TA: Tenth Segment of the eight part of the fifth big wave.
Yes, I have a bad score, yes I picked DRYS once for up. But have downed them and EXM since. I still like TBSI and I believe in TA as a long term big-picture tool, sorry.....but... I'm still lost here.
I don't think Goodvibe has time to shill himself to any extent, let alone to the level Abitare blogged, although I don't think she thinks he has that many shills either. Worse though, I thought GV had some good material for looking at TA, but I didn't think anyone thought it could be used by the hour in a market with a VIX and government both out of control. Still it was good reading until he said that he wouldn't come out to play anymore yesterday, when the negativity started. If he ignored the criticism each time he asked everyone else to, the blog would have been easier to read. All in all his Gandhi traits adds to his character.
Why people have to go negative on any view point, however, just shows the diversity of the human character. Anyone who wants to be critical can start their own blog as Abitare did, but only after a feww in-blog jabs. TA is a good tool, but you can't call the bull/bear entry exit points until after they happen. Calling bottom is the mistake that many of us make. Sometimes it's more of a hope or frustration than a call. It works well over a long stable period. We take more guesses at bottom and tend to ignore the tops.
I was also almost getting it when Mary explained it so well on 2/13. " We are on the 5th of 5 large waves. This 5th wave has 5 parts and we are on the third of those (a down wave). Within that, there are 5 segments, i,ii,iii,iv,v and we are (or were) in the second which appeared to be a flattish segment that was going to be twice as long as the first (i) segment. I have cross referenced pages 23 through 26 to keep the Elliot wave diagrams at easy reach to compare as we go through these charts." I do like Mary, I owe her big time. I woke up out of my bull dreams reading one of her posts last week and I ran for cover in a big way. I do owe Mary for helping with charts over a very long/broad view, but this daily, hourly stuff in this market!??? I would happily buy her, her husband, Goodvibe and Arbitare dinner anytime, but not all of them at the same time. I appreciate their sharing and really, really appreciate MARY!
Right now the only waves I see are 4 down days, bargain hunters, bad news, too much government intervention and then we take on more water. Are we in the trough? Well the knife blade looks like it's still pointing down to me. This is not the market to be wave, part, segment counting, measuring the flattish part, etc, and then deciding that one segment was part of another wave, and the part that we though was a part was a segment...Good thing we are using an eraser and chalk....there's always tomorrow.
TA is real, the number of newbies here embracing it as an hourly tool and as the only real method in this environment, where this market is too overridden by fear and flight to safety than any TA can factor in, is scary. Since November this forum has jumped in attendance because of the fear. It is sad to see so many dead accounts and CAPS trying to do statistics on dead companies with Zombies and 90 Day bombs factored in. Don't get me wrong, Zombies or 90 day bombers who use CAPS to pick some stocks to watch from time to time and not try to play the game are certainly valuable to the community. CAPS, however should score accordingly. It's embarrassing to see a sub $1.50 stock with 5 stars because all the fools who picked them left and no one else is allowed to red thumb them.
It’s sadder to think that we are so desperate for a hero that we think anyone has all the answers, (even though GoodVibe to his credit is quick to say he doesn’t. My Advice; Pick a few stocks and deep dive them in both TA, quarterly reports, earnings, news, and other fundamentals. Warren Buffet’s wife wrote a good book on reading balance sheets. Most of my red thumbs in retail, auto, Winnebago, etc were from looking at balance sheets.
My CAPs score may look like I'm an idiot, (especially since I up thumbed DRYS early on long before GV), but I have made a buck or two in real life. We each have our own style, but don't expect anyone here to give you all the answers. Collectively this community is rich in styles, opinions and advice, but there is no one answer. Another example is try down-thumbing a Fool newsletter selection. The community jumps you. Look at the Fool's track record, however, and you will see that it isn't any better than anyone else's, and far worse than some of CAPS top players.
Good luck and thank you Arbitare, GoodVibes, Mary AND MANY OTHERS for your attempts to share your thoughts with the rest of us in these turbulent times.