alstry (35.90)

SPF worth NEGATIVE $10 per share????

May 13, 2008 – Comments (1)

Right now SPF represents to shareholders and investors that its book value is about $13 per share.  Approx $2.9BB in assets and $2.1 BB in liabilities.  If you believe that number I have a suspension bridge I can sell you in any desert in the world.

To show you how ridiculous the number is we won't even address SPF's HUGE OFF BALANCE SHEET issues that make the real book even less.

SPF represents as assets $2.0 Billion of inventory.  Most of that inventory is land and likely worth less than $0.50 on the dollar[we have seen recent land sales at less than $0.20 on the dollar].  THERE goes $1 Billion[it would likely be much much higher if we included JVs].

SPF has about $250 million in goodwill, other, and tax deferred assets.  In this environment, those assets are likely worth close to ZERO.  Subtract another $200 million just to be conservative.

Applying the above logic to investments in unconsolidated subsidiaries and we remove another $100 million.

Add it all up, factor JVs, and we get a value of much more than NEGATIVE $10 per share.

And WALL STREET analysts have targets of $5 per share.  Who is snowing who????  How much would you pay for a company is worth that is losing hundreds of millions per quarter and its debt is much much higher than the value of the assets?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.