Still Holding to Original Prediction
I have been holding the theory that Obama will win on November 6. Nothing has changed that position.
I find it interesting that the blog sit 538 gives Obama a 79% chance of winning.
Using data from 1920 to present, I see Obama with a 88.4% chance of winning, and a 98% chance of doing better than 1.7%
Using data from 1892 to present, it is a more modest prediction of a 84.8% chance of winning and 98% chance of doing better than 0.3%.
We shall see. If the predictions are not correct, then the model is revised. It's revised regardless...