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Smith and Wesson will Be Taken Over. Rationing and Shortages are Here... Fool knew

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April 02, 2009 – Comments (20) | RELATED TICKERS: SWHC , RGR , FAZ

There are banks, realtors, fast food, convenient stores etc...every half mile in the US. But where is your local gun and ammo store? Where is your local shooting range?

Most Americans probably don't know... they probably have not seen it. A gun range? You would have to check the internet/yellow pages to try and find IT. That is going to change. (FYI- WalMart does/did carry some guns and ammo.)

There are/were 20+ homebuilder stocks, +20 finance companies, +20 "drybulk shippers", banks, REITS, retailer etc... 

How many gun and ammo makers are there listed in the US?

Three: SWHC, OLN, RGR. Right? (Fools let me know if I am wrong here)

A stock analyst (aka paid liars), from the known power house CL King! (What you have not heard of CL King? Me neither! lol) gave the guns and ammo makers a "downgrade", this week for blah, blah, blah, what ever..... and some insiders unloaded shares hard on us dumb masses. But SWHC will be taken over, either by a fund or by the government.

SWHC makes what Americans are going crazy for, guns. SWHC has been around a long time, in the dying North East of the US, where taxes, laws and labor cost kill most business dead. A move to the south where labor is near free, state and local taxes are reasonable, the laws and regs are forgiving and near the battle/war zone to the Southwest. These are some great reasons and move this very rare dinosaur company.

I am just guessing here, big people with big calculators will do the math, but IMO, it is just a matter of time for someone takes over this company. Under the new "Zimbabwe economics" the US is following the company could just be taken over out of "national interest" or whatever. That is the chance you take as a stock holder these days, the biggest question any investor should ask himself "what will the government (aka GS/JPM/MS) do that might interfere with my asset holdings?

Rationing and Shortages are Here... Fool knew

Again, don't believe me, just go to the store or call and find out. Report back.

The gun store will be out of the popular ammo (.357) and are beginning to limit purchases. A report just passed to me Wal-Mart receives $20k in ammo each week, but they are rationing purchases to prevent shortages.  Again, check and report back.

The but the panic into ammo, hard assets is just mainly just the well read/educated people now. The masses will catch on at some point, and then things are going to get interesting. (Ref: Hedge Fund Managers Bullish on Guns, Ammos, and MREs)

Marc Faber about Zimbabwe School of Economics 2009.02.06

Marc Faber about Zimbabwe School of Economics 2009.02.06

 

FYI - Repost, one month old 56k views. 

Here is America newest sport craze

20 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 02, 2009 at 9:59 AM, dudemonkey (38.18) wrote:

If things get worse, I'm going to take a leave of absence from the US while the gun-crazy survival nuts shoot the crap out of each other.  I have no problems with gun ownership, but given the extreme lack of information that is evident in the bulk of this country's population, it makes me a little nervous when these people start arming themselves to the teeth.

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#2) On April 02, 2009 at 10:04 AM, Gemini846 (45.93) wrote:

What all do they need to know. Their government scammed them, they can't pay for food. Can't buy it? Take it.

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#3) On April 02, 2009 at 10:35 AM, abitare (36.89) wrote:

dudemonkey,

Are you calling the Swiss, who have not fought a war in 500 years gun-crazy survival nuts? I guess they are. Also it will be worse over seas.

Gemini846

Yep, what will millions of unemployed, disinfranchised men do? They will go hunting or warring for rape, pillage and plunder, as they have done sinse the dawn of recorded history. Nothing new here. 

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#4) On April 02, 2009 at 10:35 AM, abitare (36.89) wrote:

dudemonkey,

Are you calling the Swiss, who have not fought a war in 500 years gun-crazy survival nuts? I guess they are. Also it will be worse over seas.

Gemini846

Yep, what will millions of unemployed, disinfranchised men do? They will go hunting or warring for rape, pillage and plunder, as they have done sinse the dawn of recorded history. Nothing new here. 

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#5) On April 02, 2009 at 10:39 AM, rd80 (97.30) wrote:

Alliant Tech Systems (ATK) makes Federal brand ammunition and owns a few other shooting related brands.

I suspect commercial ammunition and shooting accessories are only a small part of ATK's overall business.

There are a number of other US based firearms manufacturers serving the commercial market, but I believe SWHC and RGR are the only ones publicly traded.

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#6) On April 02, 2009 at 10:57 AM, dudemonkey (38.18) wrote:

Are you calling the Swiss, who have not fought a war in 500 years gun-crazy survival nuts? I guess they are. Also it will be worse over seas.

I don't really care what the Swiss do.  I'm talking about the US public.  I see a lot of misinformation and outright ignorance here in the US, and we're giving these people rifles.  You may be comfortable with that, and that's fine.  Again, I'm not anti-gun.  I'm anti-stupid.  I have no problem with a well-armed populace.  I have a problem with a well-armed and highly-misinformed populace facing a crisis.

I consider the CAPS community to be more informed and educated than average, but if every blogger on this site had an assault rifle collection and a large stockpile of ammo I'd be Canadian by 9am tomorrow.

