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XMFSinchiruna (26.58)

Sinchi's Collected Works - grouped by topic, and in reverse chronological order



October 07, 2009 – Comments (16)

With a shout-out to Bays for reminding me to do this, until we get our TMF profile boards tracking both articles and blog posts, here is a compilation of all my articles in reverse chronological order ... this time grouped by category.


Gold and Silver:

Gold Fields Draws a Treasure Map - targeting 1 million ounces per quarter by 2011.

Grab This Gold Bull by the Horns -  my perspective on the breakout to new highs.

Kinross Braces for the Perfect Storm - the long-term outlook for constrained mine supply. Important!

Yamana's Golden Age - the clearest bargain of the intermediate gold patch

Biggest Market Opportunity -derivatives, the dollar, and the gold outlook.

The Last Gold Bears Have Thrown in the Towel - On Barrick's canceling of hedges.

The Golden Standard in Silver - Silver Wheaton's transformational silver stream! Best silver play by far.

The Untld Story Behind This Golden Breakout - Some fundamental drivers behind gold's September surge.

A Ferocious Breakout by Precious Metals - reaction to the breakout

Gold's Next Monster Move - called for a breakout on the eve of the breakout based upon fundamentals and TA.

Follow the Yellow Brick Road to China - Eldorado Gold consolidates in China

Whence the Windfall Profits for Gold - Kinross and the derivatives problem.

Mirror, Mirror on Pan American's Wall - Discussion of the all-important all-in cost of production.

Coeur d'Alene Graduates With Honors - CDE's coming of age ... again! :) Amazing cash flow on the way.

The Incredible Irony of Paltry Gold Profits -  A critical discussion of Yamana's derivative exposure on currencies.

The Shining Star of the Silver Screen - I expect SLW to reach par. It's my largest holding.

Park Your Gold Cart on the Organic Growth Aisle - AEM ... low-cost growth, growth, growth! Top pick for 2009

What's Behind the Top-Performing Gold Stock - GOLD - Hedge exposure and underwater ARS exposure. Boo!

Worth the Wait -  slight delay at Boddington, now producing gold.

Anatomy of a World Class Gold Mine - Grasberg, Yanacocha, and Penasquito.

The Juiciest Potential Gold Acquisitions - some deals that could make good sense.

Yamana Trims the Golden Fat -  the market punished this move, but I liked the shedding of high-cost production

The Five Biggest Myths About Gold - what some observers continue to get wrong.

The Top Reasons to Holg Gold, Bar None! -  my comprehensive case for gold exposure.

The Precious Glory of an Instant 10-bagger - CDE's misinterpreted 1-for-10 stock split.

The Top Ten Reasons to Hold Gold, Part I -  derivatives, QE, declining revenue, eroding USD, and interventions.

Paulson's Pet Gold Miner Gets a Foolish Thumbs-Sideways - AU and its oppressive hedge book.

Silver Wheaton Locks in on Silver - SLWSpring earnings.

How Rich is Goldcorp? -  GG and its massive reserves.


Macroeconomic Analysis and Investment Strategies:

A Contrarian View on Housing - cracks in the foundation of purported recovery.

Tales of a Commodity Superstar - title is tongue-in-cheek, discussing my silverminer portfolio.

Considering a New Investment Paradigm - If you're investing with your pre-collapse paradigm, think again.

The Surreal Life of the U.S. Dollar -  The most mysterious news item of 2009 ... never properly explained!

Are You Ready for Round II of the Mortgage Meltdown -  This one is still being held off, but remains inevitable.

What the Crashing Dollar Means for You - the dollar's breakdown below .80 on USDX.

Please Don't Shoot the Messengers -  Insights from Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, and Jim Sinclair.


Steel Industry Coverage:

Time to Crank Start the American Industrial Machine -  steel-focused discussion of industrial landscape.

The New Floor Under Nucor -  Nucor's cautious bottom call

When Will Metalsmiths be Money-Makers - steel outlook

Get a Real Feel for Steel -A global steel outlook, debunking the denial of decoupling. :)

Saddle Up for the Straight Talk Express - Dan Dimicco's sobering assessment.

Don't Be Tempted by Illusory Steel Demand -  conflicting signals from domestic steel.

Cinco de Mayo Steel Report -  even Brazil not spared from market paralysis.

When Blazing Furnaces Go Stone Cold -  just how bad it got before inventories were depleted.

The Sheriff of Steel Strikes Again - POSCO weathers the correction in great shape.



Coal Investors in a Quandary - discussion of conflicting outlooks fom analysts

Profit from China's Exploding Resource Blitz -  China gets serious about dollar diversification

A Crash Course in ADRs - AAUK's quiet departure from the Nasdaq.

Massey Turns Lemons into Lemonade -  surprisingly robust quarter for MEE

Hey, Who Turned Out the Lights? - an L-shaped "recovery".

You Missed the Bottom in Coal -  Arch confirms some stabilization of domestic coal demand.

The Incredible 9-Bagger of the TECK Rally - TCK's return from the brink



Copper's Davd and Goliaths - TGB - Taseko's earnings ... amazing potential!

Two Strikes Against a Beloved Copper Miner -  PCU in focus.

