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alstry (< 20)

Somebody has to WARN the FOOLS



March 26, 2009 – Comments (18)

YOU BETTER PREPARE!!!!!  You have been hearing this for a Year....

Worst quarter for the economy since the 1930s

In terms of lost wealth, lost jobs, falling output, the fourth quarter stands out

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Now that the books are closed on the fourth quarter's performance, it's fair to say that the final three months of 2008 will go down as the worst quarter for the U.S. economy since the 1930s.

In terms of the things that matter most -- output, income, wealth, profits, foreclosures and job growth -- the fourth quarter was a disaster.

If you look at each of those categories in isolation, we may have seen worse on rare occasions, but when you examine the big picture, it was the worst since the Depression.

If you thought the 4th Quarter was a Disaster....just wait for the numbers coming out on the First Quarter in the next few weeks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The problem now is that more and more are being infected with Toxic Borrower Syndrome and the FU virus.  And millions MORE are likely to contract the disease making the severity of the downturn much worse.

We are just about to enter the second quarter....the outlook is even worse than the First and the First really sucks.

The problem is that when people go broke or lose their job....there is little in the way of replacement employment to generate income. 

Not only that, millions more jobs are in jeapordy.....I spoke with a few friends in the transportation industry...things have really slowed in recent weeks....this is the kind of stuff you can't find easily unless your buddies actually own the company or work in the industry.

Healthcare is now slowing as well....people are putting off visits to the doctor and procedures. 

Commercial Real Estate is about to go through what housing has experienced....but this one will be relatively MUCH WORSE since commercial property is more discretionary.

Autos, Residential and Commercial Real Estate, Health Care and Finance account for the majority of our economy....add in Retail and Restaurants and Travel and we pretty much wrap things up as technology is dependant on the success of these industries.......

Get Ready....It is about to get REAL SLOW.....REALLY REALLY SLOW as people and business run out of money and others hold back on purchases....

PREPARE....Don't FEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It seems clear that America and the world is about to enter the GREATEST DEPRESSION in history.  I have been trying to warn you for the past year.....and it is just about here.

Do I have your ear????

18 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 26, 2009 at 5:53 PM, Varchild2008 (83.83) wrote:

Michigan Unemployment spiked to 12% last month.  Rapid population declines in Michigan as citizens flock to other states in search of a job.

Wayne and MaComb counties are going to be hardest hit when it comes to Tax revenue.  As Gas prices go up, how will unemployment benefits and welfare keep pace? 

Recent price of gas at Michigan:  $2.19 a gallon.
I last reported it at:  $2.10 just mere days ago.

CNBC:  Fast Money reports massive commercial real estate loan defaults problems... 

Could we be witnessing a /\ shaped rally back down to DOW 7000 once buyers stop buying?  Who knows... One things for sure.. Next Week, for me... =  "PUTS WEEK"

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#2) On March 26, 2009 at 6:18 PM, checklist34 (98.71) wrote:

I'm making money today, beat the market on caps and in real life, trimmed some more, took a couple more hedges, doing the bull dance, feeling the flow, worrying about things that I CAN control and not worrying too much about things that I CAN'T control, but trying to plan for them.

Trying to plan for things I can't control, like hyperinflation and how to survive it or even benefit from it if we see it in a few years.  Like another big dip in the market...  what is the best hedging strategy?  How can  you win going down without shorting or without losing out if the market goes up instead?  What are the rules at my broker for shorting, because if gold does skyrocket, its going to become one heck of a good short eventually.  What should I have for dinner anyway?  Take my son out to eat or cook at home?  Cod?  I like cod...

Worry about the things you can control, plan for the things you cannot.  Time spent on worrying about the actions of the government, truly, is time lost.  You cannot control nor influence the government.  Time spent planning for the potential aftermath of government choices and actions IS potentially productive.

What i'm saying is, yes, ok, I read the CAPs blog, so from reading the CAPs blog I've learned that stock strategies aren't interesting (rarely discussed), positivity is naieve, and that the sky is definitely falling.

So the sky is falling, how's about a plan for what to do after the sky falls?  lets crunch some numbers on different scenarios?  Or just pour gas on everything in sight and start smoking cigars because its all over for society anyway? 


I do absolutely believe in hedging.  Its something every investor should study and be cognizant of, every investor. 

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#3) On March 26, 2009 at 6:21 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

There are now 4 counties in CA with unemployment at 19.9% or higher......

Japan's exports are down 50%

Russia's imports are down 30%

And we are just at the beginning of this mess as we deal with an epidemic of Toxic Borrower Syndrome......

The social impact will be unprecedented.....stay cool Fools.....the heat is about to be turned up.

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#4) On March 26, 2009 at 6:21 PM, OtherOracleOfOMA (29.98) wrote:

"In terms of the things that matter most -- output, income, wealth, profits, foreclosures and job growth..."

This statement is the perfect illustration of the sheer, utter incompetence of the entirety of the financial and economic establishment. Their self-serving delusions truly know no bounds.

Since it's likely no one here will know what I'm talking about either, Google "specific power." That is the governing principle of economy - real, physical economy - not fictional asset values, inflated earnings, or meaningless GDP statistics.

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#5) On March 26, 2009 at 6:41 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

alstry -- when are you going to write anything proactive. Do you always play on peoples fears? Is that the extent of your promise as a writer? We're at the bottom and the need for this spin is thankfully over.

You make some great points but it's always wrapped in angst. Why, don't you believe in anything other then fear????? 

