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IBDvalueinvestin (98.49)

Summer Job + Census + Economic upturn hirings



June 03, 2010 – Comments (2)

All that will be unfolded on Friday Mornings Job Numbers.


Estimates :

Jun 04 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls May

Seems vast majority of people have started to short the market ahead of those numbers based on the DJIA falling today. 

We will see who is correct on Friday, the majority or the minority.


2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 03, 2010 at 1:18 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

The report could come in FAR better than expected, even if we didn't add a single real job.  Census hiring will add 1.4 million to these numbers over several months, and then they'll all be lost.

"This Friday the NFP report from the BLS could easily surpass 700,000 people, driven primarily by temporary census hirings and by Birth/Death adjustments. The Census Bureau reported that between the weeks of May 9 and May 15, there were 573,779 employed census workers. In the prior month, for the week ended April 17, there were 156,335 census workers employed, or a differential of 417,444 newly hired census workers between April and May. Keep in mind that in the May NFP report, the benefit from census workers was at 66,000, or 90,335 less than the Census reported number. As a result, due to the BLS' voodoo math and double counting, its is distinctly possible that the Census alone will add up to 507,779 workers (organic hirings of 417k and the plug for the prior period of 90k). Also, recall that the Birth-Death adjustment in April "added" another 188,000 workers. Retaining the same level of statistical adjustment, and the May NFP number will be at 700,000 before even one real full-time person has been added to the economy in the month of May!"

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#2) On June 03, 2010 at 3:28 PM, simplemts (< 20) wrote:

I have to admit I am disappointed reading your blogs these days IBD.  Heavily biased, subjective, and guilty of "cheerleading".  Oh well, I suppose random Blogs are entitled to be whatever they want to be.

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