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February 06, 2009 – Comments (18)

Stocks Up!

It is getting interesting…. “experts”, fools and liars keep popping up on TV explaining whether we are going into a recession, depression, inflation, deflation, reflation, stagflation, hyperinflation or it is over, just beginning, about to end….etc.

No one knows. We are all just guessing

Zimbabwe- hyper-inflation and currency collapse

Japan- 25 year deflation/recession, declining real estate, stocks and declining yen

Iceland – almost overnight implosion, currency collapse, country collapse

Soviet Union – 10 years deflation, shortages, then default, currency collapse and the SU breaks apart into separate states.

America's 1930s Great Depression – high unemployment, 15 years of deflation and the totalitarian seizure of citizens gold and creation of near fiat currency

Weimar Germany – high unemployment and hyper inflation

UK – loss of empire, erosion of wealth, erosion lifestyle, socialist wealth destruction, currency controls and poverty

My best GUESS is deflation then civil unrest to higher inflation. Just a Wag, time and severity are unknown, like the 1970s, with a poorer population in general.

I am not sure where the market is going, really. It is day to day. We are in the deflation part, but Wall Street and their puppets in DC are looking to print more money to “help us”. So in the near term I am staying short stocks, I was 50% cash, but I increased my short position into today’s rally. We could be into deflation for a decade, look at the Case Shiller Index, as home prices fall so will stocks, IMO.  

Stock Up!

I think we are in the biggest systemic crisis in 30 years. Stocks up? Stocks down? No idea…but I do know in the next five to ten years I will need socks, white T-shirts, boxers (silk of course! that is how live FOOL! j/k), bed sheets, AR-15 + rounds, silver bullets (werewolves)  etc…

The US might have reached peak credit, peak retail, peak consumption etc….

Going forward, there is talk of a trade war, wealth destroying socialism, retail bankruptcies, higher taxes, more government destroying interventions etc….

If you are gainfully employed and have some unemployed cash sitting around, why not STOCK UP?

I posted, a buy list outside of Stocks, on February 24, 2008

I recommend you print the list even if you are not going to use it, yet.

1. A generator. (expensive, Gasoline, storage, risky & noisy...targets of thieves; maintenance etc.)

2. Water Filters/Purifiers/ Chlorox for purification of water.

3. Portable Toilet and toilet paper.

4. Seasoned Firewood. Firewood takes about 6 - 12 months to become dried enough, for burning.

5. Lamp Oil, Wicks, Lamps (First Choice: Buy CLEAR oil. If scarce, stockpile ANY and all!)

6. Coleman Fuel. Impossible to stockpile too much.

7. Guns, Ammunition, Pepper Spray, Knives, Clubs, Bats & Slingshots.

8. Hand-can openers, & hand egg beaters, whisks.

9. Honey/Syrups/white & brown sugars

10. Rice - Beans - Wheat - Bread

11. Vegetable Oil (for cooking/ without it food burns, etc.,)

12. Charcoal, Lighter Fluid (will become suddenly scarce )

13. Water Containers (Urgent Item to obtain.) Fill up any size. Small, many, PLASTIC ONLY - note - food grade for drinking.

