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ChrisGraley (29.80)

Sifting through lies in Japan

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March 16, 2011 – Comments (20)

First, I'm really hoping that mikecart jumps in on this thread. I'm just going to state a few things that I know Japan is lying about.

First, those 50 brave souls that you keep reading about are as good as dead. If they don't die from direct exposure, they will die from cancer. I believe that the current report is 4 dead, 2 missing and 21 injured. I'm betting the 21 injured already have radiation sickness.

When it was announced that reactor 4's fuel pond had boiled dry, their fate had been sealed. The amount of radiation that they would have been exposed to is simply too much to overcome.  

Also containment is definately breached on the #3 reactor. They wouldn't be dropping water from a helicopter if there weren't cracks in the containment chamber for the water to seep through. 

Given those 2 things alone, this is a catastrophe of mass proportions. They could have a miracle and stop all radiation leaks this second and they have already doomed everyone that stays in a 50 mile radius for the next 20 years. The water that they have been spraying and dumping on the reactor will contaminate the water table and it will stay contaminated for the next 300 years.

If the winds shift towards Tokyo with the amount of radiation that has already been released, this will be more devasting to the population than Chernobyl was.

This is the bad news if they don't have a meltdown.

If they have a meltdown, this will be the worst disaster ever. 

 

 

20 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 16, 2011 at 10:37 PM, whereaminow (< 20) wrote:

Man I pray you are wrong.

I have no idea, but I just pray you are wrong.

(And I'm sure you feel the same way.) 

David in Qatar 

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#2) On March 16, 2011 at 10:43 PM, ChrisGraley (29.80) wrote:

I wish I was wrong.

The thing that I can't deal with is that the people in Tokyo and every other town in the area are being lied to and it will result in needless exposure to radiation.

 

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#3) On March 16, 2011 at 10:48 PM, soycapital (< 20) wrote:

It is a deep mystery to me why the government/authorities did not extend all effort towards this problem right away. For example, if there is no power for the pumps bring in power by air immediately. All the power that was needed to run those pumps or whatever could have been airlifted in days ago. Assign whatever people and resources are needed RIGHT away. I have to say that if it were my country and so many lives were at stake I would go myself as I'm sure many others would. I pray to God they get it stopped. I pray that it is not too late. I pray wisdom for those running the show that they will do all that is possible on the ground to prevent a total meltdown.

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#4) On March 16, 2011 at 11:00 PM, russiangambit (29.46) wrote:

I agree with #3, the explanations don't make sense. If back up generators weren't operational they could've flown  other generators in  matter of 1 hour. Something really serious is going on there. It is so bad now that they can't even get close using helicopters. Do they not have guided robots, though? I am sure military has some, which could be used  to see inside . Why are they not using those? It makes no sense.

All the signs tell me the situation is out of control.I feel sick about it.

It evolves exactly as BP disaster - 1. everything is under control 2. Ooops, we can't even get there to see what is going on 3. It will take us 3 months to plug it

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#5) On March 16, 2011 at 11:21 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

Watch It LIVE..... http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nhk-world-tv

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#6) On March 16, 2011 at 11:24 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

There Is still water In #4 pond at the present time. #3 Is the worst one right now.    http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/japan-nuclear-plant-just-48/558439

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#7) On March 16, 2011 at 11:27 PM, ChrisGraley (29.80) wrote:

My guess is that it was determined that connecting new pumps and generators would result in too much exposure to radiation and was too dangerous.

I posted yesterday that pumping seawater was a last ditch effort and makes the reactor un-usable.  They would have thought about every other scenario before pumping in sea water.

I myself was wondering why they didn't have guided robots to at least spray water.

I'm sure that someone had to think about it enough to rule it out, but I can't think of why. 

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#8) On March 16, 2011 at 11:30 PM, awallejr (75.63) wrote:

Oil slicked seagulls and radioactivity are two different things.  Why would it take days to airlift some kind of power supply system?  This should have been done within hours. Yes I pray for the people of Japan, but, on the other hand, I am vexxed as to why delays occurred. 

I am no expert on this subject.  However, there are experts, all, whom I am sure would give freely advice as to how to handle the situation.

This transcends the BP spill, where A LOT of bacteria were stuffed as a result of the dispersants used (and I have no clue how well fed bacteria will impact the food chain).

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#9) On March 16, 2011 at 11:34 PM, ChrisGraley (29.80) wrote:

The US says it was boiled dry and Japan says it wasn't.

The US doesn't have a reason to cause panic, but Japan has every reason to limit it.

The US is also advising Americans in Japan to evacuate an 80 KM radius and Japan is advising 20 KM.

Another thing that you aren't hearing much about is that the pressure relief valves on #6 are stuck and they have to send a worker out periodically to open a valve manually. 

 

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#10) On March 17, 2011 at 12:09 AM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

 High volume water pumps could be used. They make gas powered pumps that will suction the sea water. They will put out A LOT of water....   

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#11) On March 17, 2011 at 12:59 AM, jerryguru69 (95.40) wrote:

What bothers me about the media coverage is the same problem as other disasters, think Chernobyl or the Gulf oil spill, is that most of what we are getting right now are mostly rumors. Much of it is contradictory, most of it at least partly wrong, and this applies equally to presumed nuclear engineering 'experts'. We will not know the truth until many weeks after the fact.

The fact that the Japanese government has a bad habit of deliberately telling only a partial truth, which in my book is equivalent to telling a lie, is not helping. 

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#12) On March 17, 2011 at 10:11 AM, Teacherman1 (27.31) wrote:

May the Lord watch over and guide them in their efforts.

 

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#13) On March 17, 2011 at 10:56 AM, L0RDZ (78.55) wrote:

Wow not to sound argumentative, but what makes you the expert in this matter ?

