Something's going on and I'll probably never get it. Nov 2006 Peter Schiff Mortgage Bankers Speech Part 5 of 8
My Aresfinancial is #2 in points...abitarePerfect is Top 30 in Points and Ranking.
updown.com abitarecatania is up 122% in 8 months.
I spent my last dollar to by a stock
When I seen this company I could never forget
Now I like nothing better than a value play
And I haven't seen a low P/E in a while
The Money Honey came on and I said I loved the show!
Cheerleading stocks and I couldn't say, "No!"
We got the crib - there's Potash and Gold
I didn't say a word - they just appealed to me
I said, "I don't know them just bought them tonight."
And I started buying everything in sight
D. pulled me over said, "Hide your gold,
The market is crafty like ice is cold!"
The market is crafty - it knows all the moves
I started buying - I thought I knew all the grooves
He thought the market was a thief - and he was right
But I just figured I'd go long tonight
When I woke up late in the afternoon The market had taken all the things from inside his room
I found myself naked in the middle of the floor
The market had taken the bed and the chest of drawers
The mirror, the TV, the guitar cord
My remote control and my old skateboard
The market robbed us blind - she took all we owned
And the boys blamed me for going long.
abitarecatania 12 OCT 08 all rights reserved....
So where are we going?
I have had a long week. I am behind the market at this time. To OUTPERFORM the market you need to be ahead. To get ahead takes time, energy and focus.
I did not have good internet access last week, to monitor everything that happened. This is part of the reason I am behind.
I think there is something big in the works, rally or sell off I am unsure. The US market is ONLY down 40% compared to the global market that is a mild sell off.
My guess and post in Dec 07, was a 25% sell off in the DOW and a 40% sell off in China. But things have unwond at such a pace and the government has done so much damage that it is going to take some time for confidence to return.
I am expecting a Major RALLY or PANIC sell off. Once we get it, I will be doing the opposite with my remaining open positions in CAPS. This is what I expect, this is what we had on Friday.
I am still 50% short (via PUTS) and 50% CASH.
My advice is to trade some nominial for real. Americans have paper dollars, digitial banking, with digits being trade for digits and have very little REAL/Tanigible ASSETS. Things change quickly in war, and the US is in multiple wars, some apparent some not, but the outcomes are not apparent or certain.
On Friday I bought a silver coin collection. I HOPE IT WAS the WORST INVESTMENT I EVER MADE. Seriously, I hope I look back at the total stupidity of the purchase, because if I ever have to sell it or parts of it, that means things have really deteriated for the dollar. I have had a good year in the market and I am buying "SILVER COINS"? I see several BLACK SWANS circling.
The dollar is the last bubble, which no one wants to pop. When/if the dollar looses its status as reserve currency, America will become a lot poorer as a nation.
Gold and silver may come down significantly in the near terms, as assets are sold for cash need for expenses. I still like DUG and can see oil falling further in the near term.
I think the DOW can reach 7000, so does Noueri Ruobini. I think GS and MS might be in major trouble so does Roubini.
Nouriel Roubini, Chairman, RGE Monitor and Professor of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University http://www.iadb.org/news/videos.cfm?arttype=VI&language=En&parid=7#
Nov 2006 Peter Schiff Mortgage Bankers Speech Part 5 of 8