16. Propane Cylinders and grills (Urgent: Definite shortages will occur.

17. Survival Guide Book.

18. Mantles: Aladdin, Coleman, etc. (Without this item, longer-term lighting is difficult.)

19. Baby Supplies: Diapers/Formula, Ointments/Aspirin, Vaseline, etc. First Aid items.

20. Washboards, Mop Bucket w/wringer (for Laundry)

21. Cookstoves (Propane, Coleman & Kerosene)

22. Vitamins

23. Propane Cylinder Handle-Holder (Urgent: Small canister use is dangerous without this item)

24. Feminine Hygiene/Haircare/Skin products.

25. Thermal underwear (Tops & Bottoms)

26. Bow saws, axes and hatchets, Wedges (also, hones, and oil)

27. Aluminum Foil Reg. & Heavy Duty (good for Cooking and Bartering)

28. Gasoline Containers (closed, Plastic & Metal) Store safely remote from living quarters.

29. Heavy plastic Garbage Bags (Impossible To Have Too Many).

30. Toilet Paper, Kleenex, Paper Towels, Plastic Baggies

31. Milk - Powdered & Condensed (Shake Liquid every 3 to 4 months)

32. Garden Seeds (Non-Hybrid)

33. Clothes pins/line/hangers

34. Coleman's Pump Repair Kit

35. Tuna Fish (in oil)

36. Fire Extinguishers (or..large box of Baking Soda in every room)

37. First aid kits

38. Batteries (all sizes...buy longest dated expiration Dates)

39. Garlic, spices & vinegar, baking supplies

40. Big Dogs (and plenty of dog food)

41. Flour, yeast & ....salt. One can't survive without salt.

42. Matches. ("Strike Anywhere"/ Boxed, wooden/ matches will go first. Keep in Baggies.

43. Writing paper/pads/pencils, solar calculators

44. Insulated ice chests (good for keeping items from freezing in Wintertime.)

45. Workboots, belts, slickers, Levis & durable shirts, gloves, work shoes

46. Flashlights/lightsticks & torches, "No. 76 Dietz" Lanterns

47. Journals, Diaries & Scrapbooks (jot down ideas, feelings, experience; Historic Times)

48. Garbage cans, wheeled/Plastic . Great for storage of water, and transporting same.

49. Men's Hygiene: Shampoo, Toothbrush/paste, Mouthwash/floss, nail clippers, condoms, etc

50. Cookware (light, sturdy, teflon, efficient)

51. Fishing supplies/tool

52. Mosquito coils/repellent, sprays/creams/ointments.

53. Duct Tape

54. Tarps/stakes/twine/nails/rope/spikes

55. Candles

56. Laundry Detergent (liquid)

57. Backpacks, Duffel Bags

58. Garden tools & supplies

59. Scissors, fabrics & sewing supplies

60. Canned Fruits, Veggies, Soups, stews, etc.

61. Bleach ( plain, NOT scented: 4 to 6% Sodium Hypochlorite..Chlorox)

62. Canning supplies, (Jars w/lids)

63. Knives & Sharpening tools: files, stones, steel

64. Bicycles...Tires/tubes/pumps/chains, etc

65. Sleeping Bags & blankets/pillows/mats

66. Carbon Monoxide Alarm (battery powered)

67. Books/Board Games/Cards & Dice

68. D-con Rat poison, MOUSE PRUFE II, Roach Killer

69. Mousetraps, Ant traps & Cockroach magnets

70. Paper plates/cups/utensils (stock up, folks)

71. Baby wipes, powder/ oils, waterless & Antibacterial soap (saves a lot of water)

72. Rain gear, rubberized boots, etc.

73. Shaving supplies (razors & creams, talc, after shave)

74. Hand pumps & siphons (for water and for fuels)

75. Soy sauce, vinegar, bullions/gravy/soup base

76. Spare reading glasses/binoculars.

77. Chocolate/Cocoa/Tang/Punch (water enhancers)

78. "Survival-in-a-Can", C-rations, MRE's

79. Woolen clothing, scarves/ear-muffs/mittens/gloves

80. Boy Scout Handbook, / also Leaders Catalog

81. Window Insulation Kit (MANCO)/ 4X8' Plywood w/nails/hammer

82. Graham crackers, saltines, pretzels, Trail mix/Jerky

83. Popcorn, Peanut Butter, Nuts

84. Socks, Underwear, T-shirts, etc. (extras)

85. Lumber (any and all types)

86. Wagons & carts (for tranport to and from)

87. Cots & Inflatable mattress's

88. Gloves: Work/warming/gardening, etc.

89. Lantern Hangers

90. Screen Patches, glue, nails, screws,, nuts & bolts

91. Teas

92. Coffee

93. Cigarettes

94.Wine/Liquors (for bribes, medicinal, etc,)

95. Paraffin wax

96. Glue, nails, nuts, bolts, screws, etc.

97. Chewing gum/candies

98. Atomizers (for cooling/bathing)

99. Hats & cotton neckerchiefs, muffler

100. Chickens, Goats/ edible animals, traps

rwilso01 (99.38) wrote:

How about a solar water heater bag.  Everyone loves hot showers.

