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Some days I wonder if I shouldn't SHORT myself !!

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December 28, 2008 – Comments (2)

I'm a long by nature, but enjoy dabbling in this roller coaster market with some buy/hold/sell in 15-60 days or so; keeps things interesting with about 20% of my portfolio.  I never day trade, I don't have the time, capital, or guts for it.  I'm starting to wonder however, if I couldn't make money placing my calls on CAPS, and then betting against them by shorting them in the real world market???!!  I have seen investors who are just bad stock pickers and you'd just like to do the opposite of what they do. I have seriously considered buying/selling opposite to Cramer’s calls, but his rating really isn’t all that bad, and I’d lose a bundle in commissions buying and selling each time he changes his call.   In my case, most of my stock picks eventually surface, just not the first few days and I have to hold my breath until I turn blue coxing them to the surface.It seems that since I do most of my reading and research at night/weekends that I queue up my picks on Caps by posting them as I find them.  Of course they don't go active until the market opens. Almost without fail the stocks I pick a day or so before when the market is closed, get bumped up in the opposite direction when the market opens, leaving me badly in the hole on CAPS potential.   I would like to think that I just missed the market in general, but since I have mixed down and up calls going active on the open and they all do exactly the opposite of how I called them, then I can't blame it on market swings as a whole. One could say that I'm just a bad stock picker, (coldest one day award recently might support that), but overall, given time, I tend to come out ahead on my picks.  Both of my real life portfolios are up on the year, but only with a lot of coxing and one of them could bobble back under from time to time. Similarly a few points in the major indexes and my fragile caps rating can make 20-60 point swings, but seems to be slightly more up than down.For caps, recently I started using the watch option.   I assume I can make them "live" when I think the best point of the volatile day is and maybe gain a few points out the gate.  The problem is that I'm not usually there to watch them.  I wish they had "limit" option on the picks!Like my one day coldest player award, I try not to take things personally, but after a period of time of consistently making my picks too "early", one would have to wonder.   Do I cover by shorting myself??!!!   At any rate, maybe some of my fellow CAPS fools would like to short me!  (Or certainly shut me up).  If it wasn't for the seven day minimum rule, I'd bet you could rack up some points!Generally 50-50 chances and true/false aren't my strong point. I second guess myself too much, but consistent 50-50-90 ........ give me a 50-50 chance and I'm wrong 90% of the time, is not a winning hand in picking a car, a pet, in playing poker, and certainly NOT in the stock market!    

 

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 31, 2008 at 4:25 PM, TheGarcipian (36.39) wrote:

Ha! You made me laugh because you remind me of myself, too much! Sometimes I wonder if I shouldn't start an advisory service where I disclose to paying subscribers the stocks that I'm currently holding. Then they can go out and short those positions and make a killing!

It's funny (but still ever so perplexing) that we humans have such a hard time understanding very large numbers or scenarios with a large number of controlling factors, like the stock market with its myriad players and plethora of news events. Our brains just aren't very good with large numbers.

We must have been hatched from the same egg as I've got the same 50-50-90 rule applied to me as well. I am pretty sure it's stamped on my forehead for all to read, except the tatoo ink is special in that it doesn't display in mirrors or in pictures. But I know it's there. Damn that tatoo!

The weird thing is I can be doing so well with "watched" stocks, but when I go "live" with them (either in CAPS or in Real Life), that's when the stock decides--nay, it knows!--that I've invested something in it and goes against me. Bastard stocks!

Just look at my most recent picks of GM and its financial arms of GJM, GKM,  and GMA. Less than a day after I thumbed-them down, Congress finally decides to give them money, and I immediately lost 20+ percentage points on each of the 3 picks. Down 60+ points in one day on only 3 stock picks! Today, they popped up another 8%-10%, so now my loss is 80+ points in 3 days. Wonderful. Well, I guess that's better than having them go under. They can thank my "advisory service" by sending me a new car...

One REC for you for making me laugh!

Good luck and Happy New Year to you,
--Gar

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#2) On January 01, 2009 at 10:05 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Thank you for the reply and rec. I wondered if anyone reads these blogs, but they are an interesting place to vent between long nights of 50-50-90, why bother research! I'm surprised on GM that you got caught on all three.  With my fragile caps rating rocking in that zone where a 1% stock market change causes a 30% swing in cap colors, I'm trying not to get too greedy for points. By average costing in sectors/idea I can back out or double down by adding another stock in the sector.  Solar and shipping have taught me a lot the last year...unfortunately we can learn bad habits and good, so who knows what it taught me!

If you decided to open that advisory service I'd be happy to help test it for you or relieve you when you take your exotic expensive vacations from your profits!!!   Good luck, and best wishes for your portfolio in the New Year....a fresh blank page....more mistakes to make and lessons to learn good and bad....to err is human, so it comes naturally. I'm thinking about getting a monkey and a dart board....

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