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So much for beer being recession-proof



October 27, 2008 – Comments (8)


First the decoupling theory blew up, and now we find out that beer sales aren't that recession-proof at all.  What's next?  The Easter Bunny, Santa?  Why don't they just burst all of my bubbles.

British beer sales are dropping, right along with the British Pound and the rest of the countey's economy.  Today the British Beer and Pub Association reported that during the third quarter total beer sales fell around 7% year-over-year, the equivalent of 161 million fewer pints (76 million liters).  That's a lot of beer!

Sales at British pubs have been steadily falling for a number of years, but industry analysts had expected consumers to begin drinking more beer at home.  Apparently this isn't happening, the association's "Quarterly Beer Barometer" shows that the recent slowdown in beer sales has spread to include sales at supermarkets as well, which until now had held fairly well.  British supermarket and liquor store sales dropped 6% during Q3.  While better than the 8.1% drop at bars, the decline in liquor sales for home consumption was much larger than expected.

Part of the problem is the recent increase in the country's alcohol tax, which the government raised by 9.1% in March.

In France, beer sales at bars are down an estimated 12% year-to-date.  Much of this steep decline is suspected to be a result of the country's recent ban on smoking in bars, which took effect at the beginning of the year.

German drinking has held up much better, down only 1.7% YTD, but the economy there has held up much better than in the rest of Europe.

Keeping the party going, beer sales are still increasing in the United States (U - S - A, U - S - A, I'm so proud of us).  However the rate of growth has slowed to 0.5%, from 1.4% in 2007, and 2.1% in 2006.

British pint becomes latest credit crunch victim

Long Beer

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 27, 2008 at 4:36 PM, beirut (82.57) wrote:

I contribute to the beer market.

I'm the Warren Buffet of beer stock.

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#2) On October 27, 2008 at 4:41 PM, Tastylunch (28.52) wrote:

You know Deej, I wonder the credit crisis affects bars? I wonder if they will have to keep ppl's tabs on shorter leashes in order to pay the bills. That could help cut beer sales I would think....

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#3) On October 27, 2008 at 6:12 PM, TheClub55 (< 20) wrote:

Maybe the drinking is not actually down... but rather tax avoidance is growing.  If the British gov raised country's alcohol tax by 9.1% maybe people are figuring out how to avoid the tax or brewing beer/sprits at home.

 Just look at the cigarette tax on NYC, by the number it looks like a huge drop in number of pack sold (less smoking) but the reality is people have learned to avoid the tax... plus, it keep the police busy since they have created a new class of criminals.

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#4) On October 27, 2008 at 6:58 PM, oldfashionedway (34.65) wrote:

Love your work, Deej!  The graphics are priceless.  Keep on bloggin'.


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#5) On October 27, 2008 at 8:02 PM, TMFDeej (97.48) wrote:

Thanks for the comments everyone :)


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#6) On October 27, 2008 at 11:19 PM, AnomaLee (28.87) wrote:

Well, I've been doing my part to support the market...


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#7) On October 28, 2008 at 4:26 AM, jester112358 (28.07) wrote:

And when we're discussing fallacies, how about the historical negative correlation between commodity prices and equities.  So much for that hedging strategy!  I guess it works until it doesn't.

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#8) On May 09, 2009 at 2:17 AM, Taniya100 (< 20) wrote:

Since our country is suffering from recession most of us today are in need of financial assistance like cash advance. How do you know when to use a cash advance?  Well, a cash advance comes in handy during emergencies.  Most cash advances aren't long term loans, they're more like payday loans, to help with short term financial challenges.  If your house has been demolished by a tornado, then you would need more help than the average cash advance can give.  However, if you have a sudden emergency, they're handy.  For those who've joined the 21st century, there are online loan applications you can fill out, and have your funds dispensed via direct deposit.  A cash advance can also keep you from needing to use cash advance.

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