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April 09, 2008 – Comments (8)

How come it takes the IMF so long to predict a global economic slow down?

If you were to go back and look at my commodity blog you can see caution about investments going back to last summer.  Actually, seeing how I haven't seen any point in investing in them, and I couldn't see the world economy improving, I basically stopped researching stocks, although I am waiting to see some of the financial reports on stocks that I've followed to see where I've been right, where I've been wrong and the types of things I've missed.  I find there are lots of things in stocks that simply aren't transparent.  It is a tremendous amount of work.

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 09, 2008 at 11:20 AM, mandrake66 (72.42) wrote:

The IMF is hoping for a global economic slowdown. They used to lord it over every developing country when their loans were in demand. Now developing countries generally have huge cash reserves and multiple sources of funds, and the IMF is irrelevant. A global crash is the only way they can become important again.

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#2) On April 09, 2008 at 2:35 PM, Hezakiah (52.68) wrote:

The analysts are pretty slow to revise earnings as well.  Taken from the Big Picture:


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#3) On April 09, 2008 at 3:39 PM, abitare (29.95) wrote:


Concur - IMF irrelevant. 


Good post, as always


Great chart. 

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#4) On April 09, 2008 at 6:05 PM, dwot (28.99) wrote:

Serious Hezakiah, analysts seem to be just rehashing the earning after they come, that is what that chart is showing.  I look at it and I see proof of incompetence.

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#5) On April 09, 2008 at 6:44 PM, Zanibel17 (92.56) wrote:

I agree with you, dwot.

It's the same for ratings agencies, Treasury Secretary, NAR's spokesman, you name it.  They say whatever they want.   Nobody's researching jack squat.

Yet they get on CNBC or WSJ online and tell everybody the market bottomed March 17th and now's a great time to get back into financials.


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#6) On April 09, 2008 at 7:11 PM, Imperial1964 (93.95) wrote:

Ha.  I said it Monday and I stick with it:

This bear-market rally is over, even though most technicians are saying we've hit bottom.

Why?  Earnings. 

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#7) On April 09, 2008 at 8:52 PM, Tastylunch (28.56) wrote:

the day analysts are right is the day I get worried the apocalypse is here.

Seriously though I think there are societal, political and conflict of interest concersn that prevent the IMF and analysts from ever correctly prediciting a downturn. 

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#8) On April 11, 2008 at 8:56 PM, dwot (28.99) wrote:

Zanibel, agreed.

Imperial, earnings will implode.  Amazing the degree people look the other way...

Tastylunch, agreed. 

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