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dragonLZ (99.34)

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December 22, 2009 – Comments (22) | RELATED TICKERS: GMX

OK, here is mine:

It comes from GMX's post from 8/31/09 "It May Be Coming To An End".

In that post I said DOW will see 10,500 by the end of 2009. 

As you probably know, DOW reached 10,500 on 12/14/09 (and is at 10,460 today).

Just for the record, on 8/31/09, DOW was at 9,496, and a lot of experts were calling the top (or an end :) at that time...

So here it is: 

#12) On August 31, 2009 at 7:21 PM, dragonLZ (95.59) wrote:

Hi GMX. Great post. Agree with everything you said...

You know I'm kidding, don't you?

OK, I'm also willing to stick my neck out (I do realize that my "neck" is not so relevant as yours right now, but one day it will...believe me...):

DOW will see 10,500 before the end of the year (which will probably be the short term top).

Also, S&P will never see 666 again. Never.

Now, go ahead call me whatever you want, but remember: We will know who's right and who's wrong very soon. The end of the year is not that far away...

p.s. Never will take a little time... :)

22 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 22, 2009 at 3:50 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

Nice work.  Now, what's your prediction for 2010? 

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#2) On December 22, 2009 at 4:11 PM, buildgreen (< 20) wrote:

bravo... i appreciate that someone who made a call actually owns up to it when the time comes due.. Of course it is a bit easier when you are right but bravo none the less.

 

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#3) On December 22, 2009 at 5:02 PM, 1315623493 wrote:

I wrote a report on US Steel (X) in March 2009, which subsequently gained 135%.

http://www.betapeg.com/yahoo_site_admin/assets/docs/X.83184235.pdf 

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#4) On December 22, 2009 at 6:54 PM, Teacherman1 (49.58) wrote:

Bought IO in mid July, posted my pitch mid Sept. Said it could go up 400% to 500% over the long term.

Up 154% so far.

Not actually a market pick, but I don't make those anyway. Just individual stock picks.

Sill like it to go up to the 400% to 500% level over the longer term.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Hope everyone has a Merry Christmas.

Have to run, hear my wife asking me if I am on the computer. Have house guests, so she doesn't like it.

 

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#5) On December 22, 2009 at 7:16 PM, portefeuille2 (99.81) wrote:

I suggested this trend line for the S&P 500 index on 06/23/09 (see comment #15 here).

 

update.

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#6) On December 22, 2009 at 7:20 PM, portefeuille2 (99.81) wrote:

or this one.

-------------------

#145) On March 10, 2009 at 3:06 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: HGSI - 0.50 - outperform

-------------------

(from here)

HGSI closed today at $30.58.

but also see comments #595,596 of that post, hehe ...

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#7) On December 22, 2009 at 7:26 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Mine was-

Oil at $35 a barrel I said buy oil stocks and ETF's

I also put a sell for when it reached $75

Scary no.

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#8) On December 22, 2009 at 10:37 PM, uclayoda87 (29.91) wrote:

Betting that the US will remain a going concern

December 07, 2008:

"The case for commodities, including metals and food, is a simple play on a growing world population and infrastructure development.  A falling Dollar due to inflationary spending will also boost returns if the companies are located in Canada or Australia.  FCX stopped paying a dividend and let go of workers that it didn’t need.  It also slowed production to relieve the over supply of metals on the market.  For their prudent efforts of saving cash and supporting commodity prices, their stock fell 20% in two days.  This is not a retail company selling items below cost.  It recognizes that when demand returns to the market, it should not have to rely on banks to furnish the cash it needs to ramp up production.  Burning cash for the sake of keeping warm may work in Michigan, but for real companies trying to survive this is not a good strategy."

FCX was about $17/share at that time.

 

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#9) On December 22, 2009 at 11:18 PM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

Betting that the US will remain a going concern

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#10) On December 22, 2009 at 11:48 PM, dragonLZ (99.34) wrote:

WOW, very nice predictions / calls.

Wish more people would join us (here or on their blogs) with their successful 2009 predictions. I simply love this stuff...

Good Luck in 2010 Everybody!

