I am continuing with the count that I have been showing since Friday
- Captain Crunch - Friday
- Update on the ES Count / Pattern - Monday
- Omelette au Fromage - Tuesday
I think we are still in Minor 2. Now there are two main options
1) My preferred: The move yesterday was the A leg of Minor 2
2) Alternate: The move yesterday was the C leg of an Expanded Flat that started in the middle of last week.
I think my preferred count is the most likely count, but like I have said many times in the past, EW and TA is not about being "right", it is a tool to help you evaluate risk and to evaluate *possible or likely* moves (when is a good time to take partial or full profits, when is a good time to hedge, when is a good time to cut a losing position, etc.) So even though I think Minor 2 will continue, we are at the juncture of a Minute Wave structure. If the next move is choppy / sideways then we have a B wave. And if it is impulsive down, then it is likely to be the start of Minor 3.
So what I did yesterday was to exit out of my long positions (for a small profit) and established some pilot shorts. I will wait to see how the next Minute Wave develops to see if add to shorts or if I will hedge longs to play the C wave.
Again, both count options are viable. And, despite what anybody tells you, *NOBODY* _knows_ the future or can use EW to predict what will happen next with absolute certainty. For me, this juncture here suggests a mindset like I outline above is the prudent course of action (for a short term swing trading perspective. Longer term position traders will have a different mindset, see my conversation with hindawg - http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/captain-crunch.html#comment-32099940).
If you are interested in seeing how I play these Minor/Minute Waves, please see here (read *all* the notes first around the portfolios) - Positions/Portfolios
Here is my current count