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Something's going on and I'll probably never get it. Nov 2006 Peter Schiff Mortgage Bankers Speech Part 5 of 8

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October 12, 2008 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: DUG , GLD

FYI -

My Aresfinancial is #2 in points...abitarePerfect is Top 30 in Points and Ranking.

My updown.com abitarecatania is up 122% in 8 months.  

A Poem:  

I spent my last dollar to by a stock

When I seen this company I could never forget

Now I like nothing better than a value play

And I haven't seen a low P/E in a while

The Money Honey came on and I said I loved the show!

Cheerleading stocks and I couldn't say, "No!"

We got the crib - there's Potash and Gold

I didn't say a word - they just appealed to me

I said, "I don't know them just bought them tonight."

And I started buying everything in sight

D. pulled me over said, "Hide your gold,

The market is crafty like ice is cold!"

The market is crafty - it knows all the moves

I started buying - I thought I knew all the grooves

He thought the market was a thief - and he was right

But I just figured I'd go long tonight

When I woke up late in the afternoon

The market had taken all the things from inside his room

I found myself naked in the middle of the floor

The market had taken the bed and the chest of drawers

The mirror, the TV, the guitar cord

My remote control and my old skateboard

The market robbed us blind - she took all we owned

And the boys blamed me for going long.

She's Crafty

abitarecatania 12 OCT 08 all rights reserved....

So where are we going?

I have had a long week. I am behind the market at this time. To OUTPERFORM the market you need to be ahead. To get ahead takes time, energy and focus.

I did not have good internet access last week, to monitor everything that happened. This is part of the reason I am behind.

I think there is something big in the works, rally or sell off I am unsure. The US market is ONLY down 40% compared to the global market that is a mild sell off.

My guess and post in Dec 07, was a 25% sell off in the DOW and a 40% sell off in China. But things have unwond at such a pace and the government has done so much damage that it is going to take some time for confidence to return.

I am expecting a Major RALLY or PANIC sell off. Once we get it, I will be doing the opposite with my remaining open positions in CAPS. This is what I expect, this is what we had on Friday.

I am still 50% short (via PUTS) and 50% CASH. My advice is to trade some nominial for real. Americans have paper dollars, digitial banking, with digits being trade for digits and have very little REAL/Tanigible ASSETS. Things change quickly in war, and the US is in multiple wars, some apparent some not, but the outcomes are not apparent or certain.

On Friday I bought a silver coin collection. I HOPE IT WAS the WORST INVESTMENT I EVER MADE. Seriously, I hope I look back at the total stupidity of the purchase, because if I ever have to sell it or parts of it, that means things have really deteriated for the dollar. I have had a good year in the market and I am buying "SILVER COINS"? I see several BLACK SWANS circling.

The dollar is the last bubble, which no one wants to pop. When/if the dollar looses its status as reserve currency, America will become a lot poorer as a nation. 

Gold and silver may come down significantly in the near terms, as assets are sold for cash need for expenses. I still like DUG and can see oil falling further in the near term. 

I think the DOW can reach 7000, so does Noueri Ruobini. I think GS and MS might be in major trouble so does Roubini. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman, RGE Monitor and Professor of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University

http://www.iadb.org/news/videos.cfm?arttype=VI&language=En&parid=7#

Nov 2006 Peter Schiff Mortgage Bankers Speech Part 5 of 8

   

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 12, 2008 at 11:10 PM, MaskedMan2007 (99.27) wrote:

Silver already showed a technical bearish signal on Friday October 10th. I am bearish on it and on gold.

I am looking to go short on gold on the next technical signal. This could easily come this week.

I think that oil will have a small rebound where it will be a good short again and will continue down to 70$

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#2) On October 13, 2008 at 12:58 AM, AnomaLee (28.64) wrote:

MaskedMan2007

I've noticed that as well from a technical analysis standpoint. However, there is a HUGE disconnect between gold derivatives and bullion as of now. There are shortages of gold bullion in different parts of the country similar to the shortages of gasoline in the past several weeks.

I'm no gold bug, but recent developments lead me to believe that we'll see gold surpass $1000-$1200 in 2009 --- which we're only three months away.


AresFinancial

I posted this chart in a recent post....

Unfortunately, I think we've already fallen well below that trend line in real terms. I think we're closer to a nominal bottom, but we will be entering a period of stagnation for several years. 