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#6) On March 26, 2009 at 6:50 PM, RainierMan (63.48) wrote:

Classic Alstry, at a time when the bulls are running the show. That's a compliment, by the way. The bottom calls are increasing, optimists are being born every day now, the worst is behinds the prevailing wisdom seems to be.

You got a lot of work to do here. I think you might be in the minority again.

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#7) On March 26, 2009 at 6:52 PM, motleyanimal (38.24) wrote:

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#8) On March 26, 2009 at 6:58 PM, MasterMind1234 (73.35) wrote:

The coming deppression is inevitable.  I can't believe I just got a sweet deal for a condo - $54,000! And it would have costed over 120,000! Its a forclosure I'm going to have to take full advantage. But hmmm if we are not in the worst I guess the best investment is going to be... GUNS!?

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#9) On March 26, 2009 at 6:59 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


Alstry doesn't FEAR...he prepares.

If a tsunami is about to hit the shore....he doesn't stand there crying or stay on the beach....

He casually walks up the hill and pours himself a bloody....hopefully there are 10 great looking women around his wife and kids of course.....somebody has to look out for his son.....

If you think we are close to a bottom.....that is wonderful....those people on the beach in Indonesia thought it was high tide coming in.......and then when it went out.....many went back on the beach again.......


Ride now the tide is back out........what is that rising water on the horizon.......bloodys anyone????

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#10) On March 26, 2009 at 7:04 PM, MasterMind1234 (73.35) wrote:

Prepare my friends.. There is nothing to fear but MARSHALL LAW!

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#11) On March 26, 2009 at 7:10 PM, vriguy (69.70) wrote:

Yes, our national wealth and per capita incomes are likely to plummet - maybe even to a quarter of their pre-crash levels.  Guess what, that would still leave us richer, better housed, better educated, and with a higher standard of living than, say, the Chinese. There will be a lot of rebuilding to do, but we will survive and even thrive.

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#12) On March 26, 2009 at 7:11 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

hmmm, speaking in the 3rd person about yourself is logical alstry or an indicator of "crud" to come"?

You are the reason why I'm not taking my babies on a vacation this year. 

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#13) On March 26, 2009 at 7:26 PM, MasterMind1234 (73.35) wrote:


Thats just Alstrys writing style..  See, people write things on here with different styles full of satire.. It grabbed your attention didn't it? Besides, MasterMind enjoys it. haha

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#14) On March 26, 2009 at 9:53 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


I thought you would like to know that Alstry has been nominated to receive an honorary doctorate from the Institute of Alstrynomics.  It might be redundent because he already calls himself the Doctor of Alstrynomics.  He was the creator of its foundational theory of Concentric Contraction....where just about every asset class collapses in value.

Many at the institute believe Concentric Contraction will replace Modern Portfolio Theory as the standard for Institutional Money Management.  The problem, like all great theories, is that it will likely be not appreciated until its too late for many of the institutions.

Oh long as they are still serving bloodys....Alstry is fine....

We will get through this....the key is to be cool........especially if your are a Fool.

We are all cheering Alstry on for this very distinguished honor.

A Spector Vector update is coming soon......this one will be wild....we are seeing unprecedented readings on the photon may want to get your drink before reading it.......if you are going to get least have a drink in your hand.

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#15) On March 27, 2009 at 12:53 AM, uclayoda87 (28.64) wrote:

The current market rally appears to be a great opportunity to redistribute wealth from those that come late to the party believing that the recovery is here to those who recognize that this market is another false hope.

As long as the market inches up, the guilible new investors will gain confidence and lose fear.  I believe that between April Fools day and Tax day, there will likely be a big one day correction and the market will panic (picture:  Trading Places).  Confidence will be replaced by despair and the DJIA will fall to 6000 and the S&P will drop below hell (666).  Then all the pundits will say they knew the rally was false, because it wasn't based on any real improvement in the economy.

So although I have been taking a real beating on my CAPS score, I have been compensated by real dollars in the market.  Like a sniper, I'm waiting for that April fools day surprise to take my shot and cash out my speculative bets and quickly go into GLD, which will likely rise.

This is the thrid time I have done this move since the November holocaust, which reflects my CAPS score graft.  So it appears that I have achieved one of my goals in CAPS:  To learn how to invest in a socialist environment with Obama as President.

Now I just have to avoid the 90% tax bracket that will be in place in 2010.  I wonder if some of those Treasury positions are still available?  I hear that you don't have to pay taxes if you work for the Treasury.


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#16) On March 27, 2009 at 4:25 PM, GenericMike (< 20) wrote:

I've taken all my positions on CAPS this week. I'mr eady for the looonnnggg ride back down to DOW 6000s. See you guys at the new bottom!

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#17) On March 27, 2009 at 10:07 PM, 119862913 wrote:

I'll take a crack at this one..."Confidence will be replaced by despair and the DJIA will fall to 6000 and the S&P will drop below hell (666)." It is my impression that 666 is the number of the beast. The beast being outside God's realm or plan. Based on this, I do not associate the number 666 with hell per se as the devil is one of God's creations. This is just me?

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#18) On March 28, 2009 at 7:09 PM, bostoncelitcs (59.75) wrote:

We need another "depression".  We have become too spoiled.  Don't expect Washington to fix our problems.  If you can't pay your mortgage move back in with the "in-laws" like it was done "back in the day"!!  No federal govt. buying "toxic assets". Let the Chinese buy the McMansions.

We got into this mess ourselves........we are going to have to get out of it ourselves.

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