Clearly I need to devote some more time to discussion copper. :)



Discover Royal Returns in Natural Gas - ERF as best choice for NG exposure + income.

Natural Gas is Waiting for You -  ETP and the midstream NG sector.

A Crude Awakening for Oilfield Services - LUFK and sector outlook.

5 Overlooked Gems of the Energy Market -  discussion of the CANROYS.

Detecting Tremors in Natural Gas - solid call on DWSN.


Equipment Manufacturers:

Outsourcing Becomes the New Insourcing - decoupling and the equipment sector.

All Hail the Oracle of Milwaukee -  JOYG always provides excellent insight.

Don't Get Mauled by Tyrannosaurus Terex - Terex looking terrible.

Bigger is Better, and Behemoths are Beautiful - BUCY - Bucyrus in focus.

Terex Won't Get Help Close to Home -  horrific results from Terex.









16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 07, 2009 at 9:46 PM, Bays (29.15) wrote:


Thanks, Sinch!

+1 rec for each

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#2) On October 07, 2009 at 9:54 PM, Option1307 (30.50) wrote:

Can you maybe stop writting so much Sinch, this amount of logic is too much to handle!

Thanks for the collection buddy, much appreciated.

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#3) On October 07, 2009 at 9:55 PM, Bays (29.15) wrote:


There is enough reading here for the next month.  I will tackle some at lunch tomorrow.

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#4) On October 07, 2009 at 10:02 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.58) wrote:


I'll tell you what's sick ... :)  Gold just topped $1,050 moments ago. I expected some trouble taking out that next psychological resistance point at $1,050. If that mark falls easily, the $1,150 to $1,250 range could come into play sooner rather than later, and that would set $1,000 as a likely permanent floor.

If the dollar does not make a strong and convincing move in the next few days, we could be heading to a break of 0.76 and straight down towards the previous lows. Next support after 0.76 breaks is 0.72. Near-term, we could either correct to $1,000 first or continue on ... as always it's impossible to forecast near-term movement with certainty, but the importance of taking out $1,050 this quickly relates to the continuity of this broader move above $1,000/$1,033.

Thanks again for the request, and thanks for reading.



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#5) On October 07, 2009 at 10:05 PM, Bays (29.15) wrote:

Discover Royal Returns in Natural Gas - ERF as best choice for NG exposure + income.

Great article.....  I never even heard of ERF till now.  Great margins and trading near book value too.

I blogged about the price difference of NG and oil not long after your blog, but I compared it on an energy basis.  Check it out... Natural Gas vs Oil

I luckily did find a bottom and made a quick 1 month trade on HNU.TO.   A leveraged NG ETF.  

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#6) On October 07, 2009 at 10:14 PM, RootnToot (29.54) wrote:

+1 rec for the Gold Czar!

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#7) On October 07, 2009 at 10:32 PM, 100ozRound (28.68) wrote:

Sinch - I just stopped by to tell you that Gold hit ten fifty.


But I see you already know....:)


All the best!

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#8) On October 07, 2009 at 10:47 PM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

+ 1 Rec and a sincere thank you.

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#9) On October 08, 2009 at 11:23 AM, leohaas (29.81) wrote:

Wow, I am gonna need several week to catch up on this. Great job!

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#10) On October 08, 2009 at 1:05 PM, uclayoda87 (28.73) wrote:

Thanks for the reference.  Rec.

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#11) On October 08, 2009 at 3:52 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.58) wrote:

5 Mid-Tier Miners With the Midas Touch

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#12) On October 08, 2009 at 4:08 PM, outoffocus (23.22) wrote:


I purchased a small "starter" position in AUY at $9.00 with the intention to average down.  Before I could set a limit order, gold shot up in price and hence AUY. Now its over $12 per share (currently sporting a 30% gain).  Is it still a buy or should I look for a better bargain?


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#13) On October 08, 2009 at 4:50 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.58) wrote:


I can't make that call for you (specific action calls), but I think my feelings on the topic are well expressed in this article:

Yamana's Golden Age

Whether Yamana rises or falls near-term will depend upon whether the dollar index climbs back above 0.76 support or continues downward to next support at 0.72. Very hard to say right here... gold looks strong but some sort of minicorrection could occur at any moment.

Keep thinking long term, and I'm sure you'll be fine. ;)

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#14) On October 08, 2009 at 5:23 PM, maxhoffa (< 20) wrote:

bookmarked, and thanks sinch.

a bit off topic, but do you have any thoughts on owning allocated gold?  so far all physical metal has gone into my safe, but i don't really want to store much more than i already have . . . in fact i might swap all my physical gold for silver bar and store only that in-house . . . but for physical gold, allocated holdings look good on paper, am looking at bullionvault and an everbank metals account . . . any thoughts on either (or alternatives)?


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#15) On October 09, 2009 at 11:00 AM, silverminer (29.87) wrote:


Sorry ... I don't have much to add to that topic. I keep my guidance confined to equities. I personally see no difference in allocated storage and unallocated exposure through the better-trusted equity proxies.

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#16) On November 06, 2009 at 9:18 AM, TMFSarahGen (97.31) wrote:

I know this is old, so you might not see it - but Wow!  That's a lot of gold posts!  Thanks for the link, i'll have to check them all out!!



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