Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

So where do you think we are in the economic cycle ?



May 21, 2011 – Comments (11)

Okay well since it seems like that old man is wrong once again in his second failed prognostication of the second coming of christ and it seems like there will be another tommorrow as well as an open come monday.

I figured I would ask  to the top and not so top fools,  where do they think we are in the Economic  cycle of  boom ~ bust  ~  expansion ~ contraction ~  recovery ~ recession ~  depression ~  v-chart ~  L-chart  ????

I say its never a good thing to bet against the long term prosperity of America.  But I am only one in a sea of  many.

Anyone who has been in the markets can understand when others say its a rigged game,  but its like the only game in town  with  low interest rates  and  other things  going on.

I've survived the  generational  down turn  and I had the ability  to ride the market up and buy on the way up  as well as on the way down.

So  do you say we are just coming out  of  the abyss ?  that we've been out and are looking to fall  back down ?   or will you just keep silent   so as to not embarass yourselves ?  and not risk anything ?


11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 21, 2011 at 10:31 AM, L0RDZ (90.25) wrote:

Report this comment
#2) On May 21, 2011 at 10:57 AM, buffalonate (50.30) wrote:

I see the market trading sideways or slightly down for the rest of the year.  The S&P 500 is 10% from its historical high and I don't think that is reasonable with 9% unemployment.  The economy is still continuing to grow modestly and it will continue that growth unless oil magically drops below $90 at which point growth will speed up significantly.  I think earnings reports for the rest of the year are not going to impress people because commodities inflation will really hurt earnings(CMG and GAP).  Commodities are coming down significantly so next year's earnings will definitely be good in comparison.  A lot of it depends on the strength of the dollar.  If the dollar is low commodities will spike and earnings will suffer, if the dollar commodities will crash and earnings will explode. 

Report this comment
#3) On May 21, 2011 at 11:00 AM, L0RDZ (90.25) wrote:

Report this comment
#4) On May 21, 2011 at 11:09 AM, L0RDZ (90.25) wrote:

Buff I think  the unemployment figure is  not as important,  lets face it,   if you don't have money or are going back into the work force making much less than you did before,  your money is already in the system,  you just can't suddenly decide your gonna stop eating  and  paying for other basic things.

I think were still on the upswing,  its possible that we can surpass and reach new highs, despite what  10-20% in the mainstream  who aren't producing and are  supposedly suffering.  Lets face it before the downturn they were really lucky to have the jobs and things they had.

There is money to be made either way ?  whether the market as a whole goes up or down or  heaven forbid  remains flat.

Plenty of new bubbles are looking to be formed.

Can anyone say social networking :-9

Turns head and almost vomits  :-)

Report this comment
#5) On May 21, 2011 at 11:12 AM, VExplorer (29.03) wrote:

IMO: Main Street is in expansion. How I know? I'm working in manufactoring plant of S&P500 Co. We expand our plant in last two years. Actually, we build new one. Goverment money of course. Why? We are not profitable. We cannot increase productivity. It is really difficult in manufacturing. China in the same situation: I calculated marging of our business in US, Germany, Russia and China. Exactly the same result - no marging at all. Looks like business of our customers not much better, but our shop is loaded with orders for year ahead.

Here is a question: why shares of our company doubled in two years? Low rates. So, why you thing any correlation between stock and fundamentals is present now?

Report this comment
#6) On May 21, 2011 at 12:21 PM, L0RDZ (90.25) wrote:

We are in expansion,  sucks for those who are not, and who think or cannot take advantage of expanding other than only expanding waist-lines.

When mainstreet finally is comfortable investing back in the market at all time new highs  ~  you'll likely  see perhaps the beginnings of the next down turn.

Report this comment
#7) On May 21, 2011 at 12:41 PM, buffalonate (50.30) wrote:

The unemployment rate does matter.  Unemployed people still buy the very basics in order to survive but that is it.  When people have a job even if it is not making as much as they were are much more capable of doing discretionary spending.  Somehow I doubt people who are unemployed spend a lot of money going out to eat or shopping or fixing up their house.  The unemployment rate also has a psychological effect on the people who already have jobs.  If the people who are already employed feel the economy is getting better then their job security rises which makes them feel less worried about spending money.   

Report this comment
#8) On May 21, 2011 at 12:51 PM, L0RDZ (90.25) wrote:

In the confrontation between the stream and the rock, the stream always wins; not through strength, but through persistence. Buddha

Report this comment
#9) On May 21, 2011 at 10:15 PM, russiangambit (28.75) wrote:

It would appear the cycles are now measured by QE and I am on sidelines to see what the end of QE2 will bring. I don't think many believe it is a geniune expansion  so I expect quite a few people are preparing for the end of QE2 . In the fall we should be able to have more clarity as to where we are in the cycle. Either we get QE3 or we don't.

Report this comment
#10) On May 22, 2011 at 12:26 AM, L0RDZ (90.25) wrote:

Report this comment
#11) On May 22, 2011 at 12:30 AM, L0RDZ (90.25) wrote:

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners