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alstry (35.70)

Something is SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!!

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May 17, 2008 – Comments (10)

When May's sales at WalMart are flat after the government sends rebate checks and when many of the products(food and fuel) it sells are up 20%, 30% and more......SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!

When home prices in America's Cities such as Minneapolis, Atlanta, Cleveland and Detroit are down 70%, 80%, 90% and more.....SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!

When costs for food, fuel and insurance have doubled for many American's over the past few years and wages have remained essentially flat....SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!!

When 3 out of 4 home sales in California are foreclosures....SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!!

When CA's gas tax receipts are down and the price of gas us way up....SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!!

When people are telling you the credit crisis is over while defaults and notices of defaults are exploding...SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!

When American companies are announcing layoffs of 10% of the workforce time and time again....SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!

When America's animal shelters are overflowing due to people abandoning their pets due to economic hardship....SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!

When 1 out of 5 American's don't have health insurance....SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!

When one branch of the government tells you gas prices went down in April but another branch tells you prices skyrocketed....SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!

When millions of Americans who are totally reliant on their social security checks to live can't make ends meet as the government keeps the CPI level while prices those people pay for food, fuel, shelter and medicine is skyrocketing.....SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!!

When your government starts hiring scores of new employees to deal with upcoming bank failures....SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!

As the banks start failing, the jobs are lost, the cities and counties declare bankruptcy, the foreclosures keep rising, the incomes decline, the costs go up, the sales go down, the companies shut down, the defaults increase.....we may soon all realize....SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG. 

 

 

 

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 17, 2008 at 11:33 AM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

 NEW YORK (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS - News) cut 1,500 jobs this week across its investment banking, trading and asset management businesses, a person familiar with the situation said Friday, a 5 percent reduction of non-broker employees.

As reported earlier this month, the second-largest investment bank is taking steps to cut 5 percent of employees across almost every business, excluding the retail brokerage division.

Including this latest round, Morgan Stanley has slashed more than 4,400 mortgage, banking and trading jobs to reduce expenses and weather a period of slowing revenue.

Morgan Stanley had 47,050 employees at the end of February.

WOULDN'T 4,400 BE CLOSER TO 10%????  SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG!!!!

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#2) On May 17, 2008 at 12:36 PM, FourthAxis (< 20) wrote:

I've been working on something, but we're just whistling past the graveyard my friend.

FACTS:

Worlds grain reserves are at historically low levels

U.S. seeing worst food inflation in 17 years

The U.S. overspent by $162 Billion in 2007

Oil is at a lifetime high

The banks are borrowing cash at record levels (from fed)

Consumers are borrowing cash at record levels (from credit cards)

Over the last year alone the dollar has lost 10% of it's purchasing power.

California breaks 1,000 foreclosure auctions per day.  

Vallejo, CA files for bankrupcty. 

Vacancy levels are at or near historic highs

Tens of thousands of layoffs

Nothing to see here..."We're closer to the end"

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#3) On May 17, 2008 at 12:45 PM, Evlampius (23.30) wrote:

I dont think we're close to the end yet.

Looking at the other side of the coin - I can see very good speculative opportunities coming up, why don't we capitalize on that?

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#4) On May 17, 2008 at 2:06 PM, AnomaLee (29.23) wrote:

Those numbers are skewed because I didn't get my rebate check yet... Because we know rebate checks will do more for the economy than employment, wise investments, or increasing supply and lowering price levels

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#5) On May 17, 2008 at 3:14 PM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

First Time since 1850!!!!!

“Regionally, nearly 180,000 Sacramento-area homeowners will get tax relief this year as county assessors across the region engage in a wholesale markdown of home values.”

“‘We will have a negative assessment roll for what I think is the first time in the history of the county since 1850,’ said Assessor David Brown. ‘We have had small growth years, but we never had a negative roll.’”

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#6) On May 17, 2008 at 3:24 PM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

“In May, foreclosed homes in San Diego County owned by lenders reached 5,463; an additional 3,413 foreclosed homes were scheduled for auction; and 12,320 homes were in default and headed to foreclosure, says Brian Yui, founder of HouseRebate in San Diego.”

“San Diego County auction sales increased by 50 percent from March to April."

Just 50% IN ONE MONTH!!!!  JUST WAIT TIL MAY.

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#7) On May 17, 2008 at 3:27 PM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

4 OUT OF 5 HOME SALES FORECLOSURES!!!!!

“The sales run for existing homes in San Joaquin County…about 80 percent is the foreclosure sector…continued to pick up speed in April. Prices fell sharply in April, sliding below the $200,000 mark in Stockton, for example, for the first time since March 2003, when the median sales price was $193,000, according to MLS data.

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#8) On May 17, 2008 at 6:46 PM, Tastylunch (29.93) wrote:

Alstry we are mostly in alignment on this. The consumer is indicating that US is in very serious trouble. We'll be lucky if this is only a deep recession.

I own a retail store and I can tell you the consumer is freaked out like we haven't seen in decades.Their spending habits are completely in deep recession mode. Still spending some but on perceived bare essentials, overwhelmingly picking the most inexpensive choice when available and making less trips to the store. Anomalee has a good post on consumer confidence.

As for WMT I think you also have to bear in mind that part of the issue with their numbers is the fact they have done so well optimizing their stores it's virtually impossible for them to improve their same store comps more than 2% in a good quarter...Also WMT has not really raised prices 20-30% yet. They have absorbed much of the cost through drastic cost cutting or by shrinking margin. We have done the same, we are sacrificing margin in attempt to not alienate customers.

Oh and your numbers on Cleveland are way way off. Average home prices are not down 70%+ for the metro just certain bad areas where homes were never very expensive to begin with and the 70%+ markdowns are typically crack houses. Trust me I looked into buying some in February after the Plain dealer broke  the story. :-) 

So very bad yes but apocalpytic? not yet.

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#9) On May 17, 2008 at 7:01 PM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

How do you optimize gasoline, milk, eggs, and loaves of bread?????  Groceries and Gas have become WMT's core revenues.....not to mention the additional revenues from improving consumer electronics penetration.

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#10) On May 19, 2008 at 1:39 PM, zygnoda (26.65) wrote:

It's about optimizing their use of space and the products chosen.  (right product mix, location etc.  I would assume)

I have to agree with Tasty about the houses in Clevland.  It's the same way in Detroit.  Those homes are crappy to begin with...

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