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#11) On December 23, 2009 at 12:40 AM, portefeuille5 (99.66) wrote:

some great "predictions" have been made by these players.

2009pix

2009picks

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#12) On December 23, 2009 at 12:40 AM, DarthMaul09 (30.45) wrote:

"Taseko Mines Limited (Taseko) is a mining and mineral exploration company. The Company has one operating mine and three exploration projects, all located in British Columbia, Canada, which includes Gibraltar copper-molybdenum mine, the Prosperity gold-copper property, the Harmony gold property, and the Aley niobium property. On May 2, 2008, Taseko completed the acquisition of Oakmont Ventures Ltd.

Small but with great potential, especially following the recent price drop. This may also be a potential take over target or another company that China could invest in, like TCK."

Stock pitch posted on 11/28/09.  Start price $3.11

A company from Japan bought into this miner within a week of this post.

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#13) On December 23, 2009 at 12:48 AM, Momentum21 (98.23) wrote:

Dragon - thanks for the post. I wish I had more to contribute here. I came late to the party and have done well with my picks since August but took some big hits early in the year that would better qualify me for a worst predictions post! 

If I held the course and kept buying instead of selling and going short for a spell it could have been real fun. I try to keep learning and looking forward. My only prediction for 2010 is that there will be opportunities for all of us to profit by using our own style, keeping an open mind and holding a steady line. 

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#14) On December 23, 2009 at 1:49 AM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

My biggest gainers have been BAC and GNW, but I think my best call of the year was HZO:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=205685&t=01001094457128408726&source=itxsitmot0000001

Best call because everyone told me I was bat@#$! insane for making it.  

 

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#15) On December 23, 2009 at 3:00 AM, caterpillar10 wrote:

Most individual stocks will have price fluctuations with some advancing while others decline. I absolutely guarantee it! 

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#16) On December 23, 2009 at 9:18 AM, SolarisKing (< 20) wrote:

1. AllStarPortfolio

2. This is not the TOP - GV is WRONG @ 1100

3.Red thumbing VXX for christmas, and my rational Which i am looking to get out of soon, now that it is at +5 points.

4. NHYDY.PK @2.89

 

Not much, i know, but i wanted to be with you folks.

Right now, i predict that my score and accuracy will greatly improve in '10, and that i will be rated over 40 by mid summer.

-solaris 

 

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#17) On December 23, 2009 at 2:48 PM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

#5



enlarge

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#18) On December 23, 2009 at 4:38 PM, 1315623493 wrote:

 portefeuille

Is that a radical function? Do you think the stock market reflects exponential and radical functions of some kind?

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#19) On December 23, 2009 at 6:00 PM, EnigmaDude (97.17) wrote:

OK - i'll play.  Mine was:

Best MLPs for 2009

Here are the results in share price growth since Jan. 2009 (according to Google Finance)

ETP = +34%

MMP = +50.9%

EPD = +56.4%

KMP = +32.7%

PAA = +62.5%

And of course most (if not all) of these paid dividends as well.  But did I listen to my own advice?  Well of course not!

There's always next year...

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#20) On December 23, 2009 at 8:44 PM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

Is that a radical function?

Yes, it is a "radical function". The trend line for log (p(t)/p(0))) in the figures above is proportional to t^0.37 (if you forget about the (1-exp(-t)) factor that I intoduced to get a nicer fit for the first few days).

So p(t) = p(0) * exp (1/15*t^0.37) is apparently a decent fit.

Do you think the stock market reflects exponential and radical functions of some kind?

I have given some other examples here. I have not examined the "relevance" of this in any way.

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#21) On December 23, 2009 at 8:46 PM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

I was somewhat lucky to choose the numbers 15 and 37. no magic behind all this.

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#22) On December 23, 2009 at 8:48 PM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

-------------------

#31) On June 29, 2009 at 2:56 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote:

The green curve is not meant to be very "exact". This simple fact can be seen from my choice of parameters. The fit (green curve) for the data log (p(t)/p(0))) is 1/15*(1-exp(-t))*t^0.37. It took me about 10 seconds to choose 15 and 0.37 and the choice was done by "looking at it" and "trial and error". So no science involved here!

-------------------

(from here)

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