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camistocks (< 20)

Steve Leuthold says "short term correction, 1100 for the S&P 500 before year end."

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June 24, 2009 – Comments (16)

Steve Leuthold, who has his own version of the Coppock curve, is bullish. And as mentioned in a previous blog he is not a permabull or permabear. In fact his bearish Grizzly short fund returned more than 70% last year...!

Also check out this article I posted before on the Coppock curve:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aW6PiO4Yzdz8 

 

 

16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 24, 2009 at 11:15 PM, camistocks (< 20) wrote:

PS - this interview was from 06/19/2009, sorry I'm a bit late... ;-)

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#2) On June 25, 2009 at 12:06 AM, Tastylunch (29.19) wrote:

Now this guy is a guy I agree with. Man How cool is that Cami that we finally agree on something?

Larry Williams is also calling for a bear drift till fall then a possible expolsive bull moves.

I pay a lot of attention to those two.

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#3) On June 25, 2009 at 12:43 AM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

i like that guy.  he's not a permaXXXX (bear or bull), he's rational, he looks unique, he has a unique voice, he's rich, he has a great track record, whats not to like?

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#4) On June 25, 2009 at 1:33 AM, JakilaTheHun (99.94) wrote:

I'm with checklist.  I like this guy, too.  I mostly agree with him, but I'll probably start pushing more towards bonds if I see the Dow tip 9500-10000 (not sure what the equivalent level on the S&P would be - 1025 - 1075?).  Or at the very least, I'll start shifting around significantly.

I don't believe we'll have "hyperinflation", though.  I'm simply hopeful that we have inflation at all, which is vastly better than deflation.  If we can somehow keep it below 7%, that would be great, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with 70s-style staglation with moderately high inflation (10% - 15%). 

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#5) On June 25, 2009 at 1:54 AM, AnomaLee (28.51) wrote:

cami,

I finally concede that this year marks the end of the great bear. Inflaton is upon us. Gold just entered into a new bull as of March coinciding with the stock market lows, and the USD is on the precipice of entering another lengthy period of bearishness.

Inflation returning from a lower trough. The result will be little to no positive real returns for the overall market.

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#6) On June 25, 2009 at 1:57 AM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

jakila, i also agree that if bernanke stays hyperinflation is unlikley.  and i also agree that ath S&P 1050-1100 stocks are substantially less attractive than they are today, so that at that point i plan to take a heck of a hedge.

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#7) On June 25, 2009 at 2:22 AM, LongTermBull (92.53) wrote:

and i also agree that ath S&P 1050-1100 stocks are substantially less attractive than they are today, so that at that point i plan to take a heck of a hedge.

But what if the ride to 1100 was backed by positive earnings and an improving economy, and the P/E of the S&P was 13?  Price is not always an indicator of value.

Earnings right now are pretty bad.  The economy may be improving, I don't really know, but there is no doubt businesses are making less money today then they were say 2 years ago.  So if stocks are cheap now it does not mean they will not be cheap tomorrow.  Now if the S&P went to 1100 and earnings were still bad that is another matter.

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#8) On June 25, 2009 at 2:30 AM, portefeuille (99.58) wrote:

fertig!

Great video. At the end of it you could click another one. In yours he said that he had advised people not to invest in his grizzly short fund. That second video is from March 4 and what does he say there? Exactly that. Don't invest in my grizzly fund. Buy stocks. He is a good man.

Die Resultate meiner "Analyse" sind jetzt bei flickr und die Erklärungen und links sind in den Kommentaren verstreut.

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#9) On June 25, 2009 at 8:14 AM, MattH42004 (30.24) wrote:

Thats a smart man. To me, Leuthold and Kass have acquitted themselves better than any other money managers I know of during these last few years. Coincidently, they are also calling for 1100 and 1050 respectively by years end. Food for thought. You want to know what might have been the best part of that clip though? The host. Not a single interruption, no injections of personal opinion, and no mindless market cheerleading. Just allowing a great investor to talk about what he's thinking for a while. CNBC should take notes. Thanks for the clip!

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#10) On June 26, 2009 at 12:51 PM, jddubya (52.64) wrote:

#7 - LOL (I'm laughing at myself)

"So if stocks are cheap now it does not mean they will not be cheap tomorrow."

Wow, I had to read this several times - that double negative had my head spinning for a moment.  More coffee, more coffee.

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#11) On June 28, 2009 at 6:46 PM, camistocks (< 20) wrote:

Thanks all for your comments and sorry for the delay....

 

Tasty - Are you sure we agree? Leuthold says correction almost over... :-)

I have no idea who Larry Williams is...

 

JakilaTheHun - I agree, there won't be hyperinflation, but somewhere between 5-15%. It's going to come 3-5 years from now. (just a guess) It depends what the Fed does. Will they increase interest rates in time? And thus induce a new recession...?

 

AnomaLee - oho? so is this a contrary signal and I should become bearish....? :-)

Yeah inflation is somewhere ahead, 3-5 years maybe? Gold is a no brainer long term and should outperform inflation because of demand for hard money.

 

checklist - will he stay or will he go? Apparently the time after the collaps of Lehman was extremely stressful. Hey, his beard has turned white....:-)

 

Longtermbull - Agreed, while from today's point of view 1100 may seem not so cheap, it may be at the end of the year, when the economy rebounds. I expect the recession to be over right about now. Q3 should be flat and Q4...?

 

Portefeuille - yeah, he's got nothing to prove anymore at his age. He has seen it all. I doubt bears like David Tice (prudentbear.com) or the Comstock brothers (ComstockFunds.com) or Nouriel Roubini or Meredith Whitney recommended buying.... No everything is going to be much much worse.... :-)

Freut mich das es jetzt geklappt hat mit dem Einbetten der Graphiken. Werde mich dann mal durchkämpfen... ;.) 

 

Matt - that's the difference between Bloomberg and CNBC. At Bloomberg the guests are treated like stars with respect, while at CNBC the moderator is the star. I was shocked when Bloomberg also introduced special effects with charts... :-)

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#12) On June 28, 2009 at 7:07 PM, portefeuille (99.58) wrote:

Freut mich das es jetzt geklappt hat mit dem Einbetten der Graphiken. Werde mich dann mal durchkämpfen... ;.)

mach das nicht! auf jeden fall nicht auf die konventionelle art. starte am besten mit kommentar nr. 23 hier (zuerst die schönen künste ...) und kämpfe Dich von da nach oben ...

 

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#13) On June 28, 2009 at 7:44 PM, camistocks (< 20) wrote:

portefeuille - hey danke. Was ist das, ein reverse posting? :-) Man fängt unten an und kämpft sich nach oben. Was neues... 

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#14) On June 28, 2009 at 7:58 PM, portefeuille (99.58) wrote:

ja, ganz neues konzept!

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#15) On June 29, 2009 at 1:44 AM, Tastylunch (29.19) wrote:

camistocks

I didn't interpret his comments that way, but it depends I guess on timeframe. To me The next major rally opportunity I see is likely in the fall, which would not be inconsistent with his end of year price targets.

But yeah for us, this is as close to agreeing as we've ever been so far I would say. :)

Larry Williams= one of the greatest commodity traders I've ever heard of, He turned 10k into a million in one year (!) in a contest once, created several TA tools (Ultimate Oscillator, Williams %R, Will Go), also a criminal due to tax evasion.

Not paying taxes can improve your returns substanially I'd imagine :)

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#16) On July 10, 2009 at 6:48 PM, portefeuille (99.58) wrote:

A "Perma-Bear" Warms to Stocks

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