August 13, 2011
– Comments (21) |
RELATED TICKERS: GLD
if i had any guts i'd short gold now.
looking for a 30% drop; as soon as it starts going down there will be panic selling.
i'll short it for CAPS anyway.
why? I'm not going to sell, but I'm looking for oportunities to buy. I don't expect gold up before Q2.5 or Q3 or European Q, but short? Risk is too high for me. A lot of overvalued garbage around, better bids.
I've been itching to profit from gold's demise for well over a year now, and dipped into the GLL ETF on 2 different occasions. I bought last fall, and was actually slightly up when the "Arab Spring" erupted, sending gold higher........then I tried it again at the end of QE2 with the prospect of the dollar rising, but the debt ceiling drama sent gold higher..........each time I've been lucky / smart enough to basically get out of the way when some major event shoots more momentum into gold, and I do think it is a bubble that will burst (debatable, I know) EVENTUALLY. But during the last 13 months I've seen strong arguments literally on a daily basis for gold's demise as well as strong arguments for gold's continued dominance. This story, from a fine website, finally got me out of the business of trying to outsmart the gold bugs. Maybe I'll dip my toe in again, but I doubt it. Maybe you'll have better luck than me!
on 11/8/11 I trade gold and end up with 60% profit in a day with long (1741 to 1765) but in next trading day I end up with 0%(thanks God no loss ) now I am on 100% cash in hande. what i do to long/short or sideline. my personal openion is that in short term it is a correction and in long run it will be a bull market. so how long it will go down?
Hehe. Just the idea of China panic selling their gold really gets me. Can't you picture them throwing the gold they've been acquiring for years into the pacific? AHHH PLEASE BUY OUR GOLD WE DON'T WANT IT. I bet the US would panic sell our gold too if we had any....
You could be right about a 30% correction, but timing it is always next to near impossible. Gold may rise another 25% before correcting.... who knows.
I just avoid shorting in real life.
And like clockwork gold is down for a few days and all the top callers begin coming out of the wood work. If I had a penny for every time I've seen this happen during gold's bull market, I'd be able to buy myself an ounce...
I can guarantee that buyers, including myself will be coming out long before gold is down 30%.
I can guarantee that buyers, including myself will be coming out long before gold is down 30%
It is easy to say this now...but if/when it happens most will be questioning whether their long term thesis is still in tact.
I agree that timing tops and bottoms is truly a Fools game but I do think that shorting Gold has a compelling story at this moment in time. How to play it best is something I am pondering right now. : )
I still have a decent amount of $'s in a Precious Metals and Mining Fund at the moment though. And Cramer says Gold is money and we will eventually be using gold coins for currency...which I find interesting coming from him.
December 2011 Puts perhaps?
Frankydontfailme (83.19) you are completelly wrong about mentality of people in developing world. In time of currency crisis nobody will sell gold/silve. I experienced at least 5 denominations of local currencies in my life. I asked my collegues from India and China: when people will sell their gold? the same answer - NEVER, it is not for sale. I know it is silly from American's point of view. Mojor difference: Americans are support thier system, Russians, Indians, Chineese, Brasilians are not. It is not related to patriotism, it is related to economical safety. World will change, then people of developed countries finally accept they CANNOT be supported by system any more.
I was being sarcastic VExplorer, I'd only sell some of my gold if it went absurdly parabolic, and will be buying on dips.
If I see gold in the 1580-1650 range I will jump at the opportunity and wouldn't question my long term thesis for a second. I doubt it gets much lower than 1680 though.
Thinking it will lose 30% from these levels is absurd.
The world is finally starting to see gold for what it is, the only pure safe-haven. If you believe the chaos is just starting, then do not sell gold.
Sure, the chaos COULD temporarily subside in the next few months (I doubt it), this would cause a minor dip.... to be bought.
I am not a gold investor, but would HIGHLY suggest reading this article before considering shorting gold anytime soon:
I'm not as savy as many of you when it comes to investing and can only speak from my experience. I've watched the acceleration of gold for quite a while, and reluctantly bought in at around $1200, which was the best thing I could have done. People having been calling this a bubble since before it hit $1000 and I think they'll be doing the same when it hits $2000. Sure there will be corrections and may get a slight hit with the improvement of Treasuries, but it seems to be the only safe haven for every economy around the world and I don't see a major sell-off unless real estate, employment and the banking industry vastly improves. Gold prices have little to do with stock prices these days.
Do please short it. This is bad advice, but good for the market. We need people to sell in order to buy at better prices.
Think of it as a contribution to students of the Austrian School of economics. Or as payment for the education you will get from losing the payment.
Speculation helps the market to find the 'right' price more quickly than without it. Those who speculate correctly are rewarded with profits and those guess wrong are punished with losses. Now you can make your decisions via dart-throwing, astrology, crackpot theories, or correct theories, but the market will sort them out in the long run.
Start your self-education at mises.org, fee.org, or http://oll.libertyfund.org/
Or just short gold.
I wouldn't take a gamble like this in real life and I don't short anything, but I think Gold is in a bubble and if the people who drove it up from 1200 to 1800 hear some news that throws their Armageddon theories in doubt, then they will abandon gold faster than you can say "Midas". After all, gold is only worth this much if the economy is going down the tubes.
In real life I bought a silver miner, AG. With Sept-Oct approaching I'm nervous about the stock market and i'm nervous about gold and i'm nervous about bonds and holding cash whenever things are scary is a loser's game, so I bought AG. Makes perfect sense, right?
they will abandon gold faster than you can say "Midas" (C)
it is your opinion, no more. fro my point of view it is wrong opinion. by the way, I own some physical gold, abroad. It is even not easy to sold it, and I'm not planning to sold it next 20 years. I hold it as kind of Roth IRA and add some 5% of my income to it.
So, buy GLL or DGZ!
The price of gold will overshoot the fundamentals sooner or later. It will probably do so by quite a bit if 1980 is any guide. When that happens a gold short will be profitable, but very risky. But calling top on the gold market is difficult and your timing has to be precise.
Too much risk for me.
I see minor correction to gold prices in the next 3-6 months but more importantly I see continued positive upside to gold. You see we are essentially screwed at this time. Fiscal policy is a total mess. Bernanke, who gets way too much unfair criticism, has two choices 1) keep printing money and pray the dollar doesn't implode 2) stop printing and pray the recession doesn't turn into great depression 2.0. If you've read Bernanke's research papers you know he is a true money printer. Whether this trajectory destroys the dollar or not, I just don't see anything stopping the gold train in the near future.
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Hopefully a different collection of anatomical part keeps you making this mistake. This is not the time to short. If you are looking to make some serious bucks in PMs going forward look into silver.
thanks for all the comments. no i haven't shorted gold, or anything else. and i now think that the recent drop may have been the only correction we'll see for awhile. but i do think that silver will easily outperform gold in 2012.
Gotta confess, if you had shorted gold in August, you could have made some money. Getting out in October or late December to now would have netted $100-350 per ounce, depending on just when you executed.
Still, the advice not to do so was wise, as this would have been very risky. I suspect that most "weak hands" have been shaken out by now, so there is a firm basis for another long rise in the coming months.