Sinchi's Collected Works
In part to create a regular schedule for these monthly lists of links to my articles, but also because of the timely nature of the collective thesis I've developed over the course of recent weeks, I offer this update.
Since I cover so many sectors of the commodities space, I see patterns forming early, and I seek to pass those observations onto you all in a timely way. There is no denying the broader trend underway here... when every sector sings in unison, the song could not be clearer. The U.S. economy at large is in for a rude awakening in the coming months as industrial activity continues to wind down mercilessly, leading to the very unfortunate certainty that unemplyment rates will continue to rise sharply (notwithstanding the government numbers, which we know from inflation numbers must be treated with utmost scrutiny and skepticism).
It is my concerted opinion that anyone who takes the time to read each of the articles I've presented below will come to the same conslusion... that this rally is completely unsustainable given the massive disconnect between the recovery / "green buds" BS coming across the media wires and the objective facts as they unfold. Prior to these specific observations regarding ongoing deepening of the economic contraction, it's true that my analysis of macroeconomic trends as you are all familiar with had already led me to conclude that this 'recession' that everyone keeps looking for an end to is actually the tip of a multi-year depression that will test this country's fortitude to the core. What has been done to the dollar on a structural level can not be undone, and the impact upon U.S. economic activity is predictable with respect to the prevailing direction. The evidence I present here, though, has not been tainted by that prior conclusion. I have maintained a professional objectivity in drawing appropriate conclusions from the facts as presented, and so these articles represent a tapestry woven by the facts themselves.
As I keep saying, I am VERY SORRY to be the bearer of bad news. I do not enjoy having to report such unfortunate developments, but one thing I will never be accused of is digging my head in the sand. Wishful thinking has its place in life, but I'll take a heavy dose of reality any day so long as it keeps me closer to the truth. Enjoy, and please be careful out there!!
Your Very Own Canary in a Coal Mine - A comprehensive discussion of the domestic coal sector.
Bigger is Better, and Behemoths are Beautiful - Bucyrus' foreign clients keep this afloat.
When Blazing Furnaces Go Stone-Cold -A comprehensive discussion of domestic steel and aluminum.
The Chattanooga Choo Choo Boo Hoo - Norfolk Southern confirms observations from railroads.
Terex Won't Get Help Close to Home - Low expectations for stimulus and horrid sales deterioration.
The Slowest Way to Build a Small Fortune - Housing and construction have entered the abyss.
Skyrockets in Flight, Speculators' Delight -Watch for near-term price volatility in copper.
The Burden You Don't Want to Carry - Railroad CNI runs out of lifelines.
A Crude Awakening for Oilfield Services - Trudging through a 30% price correction.
Danger: Step Away From the Railroads - Conditions have only worsened since my previous alert.
Peabody's Play Within a Play - Diverging outlooks for Asia and the U.S.... decoupling is alive and well.
The Sheriff of Steel Strikes Again - More indications that the decoupling debate is not yet complete.
Survival Trumps Profit for Shippers - It's incredible how far the bar has fallen.
Gammon's Jammin' and Mining More Ore - An emerging leader in low-cost gold mining.
Buying Gold Below $300 per Ounce - Royal Gold makes out like a king.
To follow my chronological list back through time, please click here.