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Summer rally!!! HOO HA

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June 30, 2011 – Comments (8)

I love the market, love Mr Market, love to watch his irrational highs and lows.

But man, this week.   You can just see the neurons dying off.  Traders are thinking about sun, hot dogs, and the swimming pool.  Up up up - buy this, buy that.

This is as brain dead a move as I've ever seen, folks.  This may be the rally where we overshoot new highs and reasonable valuations by 20% - there's always one before the next set of shoes start dropping.  And boy howdy Imelda, have we got some shoes for you!

After Labor Day.  Till then the shoe store's closed!  Summer rally!  HOO HA 

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 30, 2011 at 8:00 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I think this little rally was part a relief rally and part the MM's wanting the "books" to look better for the June 30th close.

I'm suspecting tomorrow will start the trend down, but there may not be enough traders on the floor before the 4th for much to happen. 

It's nice to get a little more cushion against the bottom resistance.  I'm hopeful, but wary.

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#2) On July 01, 2011 at 10:11 AM, lemoneater (79.19) wrote:

Shhhh! ikkyu2, about the only edge I have in investing is anticipating/observing mood changes. Don't wreck my game!

While I'm at it, I hope that you have a wonderful 4th of July. I think this will be a great quarter for HNZ--all that ketchup!

 

 

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#3) On July 01, 2011 at 3:40 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

It's amazing how quickly sentiment can swing from one extreme to the other.  It seems like the attention span of the financial media is about 2 seconds...last week they were warning of a crash on weakening fundamentals, now they're already projecting new highs later this year after one big week. 

This week's action has been crazy.  All the action has been in the first hour of trading...the hourly charts for the week look like a perfect set of stairs, straight up at the open then flat all day, repeat, etc...  We finally got a day when the dollar didn't tank today and the market still shot up.  However, most indexes are now looking overbought and I wouldn't bet on holding the 50 day next week.

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#4) On July 01, 2011 at 6:51 PM, awallejr (85.43) wrote:

It's doing exactly what a bull market does do.  Rises, corrects, rises to a higher high, corrects, rises to a higher high, corrects.  The problem is people listen to the doom and gloomers everytime there is a correction and fail to take advantage of buying.

Now July earnings season is upon us and future guidance will be important to listen to.

Anyone listen to my suggestion of buy in May and stay?  I know I did and increased my portfolio income stream as well as buying some flatout oversold stocks like CSCO GE and INTC.

Stop listening to the headlines.

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#5) On July 02, 2011 at 12:30 AM, ikkyu2 (99.31) wrote:

I have been more or less all in for the last year and a half.  I got up to 5% cash at one point in April, but I am back all in again, even diverted some money I really couldn't spare.  Doing OK too.

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#6) On July 02, 2011 at 12:55 AM, awallejr (85.43) wrote:

I say concentrate building an income stream.  Plenty of BDCs, MLPS, REITs out there and still at low prices.  Also some that haven't reinstated yields yet but will.  I suggested NCT, and they have.  And look at FIG and even CT.  Or look at ones slowly re-growing their yeilds.

I swear this rally since march of 2009 has gotten "no respect" yet if you played it you made money.  Ignore the bears they have been wrong for years now.  Eventually they will be right I suppose like a broken clock, but just not yet.

Market will correct again in July mainly over the debt ceiling being taken to the wire.  The bears will come out and say watch out DOW 6000 here we come with a triple dip recession, and then at the last minute the debt ceiling will be increased and the market will rally up.  Just ignore the noise.  Look at valuations and earnings.  In the end that will make most people money.

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#7) On July 02, 2011 at 2:44 AM, ikkyu2 (99.31) wrote:

I don't really need income, but I do agree yields are a measure of valuation that provides some price support.  Mr Market can't convince people a paper's worthless when it's returning 10 cents on the dollar per annum, can he?

When I give a percentage, that's of the portion of my retirement plan devoted to stocks.  It was sort of a revelatory moment for me when I realized that in order to get the price movement of stocks in that account, I had to be in stocks.  The question has really just been, which stocks. 

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#8) On July 02, 2011 at 12:43 PM, awallejr (85.43) wrote:

You misunderstand me regarding "income stream."  While eventually I will use that once retired, right now the importance of it is to build cash off it and invest it back in.  You could just use a DRIP but then that is committed to the given stock.

Back in 2009 you could have thrown a dart at the charts and made money.  Now it is more of a pickers market.

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