Today, unlike the Great Depression there's very little alternative to trade. Transactions within our financial system are over 90% digital. I've been someone who's been far more supportive on the USD than many here for several months. I believe what you say when you speak negatively about the USD and understand the affects of the post-Bretton Woods era, but I think many are discounting one alternative and that is even greater acceptance of the USD throughout the world which is something we are all witnessing today and is largely discounted in economic discussions.

The fundamentals of our modern banking system are dramatically different that they were 5 years months ago, and these changes have allowed the USD to strengthen in importance. The world is soon to be flooded with more Treasuries, more efficiently and at this point they will willingly accept it.

If asked I would say there's more air being blown into this bubble as some refer to it.

Regards to precious metals. Personally, I'd say it was a poor investment. I've done much of the same things recently ---- I've held large cash positions and bought more "real" assets instead of financial investments (which I'd prefer to do) only because I found them to be better purchases at the time. I bought a better vehicle, chemical set, increased the amount of non-perishable foods, maintained a supply of gasoline, and many similar items. Sounds crazy... but it helps save on trips to the grocery store when I'm feeling lazy. It's always good to have these things for lesser times.

I want to save time from standing in those possible soup lines... 

If your worst case scenario happens I don't think silver will do much good unless you're planning to hunt werewolves. However, you could trade it back for more binary numbers in your account in the future.

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#3) On October 13, 2008 at 4:00 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Glock 19.  Bushmaster AR-15.  Mossberg 590.  S&W 38 Police Special.  If it gets really crappy.

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#4) On October 13, 2008 at 4:27 AM, abitare (35.58) wrote:

ALCON,

Thanks for the replies.

MaskedMan2007,

I can see silver at $6-10 an ounce as people sell the WINNERS to cover LOSER. Plus the leverage is in gold and silver, no doubt.

AnomaLee,

Very good reply. I think the Bretton Woods Agreement will be rewritten. I will address your points later.

Donnernv,

Not a bad idea, at all. I shot a 38 revolver, last month for the first time and I have to say. I think I like a basic revolver. It was just so easy and lite to carry. A Man or woman could get use to the ease and consistence of a revolver..... 

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#5) On October 13, 2008 at 10:32 AM, Harold71 (21.79) wrote:

However, there is a HUGE disconnect between gold derivatives and bullion as of now.

Yes.  This is even more pronounced in silver.  How can this be explained?  Well, the Comex spot price is not allocating the physical good appropriately, leading to massive shortages at the spot price.

I'd be curious Ares to know if you paid near spot for your silver?  On ebay a legal tender silver coin (and many other silver items) are going for WAY above spot.  Frequently upwards of $20/oz in the case of a silver eagle.  Gold is maybe creeping a bit higher but not like silver.  There are also growing shortages of platinum and palladium anywhere near the spot price.  Kitco and Bulliondirect are both out of small denomination silver (Kitco has 1000 oz bars, BD has none), all platinum, and all palladium.

So yes there is something going on.  People that are seriously viewing this crisis are not buying SLV and GLD.  Both of those can go to zero in the right circumstances.  They are buying the real deal.  People looking the spot price and thinking they can get all the physical bullion they want at that price may need a wake up call.

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#6) On October 13, 2008 at 4:14 PM, abitare (35.58) wrote:

Harold71,

I paid a good premium and I bought it as a collection, so it is not possible to give you a good figure over spot. I worked the best deal I could, but it is a sellers market and sellers can demand a high premium now. 

I bought rare and old coins in varied sizes. I bought it from an antique store paid cash. I hope to never use or sell it. The coins are unique, Standing Liberty Quarter, morgans, PEACE LIBERTY HEAD.

SLV, GLD can be seized by the government. That is what Roosevelt did. Stuff hiden behind a a 38 special are tougher to find.

FYI -  

Gold and silver Ron Paul coins seized Federal agents raid 'Liberty Dollar' headquarters in Indiana

Federal agents raided the headquarters of a group that produces illegal currency and puts it in circulation, seizing gold, silver and two tons of copper coins featuring Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul.

Agents also took records, computers and froze the bank accounts at the "Liberty Dollar" headquarters during the Thursday raid, Bernard von NotHaus, founder of the National Organization for the Repeal of the Federal Reserve Act & Internal Revenue Code, said in a posting on the group's Web site.

The organization, which is critical of the Federal Reserve, has repeatedly clashed with the federal government, which contends that the gold, silver and copper coins it produces are illegal. NORFED claims its Liberty Dollars are inflation free and can restore stability to financial markets by allowing commerce based on a currency that does not fluctuate in value like the U.S. dollar.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21836699/ Report this comment

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