18 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 06, 2009 at 6:32 PM, awallejr (79.57) wrote:

Well since you want people to buy all that stuff on your list, how about buying stock in the companies that make them?

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#2) On February 06, 2009 at 6:35 PM, jeffduby (21.66) wrote:

Don't forget booze!

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#3) On February 06, 2009 at 6:58 PM, abitare (88.86) wrote:

jeffduby,

Yep, no doubt, or make your own booze.

awallejr,

That is a good question really. 

If I buy 6 pairs of underwear, I see it, I feel it, it has utility, I can sell them on ebay AND THERE IS NO LEVEL THREE ACCOUNTING, bad management, hedge fund manipulation, looming bankruptcies, over paid management, overpaid boards, ENRON crap, Madoff etc....

Truth is these days, who really trust the US market. Maybe with some income...once dividends reach double digits to reward me for the risk, most common stock, forget it. I am just buying mostly PUTS and in and out of ultra shorts. 

Once the US market tanks hard, they have a "coming to Jesus revival" and they throw some of these Wall Street criminals in Jail, we can talk. Right now this market is not the place to PROTECT your wealth. We will see, I can wait.  

Additionially, I think due to the systemic nature of this crisis, having real assets as apposed to paper backed up with paper is an okay strategy.

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#4) On February 06, 2009 at 7:00 PM, Schmacko (55.17) wrote:

Booze was # 94 on the list

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#5) On February 06, 2009 at 7:03 PM, abitare (88.86) wrote:

TMFEldrehad

Just posted about this "Buy American" stuff coming out of DC. Like I said, better buy it now while it is cheap and on the shelves. 

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#6) On February 06, 2009 at 7:04 PM, motleyanimal (79.87) wrote:

Indeed.

And where is the Concertina wire and marijuana seeds on your list?

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#7) On February 06, 2009 at 7:04 PM, awallejr (79.57) wrote:

I won't disagree that this has been nothing but a trader's market, very difficult for the longterm fundamental investor.

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#8) On February 06, 2009 at 7:06 PM, bridgeboy0 (32.74) wrote:

Ok, let me see if I have this right.  We're going into a deflation phase (where items become cheaper) but we should stock up now (before prices drop).

Then things are going to become scarce.  I suppose if everything is cheap then people will be buying and making things scarce, except of course that you also say that everyone is losing their jobs, so they won't have any money with which to buy things.

All this makes sense in your world, I suppose.

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#9) On February 06, 2009 at 7:18 PM, devoish (97.09) wrote:

Forget the Mosquito sprays (or sprays of any kind) after two years they will not spray. Use creams or waxes. Add suntan lotion.

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#10) On February 06, 2009 at 7:52 PM, abitare (88.86) wrote:

ALCON, 

Thanks for th replies.  I should state, the fact that you might think this post is ridiculous, is fine with me. I am speaking to those that might seak a different direction beyond the "normal" junk on TV. I am sincere, that if you live in a safe place and have the wealth and space, you should have a stock pile. PERIOD. Sorry if you disagree.

As I recall, when I climbed to Top Fool on 21 Nov 08 and as I sit #2 in points here in this video game of stock picking... most Fools though I was crazy then, stupid like a fox, I am.  

motleyanimal,

Weed is illegal in most states. The last place you want to be is in jail, if things continue to unwind. Many third world prisioners rely on friends and relatives on the outside for food etc.... 

