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TheBarnacle (87.50)

Still Holding to Original Prediction

Recs

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November 05, 2012 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY , QQQ , DIA

I have been holding the theory that Obama will win on November 6. Nothing has changed that position.

I find it interesting that the blog sit 538 gives Obama a 79% chance of winning.

Using data from 1920 to present, I see Obama with a 88.4% chance of winning, and a 98% chance of doing better than 1.7%

Using data from 1892 to present, it is a more modest prediction of a 84.8% chance of winning and 98% chance of doing better than 0.3%.

We shall see.  If the predictions are not correct, then the model is revised.  It's revised regardless...

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 05, 2012 at 11:51 AM, L0RDZ (84.26) wrote:

Well thats just your  opinion man...  lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkADiJCYS2k

Where are  you coming up with these numbers  and  why  are they so  relevant  ? 

Why  because  he's  an  incumbent ?  isn't  the  economy  all  fubared up ?  oh  wait  it's  not  the Potus's  fault ?   aren't  we  still headed  towards  a  cliff  strapped  with  explosives  and  fools  competing  still  as  to who can step  on  the gas  more harder.

Wasn't  Sandy  Obama's  fault...  or  maybe Clinton's  

Whats  his  solution,  hey  lets  have  the government  pay  for everything, it's  free...   when  it's  never  really  free...  the  catch and costs  usually  will  out weigh  any benefits.

I  know  this  come  later  this week,  a  lot  of  people will be disapointed,   maybe  some  will  refuse  to play ball  or  compromise on  any  principles  or  talking points.

The  key question  is  who will decide  ?   strangely  it  will be  who-ever  the  vote  counters  determine  who  wins  certain electoral  votes.  We  already  know  who  the majority  of  several  groups will be blindly  voting  for   and  unfortunately  the  no  fun police will not allow  me  the  freedom  to  openly  speak  about  it.

I predict  the turn out will be  no where near  as  potent as  in 2008.

 

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#2) On November 05, 2012 at 3:57 PM, Schmacko (79.83) wrote:

I keep coming up with Obama 790 electoral college votes and Romney 748

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#3) On November 06, 2012 at 12:12 PM, Schmacko (79.83) wrote:

that should say 290 to 248.... don't know how that happened.

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#4) On November 06, 2012 at 3:15 PM, TheBarnacle (87.50) wrote:

I use S&P 500 data, misery index, rep v. dem in office, and incumbency to generate the model. 

Dem in office (-)

Incumbent (+)

S&P 500 improvement (+)

Misery Index improvement (+)

Enough said, at least until tomorrow when we know who won.

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