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August 22, 2010 – Comments (10)

However, not all markets are grinding sideways. There are many that are still trending strongly. My favorite (of course) is Gold. For the long term, I always like looking at a monthly chart because it tunes ot the noise (and Gold is *very* noisy). I still see a very strong market in a clear uptrend.



ENLARGE

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 23, 2010 at 12:13 AM, DarthMaul09 (29.78) wrote:

It is hard to keep up with all your blogs, you must type fast.

My comment on your previous blog is probably better suited for this post:

#1) On August 23, 2010 at 12:07 AM, DarthMaul09 (99.09) wrote:

I think that if you ignored the pundits and bought a group of the PM miners in February then you are likely ahead.  Recently, I have been buying silver bars and raising cash, although I did add to TGB, SLW, EGO and some other miners during the sell off two months ago.  I am considering putting a little money into energy stocks, because they have underperformed for most of the summer, but for now I think the miners and metals are a safer bet.

 Now that I have the cut and paste mastered, I ready for your next post.

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#2) On August 23, 2010 at 12:14 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

DarthMaul09 ,

>>It is hard to keep up with all your blogs, you must type fast.

LOL! That's right, I'm a quick draw :)

Yep, I am totally on board with your comment. Thanks!..

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#3) On August 23, 2010 at 12:45 AM, DarthMaul09 (29.78) wrote:

I did buy a little IAG at 17.85 on Friday.  They closed one mine recently, which may have contributed to their decreased gold production in the second quarter, but they also started a new mining project in July, which will probably start showing up as increased production in the 3rd quarter.  Since I believe that gold prices will be supported by Asian buying, I am guessing that 3rd quarter revenue will increase, triggering another rise in the stock price.  They also pay a small dividend, which may grow as well.

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#4) On August 23, 2010 at 12:50 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Nice, I too am a big fan of IAG.

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#5) On August 23, 2010 at 3:24 PM, Griffin416 (99.98) wrote:

To add to this thought, Gold's best month is undoubtedly September, there have been strong gains for 10 out of the last 14 years.

Excuse me,  but a completely separate subject...I did not know where else to ask. What do you think of the Visa 4 month chart? It has a nice ultra multiple bottom (which is bullish).  But as I look, it also has a decending triangle (lower highs with multiple bottom) which is very bearish. What do you make of this chart? Both patterns, are very clear to see, which is unusual.

Practically (which I am) the easy thing to do is buy with a stop at $70.

Thanks in advance, Griffin

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#6) On August 23, 2010 at 3:42 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Griffin416 ,

Hey Griffin!

>>To add to this thought, Gold's best month is undoubtedly September, there have been strong gains for 10 out of the last 14 years.

100% agreed. In fact I make mention of that very point here: http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/my-hat-is-old-my-teeth-are-gold-and-now.html

>>What do you think of the Visa 4 month chart? It has a nice ultra multiple bottom (which is bullish).  But as I look, it also has a decending triangle (lower highs with multiple bottom) which is very bearish. What do you make of this chart? Both patterns, are very clear to see, which is unusual.

Wow, what a mess. When I step back and look at a 2-year daily chart, that 70 level is clear support. Plus we have lots of positive divergence so there is a clear case to be made that it is basing.

Yet.... that is an unmistakeable descending triangle, which as you point out is a continuation pattern down.

My gut says its bearish. But there is no way I would trade it that way. V is at an inflection point and I don't think we could know until it breaks one way or the other.

>>Practically (which I am) the easy thing to do is buy with a stop at $70.

That might be a nice play. Because if this does reverse to the upside, that would be a nice move to capture..

Thanks!, 

..

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#7) On August 23, 2010 at 4:36 PM, Starfirenv (< 20) wrote:

B-Man-  >> ...I always like looking at a monthly chart because it tunes out the noise...
  Yup, but keep an eye on the "seasonality" chart also. Here is a 20yr ending 12.31.09.
   http://wallstcheatsheet.com/trading-markets/your-cheat-sheet-to-gold-stock-seasonality/?p=15586/
  Also, on a related note, you may find this of interest, part 1 of three by one of my faves.
   http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14581:bullion-as-an-alternative-to-shorting-part-i&catid=48:gold-commentary&Itemid=131 

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#8) On August 23, 2010 at 4:41 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Starfirenv ,

Hey man!

>> Yup, but keep an eye on the "seasonality" chart also.

100% agreed. In fact I make mention of that very point here: http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/my-hat-is-old-my-teeth-are-gold-and-now.html.

>>Also, on a related note, you may find this of interest, part 1 of three by one of my faves.

Awesome! I will check it out. Thanks!.

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#9) On August 23, 2010 at 6:40 PM, Option1307 (29.91) wrote:

I haven't looked at Visa in a long time, but I have to say that chart is tempting me to take a small gamble. Interesting!

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#10) On August 23, 2010 at 10:01 PM, Valyooo (99.63) wrote:

I bought in V at 70.80 today.  I should have let it lower before jumping in, doh! but still holding till 74ish

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