The time line for a trade war, is not known, the severity is not known, the impact is not known, the dollar collapse time line is not known or guaranteed. But if you are going to live to 70+ you are going to need socks. 

bridgeboy0,

Welcome BACK to positive territory! Good to hear from you. The deflation phase will be temporary. You are stock piling as a hedge, as a possible exchangable investment and as insurance in case their is a continued systemic breakdown. 

Things are cheap now due to forced liquidation, extreme competition in the retail sector. That will change with all the bankruptcies, credit crisis, trade war and loss of reserve currency status. 

I can take a horse to water, but I cannot make it drink.

devoish

Good call.

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#11) On February 06, 2009 at 7:59 PM, abitare (88.86) wrote:

bridgeboy0,

Your CAPS portfolio is actually, looking pretty good here. If the Ultra shorts continue to ultra suck, you might be climbing pretty high from here. 

Gold is moving to bubble territory.

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#12) On February 06, 2009 at 8:06 PM, tonylogan1 (28.24) wrote:

Few more things came to my mind... sorry if any of these are repeats...

gasmasks, radiation protection tablets, visqueen, physical metals (bribes), weather radio, disinfecting hand sanitizer, Powdered Lime, burn treatment supplies, materials to black out your windows (so no light can be seen by passersby), night vision goggles, large cooking pot, garden tools, large ax, farm land, bomb shelter, fishing equipment, salt blocks, chainsaw, deep freezer (stock up), anti-diarrhea medicine, water storage 55 Gallon barrel(s), rain poncho...



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#13) On February 06, 2009 at 8:45 PM, EnigmaDude (84.94) wrote:

abitare - where do you live?  I want to be as far away from you as possible if (or when, as you say) the sh*t hits the fan!

Oh - and I'd rather have weed than socks -- and coffee.  You can keep the rest of that crap.

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#14) On February 06, 2009 at 9:19 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Little do they know. Thanks for the list. We will need it. Can peaches,pears,peas,and what not. LQ>

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#15) On February 06, 2009 at 9:20 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Little do they know. Thanks for the list. We will need it. Can peaches,pears,peas,and what not. LQ>

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#16) On February 06, 2009 at 10:24 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

The best laugh I had all night.

 

Yup...Haven't smoked it in 20 years, but if it comes to that, how bout a little weed?  Rolling em is like riding a bicycle, yoiu never forget once you learn.  Perhaos a pipe would be better.  The food would be really crappy, so I'd need to "stoke" my appetite. A few gold and silver coins would be handy.

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#17) On February 09, 2009 at 7:44 AM, StockSpreadsheet (71.86) wrote:

One comment about the weed thing.  Pot seeds might be one of the best things to stockpile.  The seeds are high in protein and nutritous.  The stalks can be pounded into fiber for making ropes, tarps and, (in a pinch), jackets, pants or other outer clothing.  Also, the leaves are a natural antinausiant, (sp?, the stuff that helps you not throw up), which could be handy if you are forced to eat not so fresh food or drink not so fresh water.  Also helps with depression, (probably a common condition if the world goes to he11 in a handbasket, as you seem to think it will, (or you would not need all the survival gear).  The pulp from the stems also makes a high quality paper.

As for it being illegal, if you get down to the point of needing all the guns and ammo and other stuff to protect yourself, I don't think the government is going to be too active trying to nab you for your illegal pot farm.  I think they will have much bigger problems to worry about, (civil unrest, attacks on politicians and bankers that got us into that horrible mess, etc.).  

Just my thoughts.  Hope your scenario doesn't come true.

Craig 

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#18) On February 09, 2009 at 3:32 PM, Harold71 (22.27) wrote:

abitare

I must say thank you for all of your work, and I am more than a little surprised that you still have people mocking your posts.  Especially since you've called the entire thing pretty well thus far.

I'll also say I stopped by my local Goodwill store this weekend...the store was the most crowded I've ever seen it, and I got some nice name brand clothes at less than Walmart prices.  Frugality seems to be catching on, IMO.

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