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goldminingXpert (29.43)

Sold JAG, bought DZZ just now

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September 08, 2009 – Comments (24)

I just sold my Jaguar Mining at a very healthy $11.20 a share, a nice rip over the past few months, and moved the proceeds into DZZ, a 2x gold short fund. Why you ask? It seems everybody is going all goo-goo ga-ga over the break north over $1k in gold. Why am I getting short?

Well, look back at a chart of gold. How many times has it been over 990? 5. How many times has it gone over 1040? 0. Once we reached the February high in the middle of the night last night, gold stalled despite continued selling in the US$. This was a divergence. Sure enough, as soon as bucky began to rally this morning, gold dumped, as big sellers appeared on the futures market, spiking gold as low as 992. What will we see on the gold chart when we look back with hindsight from November or December? If you said another high-volume reversal at $1,000/oz leading to a sharp sell-off, I'd bet you'd be right. I know that's the bet I'm taking. Of course, should the all-time high in gold (only 4% away) go down, bet comes off and I take my chips home--nice risk/reward on this set-up.

24 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 08, 2009 at 12:15 PM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

*Correction* that should read I sold JAG that I owned for one of my clients. I sold no shares of JAG out of my personal account.

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#2) On September 08, 2009 at 12:22 PM, malcolmcochran (59.75) wrote:

Well, I don't know if it's too late but the Australian miner Dominion (DOM.AX) is a lean focussed opn, sitting on a huge deposit of very high concentration gold. Actually, close to BHP's big mine in Australia.

 

I bought in at 43c Australian because I'd followed the drilling investigation and results, and it now runs at ~ A$4, with a high PE (12) for a miner but no debt and generous dividends.

 

It is on some local exchange and details are available at www.dml.com.au. It's probably Pink Sheet.

 {*.*} Malc

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#3) On September 08, 2009 at 12:50 PM, millionby24 (< 20) wrote:

Did you move 'all in' at dow 9000 for ur clients also?

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#4) On September 08, 2009 at 12:55 PM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

Clients? Last time I checked you were some college kid with no credentials and some success on a popular invesment website. I hope these clients of yours understand the risk you put on them by putting their funds into a levered ETF. Particularly a bear ETF in the middle of a solid market rise with no technical indicators to suggest a reversal. Ever hear of a falling knife? Well this is the mirror image on the bears. You COULD be right in calling this top, but you sure haven't been right in calling tops since the spring.

Do you know your fiduciary duty? Perhaps you should review the current value of your "all-in" portfolio of put options with them before getting them into a levered ETF so they know what type of risk you take on. I suggest you get some credentials, for instance, the CFA designation like myself, before taking on "clients".

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#5) On September 08, 2009 at 12:56 PM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

Keep talking, penny stock pumper.

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#6) On September 08, 2009 at 12:59 PM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

It's coming back to me why I took my CAPS vacation. Note to self, quit getting involved in spats with idiots.

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#7) On September 08, 2009 at 1:04 PM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

Since I don't want to be "the mean guy" again, I'll exit stage left from this post with this:

 


Kittens!

 

 

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#8) On September 08, 2009 at 1:13 PM, semper77 (32.89) wrote:

I think this is a good call, GMX. Gold is overbought and is currently a very crowded trade on the long side. I'm also short GLD from 97.75 and think a move down to 94 could happen sooner rather than later.

 

 

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#9) On September 08, 2009 at 1:19 PM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

Idiot eh? Yeah because putting a significant part of your portfolio representing "all-in" into 6 month term options that could potentially all expire worthless is a smart thing to do. Go run and hide behind your cats. May I suggest you at least try to pass Level 1 of the CFA exam? Perhaps after you fail like 60-70% of people who take the exam do, you'll have a little more respect for others ideas and accomplishments.

I stand fully behind all my recommendations - CENX and C in the $1's (both since sold), PCX at $9 and SGY at $5, (the following are all Canadian symbols) OPC in the $1.50's, ELR in the 0.50's, ML in the 2's and DML in the $1.50's. Whether they are penny stocks or not are indifferent. A lot of good stocks became penny stocks thanks to the actions of your "reputable" and "safe" banks down there so don't try to spin something I recommend as seedy garbage just because its price is less than $1.

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#10) On September 08, 2009 at 1:19 PM, GNUBEE (28.48) wrote:

GMX and Semper- put me in your camp. At least for now.

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#11) On September 08, 2009 at 1:24 PM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

I lost all respect for your analysis with this comment Particularly a bear ETF in the middle of a solid market rise with no technical indicators to suggest a reversal

You've never heard of a double top apparently? What happened when gold hit the February high this morning looks a lot like this.