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#7) On April 02, 2009 at 11:02 AM, dudemonkey (38.18) wrote:

Maybe the run on guns and ammo isn't a problem.  Maybe it's a symptom.  I'm not interested in banning guns or limiting gun ownership.  But if the economy gets as bad as some people are projecting I'm just saying I don't want to be anywhere near this place when the walls come down.

I appreciate the opportunity for discussion, and that's a great thing about CAPS.

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#8) On April 02, 2009 at 11:16 AM, motleyanimal (53.46) wrote:

SWHC has a great line of products and are very reasonably priced. Last year they had a $50-off coupon promotion. I know since I bought a 9mm for $319 and got the discount along with 2 free extra 10 round clips. The 22 pistols are only $199, so most anybody can afford one.

Was I worried about the economy and rioters? Hell no! It was a good deal and I am more worried about gun control laws with the Democrats in charge.

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#9) On April 02, 2009 at 11:37 AM, SkinneeJ (28.32) wrote:

Guns aren't exactly a new concept.  They aren't going to replace the iPod anytime soon.  Also don't forget that there are other gun manufacturers outside of the US that are imported daily.

In my part of the country, when we start seeing hurricanes on the radar, there is a run on the grocery stores to the point where they start keeping palletes of basic supplies on display in the middle of the floor.  99% of the time, that storm never hits us and life continues.

 There really isn't much of a difference here.  People don't really think long term.  Most of this gun buying spree is probably more related to Obama's threat to the 2nd ammendment than it is the economic crisis.  I've heard dozens of people buy ammo or guns because they fear that Obama is going to tax it more or make it illegal to buy a firearm.  I haven't heard of a single person buy a gun because of the economy.  Anyway, as soon as this thread subsides, so will the gun craze.  It's not like it's some new permanent trend that is here to stay.

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#10) On April 02, 2009 at 11:38 AM, SkinneeJ (28.32) wrote:

I meant to say " as soon as this THREAT subsides", not "thread"...

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#11) On April 02, 2009 at 12:10 PM, abitare (36.89) wrote:

ALCON,

Good replies discussion here. 

dudemonkey,

Canada may not be much better off. 

motleyanimal 

Was I worried about the economy and rioters? Hell no! It was a good deal and I am more worried about gun control laws with the Democrats in charge.

Good reply.

SkinneeJ,

Good reply. Guns are plentiful, ammo is not.  

99% of the time, that storm never hits us and life continues.

Yep, I see millions of disinfranchised and unemployed men causing havoc as greater then 99%. Actually, I see the odds as 100%:

Anyway, as soon as this threat subsides, so will the gun craze.  It's not like it's some new permanent trend that is here to stay.

Maybe, but I have money invested saying you are wrong.

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#12) On April 02, 2009 at 12:28 PM, bostoncelitcs (53.19) wrote:

The Bush Administration could have "staved off" much of the current economic collapse had they cut spending.

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#13) On April 02, 2009 at 3:43 PM, Alex1963 (28.61) wrote:

Hmm interesting post.

Here's my take on the future of guns, legislation, and lawsuits as it pertains to the gun industry.

1st I wouldn't call the majority of current ammo buyers "the well read/educated" I think they are more likely comprised of the more fearful or paranoid with loads of poorly educated and fringe elements in the mix. Plenty of us well read/educated citizens wouldn't dream of buying a gun, or the ammo for one, under any circumstances. I also wouldn't buy the stocks of gun makers for the same reasons I won't buy RJ Reynolds (tho I smoke). I think they are irresponsible companies who do everything they can to resist their common sense and moral obligations to the general public. Including lying & bribing. I don't care how profitable or 'recession proof" they are they'll never see a dime from me or the millions of investors who share my mistrust and loathing.

2ndly, gun lobbies use the reprehensible tactic of hiding behind the 2nd ammendment every time any sort of restriction is attermpted for even the most common sense proposals. I could be far more supportive of gun owners, gun makers and the NRA if they could show the least acknowledge with meaningful compromise the damage their products and people who use them can do. But at the end the argumenty seems to be - "if we go along with that then you'll want something else next". They will tolerate no significant compromise, cede no ground. In doing so they will continue to limit their appeal to the already converted.

3rd. The argument that guns don't kill people, people do, or autombiles are dangerous etc is lame and I think the mileage you can expect on them in the future is over. Including the dumbest argument of all that "the people" need to be able to bear arms to defend their rights against the tyranny of gov't. Which to me means that gun advocates will continue to press for ever more lethal weapons in order to resist a far better armed gov't. What a potential nightmare! A rocket or grenade launcher in every home that wants one? No way, jose. "Civil liberties" do not extend that far in any scenario. So eventually 2nd amendment enthusiasts, Branch Davidian miltita groups, and their like minded brethren will eventually be simply out gunned with their modern day equivalents of flintlock rifles. And the bullets for these guns will be obsolete collectors items. 

4th. You will also see at some point the successful lawsuit which finally puts the gun manufacturers "in the sights" of some huge class action suits and they will not 'dodge this bullet" forever Just as has it finally happened with cigarettes. They will take another hit. The power of all the big lobbies is on the wane, even the almighty NRA and this will happen sooner than later.  

