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alstry (< 20)

So Much for those 70 year charts......



September 14, 2008 – Comments (13)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The U.S. credit squeeze has brought on a "once-in-a-century" financial crisis that is likely to claim more big firms before it eases, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan said Sunday.

Greenspan told ABC's "This Week" that the situation "is in the process of outstripping anything I've seen, and it still is not resolved and it still has a way to go."

So much for those 30 years charts your finanicial advisor shows you. 

That is right took about 130 years to lever up our banking system so that now the whole thing is bankrupt.....everybody is praying for a bailout.....the only problem is that there is no money left to bailout.  You can't print when the recipient can't pay you back.

I have been trying to tell you guys that this is unlike anything any living American has ever experienced.  I may have to revise up my umployment projection to 50%....and I am not kidding.  Just watch how many companies start to fold in the upcoming months as they run down the lines of credit.


13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 14, 2008 at 1:49 PM, BradAllenton (31.53) wrote:

I believe as you do, this will be the biggest economic disaster the US has ever known. I don't think that people understand the scope of what is happening and the likely implosion to come.

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#2) On September 14, 2008 at 2:18 PM, awallejr (56.95) wrote:

Yeah and he continued to predict that housing should STABILIZE in 2009, though I think 2010.  I also wish he would just go away and stay retired. Personally I put much of the blame on him for encouraging reckless lending under his watch.

Alstry you are just a sensationalist and nothing more.  To even predict 50% unemployment is both ignorant and I suspect wishful.  I suspect you want total chaos and a total collapse of this country.  I really do. 

I don't know where you live or what you do, but tomorrow look out the window and you will see people still getting up, going to work, making sure their kids get to school on time, come home, prepare dinner, and rinse repeat the next day.  There will be pinkslips for some. But don't even think for a minute it will be HALF the workforce.

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#3) On September 14, 2008 at 2:27 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

I certainly hope you are right.  Sometimes I get a little angry to say the least.....but if you can figure out a solution to the current problem based on the current path.....I am all ears.

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#4) On September 14, 2008 at 2:38 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

I don't know where you live or what you do, but tomorrow look out the window and you will see people still getting up, going to work, making sure their kids get to school on time, come home, prepare dinner, and rinse repeat the next day.

Many people use this analogy on me.....and I agree with it for the most let me steal one from the book the Black Swan as a reply:

A crazy Turkey grabs his morning food from the farmer and runs up the hill everyday.....for some reason he doesn't trust the farmer. 

All the other turkeys think he is nuts as they think the farmer is the greatest man in the world as he feeds them, provides them shelter, and asks little in return.  For 364 days, the majority of the turkeys are right and laugh at the crazy turkey.

But on the 365th day, the day before Thanksgiving, the crazy turkey stands upon the top of the hill watching his friends get their heads cut off by the farmer.

I gotta tell ain't easy being a crazy turkey.

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#5) On September 14, 2008 at 4:05 PM, Tastylunch (28.76) wrote:

"I may have to revise up my umployment projection to 50%"

Alstry, that's plain nuts. I agree with a lot of what you write but the value of what you write and notice gets overshadowed by reckless hyberbole such as this. At least when you were talking ten percent unemployment by the end of the year you were talking about something that's more plausible in a short period of time. Do you have factual evidence that suggests 50% unemployment or even 20%? Not saying it can't happen but I don't see any evidence for that at all. Keep in mind I believe the highest unemployment got in the great depression was about 25%.

If you really want people to listen to your message (which I am assuming you do since you post frequently) which often has a lot of value, then you probaby ought to tone down the rhetoric and focus on the evidence and your case more dispassionately. Otherwise a lot of people will dismiss what you are saying as the "crazy guy on the corner" talk.

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#6) On September 14, 2008 at 4:48 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Do you have factual evidence that suggests 50% unemployment or even 20%?

First of all, I am PROJECTING that unemployment can reach 50% and I have put no date on 20-30% unemployment projection still holds for the end of the year once the BLS backs out birth/death rate adjustments.  It is simply a factor of how the BLS calculates umemployment and my estimation based on my analysis.....who knows what the BLS actually does since there really is no reason to have the "L" in the abriviation anyway.

Already homebuilding is down 50% but the BLS reports construction employment down only want to buy a bridge in the Sahara?.....I have one at a great price.

The CEO of British Airways said that 30 airlines have already failed this year and expects 30 more to fail by the END OF THE YEAR.

The auto companies and financials are going to be laying off HUGE numbers of workers over the next few months.

Greenspan says this is the worst crisis in over 100 years.  The Great Depression was only 80 years ago.  I happen to agree with him on this one and hence unemployment should rise to much higher levels then the thirties........assuming the BLS doesn't provide us BS numbers.

How's that for evidence??????????????

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#7) On September 14, 2008 at 4:59 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

 Some more evidence................

