alstry (35.90)

Shrink or Die

September 25, 2008 – Comments (2)

First, let's get one point clear....we have too many fricken homes in America.

Home prices in America are crashing and will continue to crash until prices reflect incomes.

Next, Public Homebuilders are sitting on way too much debt and have way too much overhead for the current sales paces.

Homebuilders must contract their size or they will go bankrupt in the current environment.

The problem is that there is no way for homebuilders to liquidate assets to pay down debt and reduce overhead as assets are difficult to sell in this environment.

Managment's are inflating the value of the assets on the books.

Many homebuilders have more debt than they have assets.

When this becomes clear....many will realize the many many public homebuilders are insolvent.

How long will this take......

But until we recapitalize homebuilders to appropriate debt levels....they will simply keep overbuilding to kee this charade going.