5ht. If things turn out as you say and huge swaths of the population are armed and ready then the very next that'll happen is that some chuckleheads or radical groups will do something awful. At least a couple of times. The majority of people will demand real & effective legislative action and many long overdue changes will be made. Gun stocks will plummet in advance of the expected monster settlements and we'll be right back here with nice low PE's for the next gun co investor. 

6th. I would argue that "2nd hand bullets" are just as damaging and dangerous to health and civil liberties to us non-advocates and non-users as 2nd hand smoke is to non-smokers. Thank god the founding fathers didn't have lamguage about the right "to bear noxious poisens to defend our liberties" because the cigarette people would have made sure you could still smoke in hospitals & elevators. 

The pendulum is swinging that way and IMO not a moment too soon.

Respectfully

Alex 

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#14) On April 02, 2009 at 5:41 PM, rd80 (97.30) wrote:

"... gun lobbies use the reprehensible tactic of hiding behind the 2nd ammendment .."

Darn that old constitution.  Next thing you know, bloggers will start using the reprehensible tactic of hiding behind the 1st amendment the protect their right to say what they want. 

 

 

 

 

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#15) On April 02, 2009 at 6:15 PM, Harold71 (< 20) wrote:

"I haven't heard of a single person buy a gun because of the economy."

I have.  So there's one. 

It wasn't because of Obama.  It was more along the lines of the collapsing dollar, leading to higher firearm prices.  There actually is a gun shortage in select areas, the last time I checked Bushmaster had a five month waiting list on AR's.  That was in December.

I've only had one S&W, and it will probably be my last.  Everything I've had from Ruger has been good or great.  I certainly like this recent one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_97Drd-Tk-c&feature=related

Lately, I think there is an ammo shortage continuing because people are afraid that their will be an ongoing ammo shortage.  People pre-buy and it becomes self-fulfilling.  The gun owning community is definitely growing as well.  The desire/need to be self-reliant is a long-term trend that I see gaining strength.

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#16) On April 02, 2009 at 9:06 PM, AnomaLee (28.71) wrote:

This is ridiculous.

What happened to avoid chasing parabolic charts?

There's a shortage of ammo. Not guns. In many ways you are barking up the wrong tree and chasing the wrong cat.

Ammunition supply has been tight since the U.S. military has been engaged in O.I.F.

I can personally recall having to dig around for brass out there, because there were supply issues.

The Lake City Army Ammunition Plant is the largest supplier of .223 rounds and .308 in the U.S. The plant has been operating at full capacity and has been faced with a lot of difficulty since combat operations began. The DoD awarded contracts to foreign manufacturers to subsidize shipments.

The current constraints in ammo supplies were exacerbated because of a change in DoD policy that limited defense contracts awarded to foreign manufacturers [think of the Boeing vs EADS]. This also limited contracts awarded to foreign ammunition producers and put further constraints on domestic to production.

You couple that with extra demand on concerns of gun restraints.

FYI: The LCAAP is owned by Alliant Teck [Ticker: ATK] and they're the largest producer of medium caliber ammunition.

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#17) On April 03, 2009 at 6:47 PM, Alex1963 (28.61) wrote:

 rd80 

Yes hiding. Many of us are not trying to outlaw guns or take away the 2nd amendment. W are simply interested in figuring out a workable solution to all the violemce invloving handguns and automatic weapons. I say reprehensible because to constantly hide behing the 2nd amendment in order to avoid any constructive dialogue on saftety and screening, limiting types weapons, or numbers owned by indidviduals etc is IMO nauseating.

it's like cigarettes or obesity. The cost to society as a whole to deal with these medical issues is phenomenal. They are shared by all tax payers and to some degree every citizen. People are getting tired of it and as a smoker I certainly understand how non-smokers might be pretty pissed at having to pay for my oxygen machine when I hit medicare age. I fully expect that health care in the near future especially if it looks anything like Obama envisons will involve some personal responsibility. You don't take common sense steps to be healthier you pay more. I have no problem with that. Well it's the same for gun, gun violence and gun violence. I can certainly go along with common sense restrictions on where I can smoke. Ok so my rights got a little infringed but others have been extended. That is the way the tide is turning.

I think many of us feel that your right to own guns shouldn't infringe too far on my right to be safe from your guns. There will probably always be tension between these two positions but I think their is a little more room to give on the gun advocate side of the fence. Very little compromises have been agreed to on weapons and then seemingly only in the face of the most outrageous tragedies. 

OK?

Sincerely

Alex 

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#18) On April 03, 2009 at 7:25 PM, rd80 (97.30) wrote:

We'll have to agree to disagree.

 

 

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#19) On April 03, 2009 at 8:56 PM, abitare (36.89) wrote:

I am AFK and have limited bandwidth/time. The gun and ammo run is part democrat threat, part economy related, IMO. Mostly the former now, the later later. I think guns and ammo are decent hard assets to hold anyways. Unlike stocks thay have risen significantly over time. In fact, over most time frames guns and ammo have outperformed most asset classes. Right?

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#20) On April 03, 2009 at 9:06 PM, TideGoesOut (76.53) wrote:

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