ROME (AFP) - Failing Italian airline Alitalia cannot guarantee any flights after Sunday because of lack of fuel, special administrator Augusto Fantozzi reportedly warned Saturday as bankruptcy loomed.

"Up to tomorrow (Sunday) we have guaranteed flights, but not on Monday because no-one will supply us with kerosene," Fantozzi said, according to union sources quoted by Italian news agencies.


whether you like it or not....the world is shutting down.  No where is it more evident than the airlines.  In the past, when airlines when bankrupt is was a Chapter 11 restructuring...this time it is Chap 7 liquidations leaving passengers stranded each time and fewer and fewer planes in the air.

Expect AIG to announce it is getting out of the airline leasing business tomorrow as it liquidates itself into oblivion.

You think I am joking by posting like this...simply documenting the evidence .

Each time an airlines shuts down...if affects many more workers where are employed by suppliers.  If affects the creditors and many others.  It effects the resorts, hotels, restaurants and destination cities and airports.  And the list goes on and on.

Most people who play chess can think a one or two moves ahead....if you ever play with a player....he can think out every move to checkmate before moving his pawn.



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#8) On September 14, 2008 at 5:59 PM, awallejr (56.95) wrote:

Actually I do play chess, and even won some tournaments, and no, not even a grandmaster can think out every move to checkmate before moving his pawn. Too many variables.

While I agree that employment will shrink in certain sectors (obviously financial), there is plenty of room for growth in others (medical/nursing, energy/commodity, even construction if Govt pushes more infrastructure rebuilding).

And while there are concerns about the housing/financial crisis, or whether we will eventually turn into a recession (although I have been hearing this for 6 months now from the pundits and it has yet to happen statistically), it really isn't the end of the world.  The Sun will rise tomorrow and people will be going to work, although some won't.

I believe we can work this out, the tools are there to do so.  But of course politics could screw things up too.  But rather than predict that to occur in the worse possible scenario (which would have to be for your 50% unemployment justification), I'd rather discuss ways to improve things.  Or discuss realistic investment strategies (no I can't short 200 random stocks in real life nor do I have the intestinal fortitude to do so).


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#9) On September 14, 2008 at 7:52 PM, dwot (29.67) wrote:

Reading anything about Greenspan just makes me sick, what a dork.  He was the single most responsible person for this mess.

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#10) On September 14, 2008 at 8:19 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

You would think the one most responsible would understand the situation the best.

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#11) On September 14, 2008 at 10:30 PM, jahbu (80.32) wrote:

Problem, reaction, solution.

Its that simple.

When it gets bad enough, the sheep will react in fear and beg for solutions.

Everyone better do some serious thinking on who will be providing the solutions and what that will mean to their friends and family.

I guarantee it wont be the preacher, the farmer, the doctor or the local entrepreneur calling the shots.  It will be the globalist who have skillfully concocted this whole problem.  Why you ask?  To bankrupt the United States of America and dismantle the constitution and our soveriegnty.  There is big money to be had in a North American Union.

A new world order is near, the globalist can taste it. Will they just let the good Ol USA financially collapse, or will they use this opportunity for a World War III first?

Dont be a fool to think that all this Subprime stuff just caught all the GURUS off guard.  They knew exactly what would happen.

 Housing bubble + 2 wars + total corruption+ welfare state+ out of control spending+deindustrialization= collapse.  They stole our money and transferred it to safe assets before the storm hits.

Guess I am another Crazy turkey as well


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#12) On September 14, 2008 at 11:29 PM, Harold71 (< 20) wrote:

Another crazy turkey reporting in...

This dry prairie fire is just getting started, and the wind it's starting to blow.

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#13) On September 15, 2008 at 12:00 AM, EnigmaDude (51.88) wrote:

not crazy, and not a turkey - here are some observations that oppose your view on the situation.

Yesterday I was in the mall with my teen daughter and we bought clothes at Aeropostale. The store was packed with people buying.

We stopped in the Apple store to check out the new iPod Nano and look at the MacBooks and iPhones. You could hardly move without bumping into someone.

Went grocery shopping today and could hardly find a place to park.

Watched the Broncos beat the Chargers and the stadium was rockin' from all the fanatical fans - about 60,000 of 'em (and tix sell for an average of about $60 each!)

I think I read the Michigan stadium has filled to capacity for every game for the past 10 or 20 years - and it holds more than 100,000.

 Yeah - times are tough and there will be layoffs and more banks going down. And I'll wait to see if there are still some stocks worth buying in a couple of months, but I think we'll come out of this. Not sure when or how much more hurt we'll see, but there is hope. Change is brewing and change brings fear.

Maybe I'll write a blog about it. There is way too much fear and cynicism lately. The news media perpetuates the fear, cuz that's what sells. Perhaps all you crazy turkeys should just go and bury your head in the sand for a while.

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