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goldminingXpert (29.76)

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July 06, 2010 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: RJET , TSO , TGB

Many people think I'm too bearish. But, contrary to what it may seem, I do actually buy stocks as well as shorting them. Here's a quicklist of stuff that's interesting at current prices.

RJET (Republic Airways) -- The owner of Frontier, Midwest, and several smaller regional airlines, RJET is positioned as an interesting growing player in the airline space. I expect profit margins to be decent in the air space as jet fuel prices have been contained recently. Frontier will have a big battle ahead of itself with Southwest and United in Denver, but my understanding of the situation -- I live in CO and often fly out of Denver, is that Frontier will be able to capitalize on superior service and hometown loyalty enough to survive and perhaps do better than that for quite awhile. The stock is trading down on news that the company may buy American Eagle airlines, American's regional carrier, which should not be as bearish to RJET as the market is acting.

TSO (Tesoro) -- We have an opportunity to buy TSO at a 52 week low and near the 08 lows. Unless Americans are going to quit using gasoline, TSO has a solid future ahead of it. While crack spreads (profit margins for refiners) aren't great now, they generally pick up in the summer and/or hurricane season, and refiners generally will artificially constrain supply (oh, um, yeah, we need to uh, "repair" all of our refineries for the next two weeks) to get their profit margins back up. Consider that oil prices appear to be drifting lower, and things are looking good for refiners in general and TSO in particular.

TGB (Taseko Mines) -- Haven't owned or traded this one in ages (last bought it in the 2's in 2007), but it is interesting again as a government agency threw cold water on TGB's efforts to get their Prosperity mine permitted. It is highly unlikely that this block will be permanent, and as such, TGB should recovery sharply when Prosperity carries on. The company has a successful mine already operating -- the Gibralter mine can sustain the company for quite awhile, but once Prosperity comes back into the picture, look for the stock to head toward the 5s.

Other stocks I'm watching and thinking of buying: JAG, RIG, IKAN, CLMT, HAWK, BSPM

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 06, 2010 at 2:07 PM, motleyanimal (93.53) wrote:

Tesoro will get a nice price boost if the California proposition to delay AB32 passes in November.

 

http://articles.sfgate.com/2010-06-23/bay-area/21921321_1_state-debra-bowen-ballot-oil-industry

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#2) On July 06, 2010 at 2:50 PM, goldminingXpert (29.76) wrote:

Hmm. Interesting link -- wasn't aware of that. Thanks motleyanimal.

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#3) On July 06, 2010 at 3:31 PM, Griffin416 (99.98) wrote:

I like TGB, but clearly there is some dirty stock action that needs to be watched (are you listening SEC!). On Thursday, the stock dropped about double what other copper stocks were doing. Even a blog came out saying does anybody know what happened to TGB? A ton of comments and no answers. Clearly we have an answer now. Be careful.

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#4) On July 06, 2010 at 6:35 PM, MegaEurope (24.98) wrote:

I doubt there's anything to the American Eagle rumor.  That would be too way big for Republic to swallow.  Skywest might be able to do it though.

I have been buying more RJET shares on the current dip.

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#5) On July 06, 2010 at 6:36 PM, MegaEurope (24.98) wrote:

*way too

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#6) On July 06, 2010 at 6:40 PM, rockbox64 (< 20) wrote:

Why BioStar?  Its a cruel stock. 

 

 

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#7) On July 06, 2010 at 7:33 PM, 100ozRound (29.70) wrote:

GMX:  You're in syndication

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#8) On July 06, 2010 at 10:21 PM, goldminingXpert (29.76) wrote:

100oz: Thanks for the link ... interesting.

MegaEurope: I agree, which is why I think RJET shouldn't be selling off on said rumors.

Rockbox64: Because we buy when there is pain. BioStar is causing lots of pain -- but unless its finances are entirely made up (a possibility I admit), it will go up from here. 

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#9) On July 07, 2010 at 4:31 AM, DarthMaul09 (29.89) wrote:

I agree with you on TGB and actually bought more shares down at $3.40 today.  I set more limit orders beginning at $3.20 if more irrational selling continues.  TGB has been a profitable mine, which has improved its financial since last year.

Key stats and ratios
                                        Q1 (Mar '10)                    2009

Net profit margin                    101.25%                    5.59%

Operating margin                    18.95%                     5.96%

Return on average assets       53.74%                     2.08%

Return on average equity        97.06%                     3.60%

There is a reason that there are many mining companies in Canada, its because their projects tend to get approved.  Canada has been careful to avoid environmental disasters, but if the financial reward outweighs the low environmental risk, the deal will get done.  This stock may not be the next TCK, but TCK was also a $2 dollar Canadian stock not that long ago, before China invested in it.  TGB may follow a similar path with its Japanese partner, although it's unlikely to have a 10 fold increase in price over a year.  A more realistic goal would be breaking $6/share within the next 12 months.  

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#10) On July 07, 2010 at 6:15 PM, TigerPack1 (99.02) wrote:

goldminingX -

You definitely jinxed me with your post a few days ago!

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