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TMFAleph1 (95.36)

Should You Sell in May? Read This First.

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April 30, 2012 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY , VOO , BRK-B

Should You Sell in May? Read This First.

 

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 30, 2012 at 6:17 PM, Mega (99.97) wrote:

Did you assume investment in bonds (T-bills? broad index?) or cash in May through October?  Your article does not say.

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#2) On April 30, 2012 at 6:30 PM, TMFAleph1 (95.36) wrote:

Hi MegaShort,

You're right that I didn't say so explicitly, but I implied it in saying that I was addressing the shortcomings of the NDR methodology, one of which is that " it assumes that when the money isn't invested in stocks, it earns no return whatsoever instead of being invested in Treasury bills."

To be clear: I assume that the money is invested in T-bills when not invested in stocks. 

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#3) On April 30, 2012 at 6:46 PM, Mega (99.97) wrote:

Thanks, I missed that.

Interesting article.  I think seasonality isn't strong enough to be a primary investment criterion but it can play a supporting role.

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#4) On May 01, 2012 at 11:44 AM, Teacherman1 (26.53) wrote:

Another interesting article Alex.

My strategy is buy cheap, buy even cheaper if the May - October drop off is real, then sell some if the Nov - April run up comes into play.

Or, just watch the individual company and forget about the "changing of the seasons".

Thanks for taking the time to do the research.

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#5) On May 01, 2012 at 5:51 PM, TMFAleph1 (95.36) wrote:

@Teacherman1,

Thanks for your interest. Your comments ring true -- whether one is a stockpicker or an asset allocator, valuation discipline is the linchpin all of intelligent investing. 

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