooked.  Drybulk is the raw material of the global economy, there's a reason the Baltic Dry Index is watched by many.  Of course it could be that there is excessive over capacity (glut of new ships) in the dry bulk sector, and on that point I cannot intelligently argue.  Nevertheless I would not be so wanton about dismissing such things.


Problem is I cannot necessarily argue with your desire to re-invest (assuming you really did powder up as you said a week or so ago).  There might very well be trading opportunities that you can capitalize on...  Just beware the slot machine phenomenon.  You may win big playing poker, but unless you can cleanly exit the casino and return with a clear head you're bound to fritter away your winnings on slot machines as youleave.

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