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2good2betrue (< 20)

Strategy Revised -



March 18, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: AOD , CNAM.DL , CEAI

My instincts are if I really don't know the name or see a strong repeatable pattern or have watched a stock for at least a few weeks or more, not to trust it. I did get burned on SBAY recently, which I'm now committed to (unfortunately). I've since revised my strategy a bit.

Putting back on my accumulate hat, so I'll get back to dipping and ducking to funnel profits back into AOD - which i have a sizeable position in and will continue to build on that. Like the long term prospects of AOD not only from capital appreciation but also the monthly dividend.

New goal on my long term funds:

Wait out GSX – I own a ton of it. I'd like to see $2 but will dump at less of a profit if sideways action prolongs. I bought at 52 week low and see a bright future for this one - just need to be patient.

SBAY, still think this will come back and didn't take my loss. Would like to see $8-9, but may sell for less, again, if sideways prolongs the hold time.

I picked up some CNAM also in this downturn as a diversification move. The more I read about them the more i like about them. Great upside (3x+), low downside risk, again value shopping china right now is sweet.

One thing I strongly believe is companies that can provide local raw materials have great future upside as the costs of transportation continues to increase. The whole japan deal is going to really increase the need for cleanup, new buildings, and all these cars (lots and lots of cars), I believe japan will be the single biggest car market for the next several years as all these disaster cars get replaced. Huge demand for raw materials for these cars is on the near/long term horizon.

I also own a sizeable position in CEU, bought this at 52 week low, and while this nice little uptick looks attractive for profits, I do see bigger and brighter things for this company. The downturn of this stock reminds me of HUN, what a turnaround for that company. I really think 2x to 3x is realistic for this company. Just need to be patient, let it all play out.

Right now everyone is over reacting to Japan, seems as though everything asia is getting pummelled - but I question the reasoning. Fear and doubt makes for great prospecting! Asia is still great, only more recently, unprecidented value is becoming a reality.

I've got these other long term holds: RGIN, ADMP – that I'll just shelve for a few years. Own 50k shares each but like the potential upside – didn't cost much to get (again bought at 52 week low), so even if I lost it all, it wouldn't be the end of the world there. If either raises to $1, my plan is to pull out original investment and let the rest ride - see where it goes.

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 18, 2011 at 1:05 PM, awallejr (28.32) wrote:

The problem with AOD is they aren't growing their NAV. It first came out at $20 and is now down to $6.  You might want to take a look at companies like BX or PSEC which are BDCs that also pay a respectable monthly dividend with better growth prospects.

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