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portefeuille (99.60)

SVNT

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6

January 28, 2011 – Comments (7)

It might be a good time to buy a few SVNT shares. SVNT shares are currently one of the larger positions of my "fund" (see here). There are currently 15460 SVNT shares in the fund with break-even of around 9.49 USD.

zzlangerhans on SVNT.

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The company is progressing with their plans to market Krystexxa on their own. 8mg vials are being priced at $2300 wholesale for biweekly administration, for an indefinite duration. Since gout is a chronic disease and Krystexxa is a prophylactic treatment for those who have failed all other therapies, it would appear that Savient will be making about $60000/yr off each of these patients for the rest of their lives. Disagreement over the actual numbers of eligible patients leads to wildly disparate revenue estimates of $200M-$900M, the higher of which helped foment the excessive ballooning of the share price last fall. I have to say that in the ER I see horrible cases of gout that have been refractory to all approved treatments quite frequently. Alexion’s Soliris and Viropharma’s Cinryze have proven to be extremely effective money-makers for much smaller populations with chronic ailments, but the larger patient pool for Krystexxa may actually induce more pushback from American health insurance companies and eventually from European spending regulators. One must hope that Savient priced Krystexxa wisely to maximize profits and minimize the chances of denial. Even at the low end of revenue estimates the company seems underpriced at a cap of 717M. Sales began in December and there is a high likelihood that once large pharmas see insurance reimbursements beginning (and Savient lowers their price for a buyout) we will see this company belatedly acquired.

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(from here)

 

also see this recent post by zzlangerhans.

Two more bottoms for the GBMB

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 28, 2011 at 11:12 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

As usual I recommend buying in tranches. Now might be a great time for buy tranche #1 (SVNT is currently at around $9.31) ...

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#2) On January 28, 2011 at 11:29 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

There are currently 15460 SVNT shares in the fund with break-even of around 9.49 USD.

Now 49460 SVNT shares in the fund with break-even of around 9.40 USD.

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#3) On January 28, 2011 at 12:57 PM, Predaking (29.32) wrote:

I thought their announcement to "go it alone" that sent the stock down 50% would make it a more attractive acquisition (i.e. cheaper than the inflated market cap that was run up due to the expectation of an acquisition). I bought in around $11 and am still waiting. They will have ecnomies of scale issues if they have sell the drug themselves, which could keep the stock price depressed for quite awhile.

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#4) On January 28, 2011 at 3:48 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

Not there yet Hans IMHO!

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#5) On January 31, 2011 at 7:44 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Savient Announces Proposed Offering of $125 Million in Convertible Senior Notes

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#6) On July 30, 2011 at 3:33 AM, ipsiety (23.37) wrote:

The LT Debt to Equity ratio is around 2.36 Are you not uncomfortable with this extremely leveraged balance sheet ?

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#7) On July 30, 2011 at 3:49 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#6 That is not so uncommon for a small biopharmaceutical company.

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