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#12) On September 08, 2009 at 1:30 PM, ikkyu2 (99.32) wrote:

I rarely get into spats on the internet, but CFAs are idiots.  The test is designed to evaluate how well the subject is equipped to steer clients into investment vehicles that are profitable to the large banks that run them and who, coincidentally, sponsored the development of the test.

The dogmatic, herd-mentality investment approach espoused as holy writ by the CFA exam and its hordes of zombie followers is absolutely the right way to invest, if it's 1981 and you're too dumb to run your own money.

And if you're too dumb to run your own money, here's what happens: you lose that money.  Hasn't anyone been paying attention? 

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#13) On September 08, 2009 at 1:33 PM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

I've moved onto a new thread. When gold is trading much lower in a few months, I will link back to this thread. Go to sleep my little thread--I'll be back for you later.

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#14) On September 08, 2009 at 1:33 PM, GNUBEE (28.48) wrote:

EV- we've done this before too. (even includes guest appearance by our very own favorite DWI)

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=134286&t=01008631960540474609&source=isrsithln0000001

I don't claim to know whats going to happen, but I think gold will cool off again.

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#15) On September 08, 2009 at 1:42 PM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

You see the word market in there? I wasn't talking specifically about gold. But regarding it anyways we will see if its a double top or not. Not too easy to call a double top until after the fact. If gold is, say, $975 sometime next week an argument for a double top can be made and THEN someone could short it from $975 to probably under $950 or even $900. But to call a double top when the formation is not even complete is not at all smart. Rising now you're trying to catch a rising knife.

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#16) On September 08, 2009 at 1:49 PM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

The ultimate irony in this is I don't even own any gold or silver stocks, ETFs or futures contracts. Just one lonely silver bar hanging out in a closet somewhere. Everything is base metals, oil, uranium or ELR which is platinum. So I benefit from a gold pullback if oil and copper stay strong. This guy just gets under my skin.

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#17) On September 08, 2009 at 2:44 PM, Schmacko (66.96) wrote:

Any reasoning as to choosing DZZ vs. GLL?  Just wondering if there's a logical reason as why to choose one over the other or if you think they're fundamentally the same.

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#18) On September 08, 2009 at 10:18 PM, MrSucrose (< 20) wrote:

I am more curious on what you think about the dollar.  I am thinking about FXE puts...

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#19) On September 10, 2009 at 12:40 PM, FleaBagger (29.53) wrote:

What about when JAG just dropped back below 10? Are you back in? I remember you said JAG could still be profitable with gold below 500 (or whatever). So what about it?

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#20) On September 10, 2009 at 1:52 PM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

I am hoping to reload JAG under 8.

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#21) On September 15, 2009 at 8:12 PM, BravoBevo (99.97) wrote:

millionby24 and EV38, why do you need to go around calling names and attempting to belittle other folks? I don't understand how this grew into a spitting match 

For every transaction, EVERY single transaction, there are both a buyer and a seller. When someone doesn't fall in line behind you, can't we agree that people are entitled to disagree?

I don't have a dog in this hunt, but surely goldminingXpert is entitled to share his point of view.  No matter how much you might disagree with his position, use the opportunity do learn something about his proffered viewpoint or to learn something about him.

Even if goldminingXpet is wrong (although I don't disagree with him), he's entitled to be wrong. But he is merely calling a short-term trade and he isn't calling a long-term position. So, please give it a rest. May your picks behave according to your expectations in a similar manner as to how his picks match his predictions.

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#22) On September 16, 2009 at 8:28 PM, DeerHunter73 (72.94) wrote:

Xpert heres a question for you. 95% of your red thumbs are in the red. At least 95% of your green thumbs are in the red. So lets just avg that out to 95% wrong yet you have and accuracy rating of 88% or so.  Please explain that one to us.

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#23) On September 21, 2009 at 7:31 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

bevo, GMX calls more names than the rest of the CAPs game combined at least in my limited experience.  I believe that is the nature of the commentary and interactions above.

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#24) On September 22, 2009 at 12:42 AM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

#21 - not calling names at all, stating fact.

"college kid with no credentials and some success on a popular invesment website" was the closest to an insult I used, and is it not correct? Is he not some college kid with no credentials (that's why you are IN college, to GET credentials) and some success on an investment website? The rest were harshly phrased but accurate statements of what the client-investment rep relationship should be.

On the flip side, he called me penny stock pumper, implying that my recommendations are in some way a pump and dump scam, pretty much the worst allegation you can give to someone in the investment realm.

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