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Varchild2008 (84.64)

Should You QUIT Your Retirement Account?

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February 03, 2011 – Comments (6)

Here's my situation...   I developed a fairly safe way to analyze stocks based on a set number of factors through Motley Fool (CAPS) Screening Program.

Based on that I spotted (MKSI) back when it was $20.80 and today it is $29.79, a better than 43% jump.

Should I just...uhm....get insanely aggressive here?  Am I on to something?

Can I spot some more big moves with this strategy or would I be playing with fire?

Here's my situation:

(F)  Ford is a Double+ Bagger for me, yes, even after the price fell below $16.00.  $18.00 even marks it as a Triple Bagger.

(DPS)  Is better a Double Bagger for me at $40.00.

(GAME)  Is priced with a solid profit for me right now if I sold it tomorrow.


So... Let's say I just QUIT my entire retirement strategy and went for it all...double or nothing...straight into whatever STOCK I believe is the next one to jump sky high.

I know what you are thinking... Varchild, you'll get burned because you are not Nostrodamus.

But....I can't help but think that I am at a level having been in the market since March 2008 where I can spot these things....With this simple way to stock pick:

A)  Look for stocks trading with really low volume

B)  Of those stocks, search for ones in a economic field that I am most knowledgeable with.

C)  Identify any obvious Sales Discounts and Potential at Retail Outlets for the company's products to start selling like hot cakes.   Like when Paul's T.V. was giving away Video Game Systems with the purchase of an LCD T.V.  That motivated me to like MKSI.

D)  P/E  Should be single digit or significantly below the average P/E in its industry.

E)  Debt Free Stock with an Insane amount of Cash on balance sheet... At least $1.00.

F)  Must be a Mid-Cap or Small-Cap stock.

So.....Yea...Kicking myself here for not jumping on board MKSI, abandoning my Stock Portfolio for this approach.

Course... if I can somehow find more than 1 stock that fits this modus opperendi then why not diversify among those 2 or 3 stocks that are sitting, waiting, for people to notice them?

Just getting sick and tired of identifying smash hit stocks, months later they soar sky high, and I am sitting with the same stocks that I've bought and held for years....

Of course, I won't make a move until Earnings Season is over.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 03, 2011 at 5:00 PM, Varchild2008 (84.64) wrote:

In case you are wondering....

My mood right now is to dump everything straight into (GME).

It drops 4% because investors think GME is going away due to digital distribution.

Hmm...... I guess no one is paying any attention to Kongregate or Jolt.

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#2) On February 03, 2011 at 6:27 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

Why not hold onto your current holdings and put just a portion of your portfolio towards these picks? You don't want to be caught holding 3 little-noticed stocks should the market enter a significant correction.  You could end up down 50% just as easily as you could see huge gains...then you need to earn 100% just to catch up... 

It's frustrating to not act on an idea and, months later, realize that you should have made that trade.  However, it is far more frustrating to vary from your proven plan and look back and realize that a steady course would have worked out better....

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#3) On February 03, 2011 at 8:38 PM, vriguy (78.46) wrote:

You aren't quitting your retirement account. sounds like you are just investing it very aggressively. Good luck.

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#4) On February 04, 2011 at 10:22 AM, Melaschasm (65.13) wrote:

Going all into one stock is a bad idea. 

Lets say you are right 99% of the time.  You could go all in and double your money 99 times, but if your pick number 100 goes to zero because criminal activity by the management is discovered right after you buy it, you end up with nothing.

However, if you put 10% of your money into each double, you will not lose everything, while each double will still have a big impact upon your total wealth.

A final word of caution.  Your multibagger picks have come during a time when the S&P has doubled.  Would your methods have worked if you bought right before the market crashed in 2008?

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#5) On February 04, 2011 at 6:17 PM, Varchild2008 (84.64) wrote:

After some thought... I still can't bring myself to pull the trigger and become far more aggressive than I should.

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#6) On February 04, 2011 at 6:18 PM, Varchild2008 (84.64) wrote:

Oh and (GME)  BTW  is up huge today....Think about that for those who think my strategy doesn't work.

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