Everyone eventually dies, but not everyones death are from heroic deeds.  Hopefully  they know what they are doing, but panicking people isn't smart.

Those who stayed behind to do their jobs probably don't consider themselves brave or special, they are just doing what needs to be done. 

Hopefully, they get smart and start using all the assets at their disposal, its not a time to be proud or stubborn,  all civilian and military assets  need to be used now.

Although I'm no expert in my opinion they should get a power line to get power up and running at these plants, just using the plants own systems to cool and contain the issues is much better.

They need to start cutting their losses and hopefully someone else is in charge rather than idiot executives who have fled the country.

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#14) On March 17, 2011 at 10:56 AM, PaxtorReborn (29.99) wrote:

Yeah, maybe God will send in another tsunami to cool the reactors this time instead of all the destruction

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#15) On March 17, 2011 at 11:01 AM, ETFsRule (99.92) wrote:

Re-posting this from the other thread:

Dropping water from helicopters just seems so futile. The reactors are right at the side of the ocean... I don't understand why they aren't using fireboats.

"Modern fireboats are capable of pumping tens of thousands of gallons of water per minute. An example is Fire Boat #2 of the Los Angeles Fire Department, the Warner Lawrence, with the capability to pump up to 38,000 US gallons per minute (2.4 m3/s; 32,000 imp gal/min) and up to 400 feet (122 m) in the air."

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#16) On March 17, 2011 at 9:50 PM, OneLegged (< 20) wrote:

The thing I can not get my head around is why the Hell the Japanese haven't flown in diesel generators and hooked them to the plants?  The generators could easily run the pumps/valves etc.    This could have been done in a matter of hours.  This electric line has taken a week to get to the plant. 

 I just don't understand .

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#17) On March 17, 2011 at 9:50 PM, OneLegged (< 20) wrote:

The thing I can not get my head around is why the Hell the Japanese haven't flown in diesel generators and hooked them to the plants?  The generators could easily run the pumps/valves etc.    This could have been done in a matter of hours.  This electric line has taken a week to get to the plant. 

 I just don't understand .

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#18) On March 17, 2011 at 11:04 PM, Thaeger (< 20) wrote:

The workers are safe--their exposure is capped at 25 rem, which is the minimum threshold for any acute symptoms.  They have an abundance of radiation detectors--some installed/passive, most with alarms--on site, so its not like they're going to be surprised by the fact that there's radiation, particularly given the circumstances.

http://mitnse.com/ "...Under a special allowance from the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, workers at Fukushima were permitted doses of up to 250 millisieverts. Managers must be careful to make the best use of those experienced workers with the most detailed knowledge and experience of the plant."

http://www.boingboing.net/dose%20table.png  (note 1:  normal lifetime incidence in U.S. is about 42% (of developing any cancer).  The increase in risk, i.e. 1 in 30 for 3,000 mSv (300 rem), changes the 42% to 42.03% chance of getting cancer in the exposed individual's lifetime." )

Regarding casualties ( http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Progress_by_on-site_workers_1703111.html )

In short, more people have been hurt by the explosions than anything.

--

"The small workforce battled to spray water into the damaged buildings of units 3 and 4, working when and where they could to avoid exceeding those radiation dose limits. World Nuclear News understands that the army fire engine was able to “deliver 30 tonnes of water” towards or into unit 3′s fuel pond, but this is not confirmed, nor is the expected drop in radiation levels expected to accompany it. However, Tokyo Electric Power Company has been able to significantly expand the workforce and a range of other activities are now taking place..."

So the fight is to top off some of the spent fuel pools, which in the absence of pumps/etc will evaporate as the fuel warms them up.  Since the water also acts as shielding, this causes spikes in the radiation levels until they can get them covered again (to say nothing of potential, minor damage to the spent fuel itself).  Remember that the spent fuel pools are above / outside the containment area the reactor vessel is in, and there's a long ways to go before they (the reactors or the spent fuel) make a mess of anything more than the plant itself. 

I know I read reports about people being contaminated by the steam.  The exposure will probably be on par with smoking a pack of cigarrettes or flying on an airplane, but we'll probably have to wait for details on that, unless you can content yourself with the endless speculation of the media, or people who're obviously biased one way or another.  Most potential nuclides are fairly shortlived (ie, decays to zilch within hours / days), but I believe there was some iodine and cesium mixed in, and those two have half lives of 8 and 10 days respectively

In any event,( http://mitnse.com/ ) put out the step-by-step of the worst case scenario, explaining what a melt down is and what kinda etc etc.

 

@11 Agreed--24/7 news outlets are a horrible place to find actual news.  They spend 20 seconds (mis-)reporting, and the rest of the hour speculating endlessly, and they do this for everything, even things that aren't even newsworthy (not referring to this, mind you) to begin with. If you keep to written articles, even if they're by the same media outlets, the quality goes up about 10 fold (also, BBC rocks).

@15  They are using hoses now, dunno about why they did/didn't do this or that before, though.

@17  About the diesels...the plant's backup diesels are massive, more like a train engine than portable diesel generator.  I dunno how big of a generator they'd need under the circumstances, or what other difficulties they've had, ie radiation levels, compatibility, etc

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#19) On March 18, 2011 at 8:52 AM, ETFsRule (99.92) wrote:

"So the fight is to top off some of the spent fuel pools, which in the absence of pumps/etc will evaporate as the fuel warms them up."

It's not just the spent fuel pools. The fuel is exposed in reactors #1,2,3, so there could be a lot of risk there. And the pressure in reactor #2 is unknown because of all the damage.

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#20) On March 18, 2011 at 11:53 AM, ETFsRule (99.92) wrote:

Updates on the reactors can be found here or directly from the JAIF here.

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