Stop Listening to These Guys
CNBC had the standard two "professional money managers" on this morning, debating where the market is heading next (which makes up roughly 90% of CNBC's programming these days.)
One says the Dow will fall 40%-50% in the next six months, the other says it will rise 20%.
The gulf between these forecasts proves how completely ridiculous predicting the market is. Totally, completely, 100% ridiculous. There's no science behind it. There's no logic behind it. It's a guess pulled straight from the colon.
I started wondering what we'd think if two meteorologists came on, one predicting it was going to be 100 degrees and sunny, the other saying it would be 10-below and a blizzard. Without a doubt, we wouldn't listen to either of them, and politely ask both to find new professions. But that's basically the same forecasting gap the CNBC "pros" are predicting.
So why do people spend so much time listening to market forecasters? I have no idea. But, hey, keep in mind, I was watching CNBC this morning, and probably will every morning for the foreseeable future.