leohaas (93.60)

So How Is Retail Doing?

May 22, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: WMT , COST , RTH

A little over half a year ago now, I put my red thumbs down on a lot of retailers. I promised to keep you posted, especially since I predicted that that call would propel me into the top 100.

Following that blog, I picked 27 retail or retail related stocks to underperform. Today, 20 out of 27 (or 74%) have resulted in a positive score for me, with an average of 8 points. Considering that I am currently ranked #64, with 76% accuracy and an average score of 13.6 points, it looks like my call was OK but not exceptional. If I would not have made that call, I would still have been a Top 100 player.

Of the 7 with a negative score, I will be closing my WMT and COST picks in the near future. It has become clear by now that the sellers of cheap stuff are doing well in this downturn. And since I believe that the downturn isn't over yet (although I am not one of those depression-is-here, gloom-and-doom, gold-to-the-moon, the-end-is-near, vote-Ron-Paul, buy-a-bunker-and-stock-it-with-food-and-ammo blog hoggers who seem to dominate CAPS), I am sticking with my other retail underperform picks.

I expect to reconsider around the time the Holiday season is nearing. In the mean time, I suggest you stay away from anything retail, possibly with the exception of the aformentioned sellers of cheap stuff.