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SharePlanner (< 20)

Short GLD At $133.62

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January 18, 2011 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD

Finally have something in play this morning - the Gold ETF (GLD). I'm actually shorting it, which makes for my first short position of the new year. My stop-loss is at the point where it tries to fill the gap from earlier this month (1/4). There is a lot of resistance overhead in the form of moving averages and price resistance - not to mention the glaring triple-top that is in place. A very solid risk/reward setup at this point. 

Here's my chart analysis on GLD.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 18, 2011 at 11:42 AM, silverminer (30.64) wrote:

With all due respect, I am skeptical that you have a firm grasp of the risks associated with such a trade. I wish you the best, and I join you in hoping for a deeper correction than we've had so far so I can back up the truck for the next leg higher, making a bet against this gold market represents an incalculable risk in this macro environment. I have advised repeatedly over the past several years -- though unfortunately many have ignored my advice and been badly burned shorting gold -- that one is encouraged to avoid gold if they don't recognize the magnitude of the remaining upside drivers ... but shorting this metal is perhaps the least defensible bet anywhere in this casino we call the equity markets. If you feel the need to short something, try long-dated treasuries.

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#2) On January 18, 2011 at 12:42 PM, SharePlanner (< 20) wrote:

I appreciate the heads up - fully aware of the long-term implications surrounding the appreciation of gold. I'm looking at this from a very short-term perspective. 

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#3) On January 18, 2011 at 12:54 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

China just came out 3 days ago Share and said the dollar is "product of the past"  i am not real sure you want to be "shorting" anything that has real value against it right now...dont fall in love with a chart...fall in love with a fundamental story 

 

 

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#4) On January 18, 2011 at 12:55 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

try shorting WYNN

 

you got a much better chance

 

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#5) On January 18, 2011 at 1:11 PM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

You are braver than I am SharePlanner.

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#6) On January 18, 2011 at 7:33 PM, TheDumbMoney (43.53) wrote:

I find myself shocked to agree with silverminer/Sincheruna on anything, but no way would I short GLD or indeed any commodity index or stock in real life.  As Warren Buffet once said, "a pack of lemmings looks like a bunch of individualists compared with Wall Street once it gets a concept in its teeth."  Right now the concepts are: 1) central banks have devalued fiat money so we need "real" stores of value; and 2) Chinese and other emerging middle class demand will drive commodities to the moon; and 3) things are different now, such that population and development has placed so much strain on limited commodities, particularly metals, that demand will vasly outstrip supply.  Now, I totally disagree with the premise and logic of #1.  I think 2 is somewhat valid, actually.  I think #3 is excessivly pessimistic about human ingenuity in the face of rising costs, and our ability to find new ways and means.  I'm confident enough I'm correct in the long-term that I'm not a buyer.  But short these things?  Not on your life.  For the same thing that turns me away from them (no cash flows, ultimate total reliance on macro-analysis), tells me I have no idea where or when the tide will ultimately turn.

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