MikeBobulinski (< 20)

Still waiting...

May 20, 2009 – Comments (3)

DISCLAIMER:  Novice point of view ahead... 

I have spent the past week or so watching things unfold in the world of the stock market.  I have been equally amused and confused by the volatility in the market.  Last week, the "pull back" that seemed to occur looked like we might have reached a top or a plateau before moving in either direction.  This week, things have been equally volatile, but appear to be trading in a bit of a range bound fashion.

There have been no real catalysts to drive things one way or the other.  Yet, the market continues to hover around DOW at 8500.  Is this the market putting in a top?  Are the bears going to get their much desired correction?  Are the bulls going to regroup during this pause and then bust a move to another high? I don't honestly know.

I have seen that numbers continue to worsen in the economic reports that have been coming out.  We have all seen the blogs that the negative numbers have generated here on TMF.  I have started to mull over exit strategies in my real life portfolio and started to wonder if my experiment with FAZ/SKF is going to pay off.

Why have I been amused by this?  That which amuses me is how my real life portfolio has been out performing the market.  It amuses me, because I can't honestly determine why.

What confuses me about all of this?  The continued press upward despite all of the negative reports (unemployment, housing, financials, governments running out of money, etc.)  Everything seems to point towards the market flying upward on fumes...proving that if you strap on a big enough engine you can make anything fly...but bringing into question just how quickly and how dramatically that flying object will return to earth when the fumes run out and there is nothing there to drive the flight...

So what am I waiting for?  Aside from a break in the bad news, something of an indicator that the market is going to move in one direction or another. I know the holy grail of investing.  But really, two weeks of relatively sideways, albeit volatile, movement.  Is this a top?  Or is this a plateau waiting to be leapt from to newer heights?  I don't know, but I am certainly pleased with the way things are working out in my real world portfolio, and much of that amusement can be attributed to knowledge shared here on TMF...so thanks to the rest of the fools out there...Fool on.