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Teacherman1 (57.91)

Taking a Second Look

Recs

15

January 16, 2010 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: IO , HERO

I have been busy this month so have not spent much time in CAPS or in looking at buying opportunities for 2010, but am spending what free time I have reviewing my current holdings to see about making some adjustments.

I am closing out my position in IO, not because I am particularly down on them, but since I have made a good profit on them, have decided to "bank it". They have had a very good run up since I bought them, and there have been a lot of changes in their business model, so I am going to watch a while to see if I can get a better handle on where they are going from here.

I am also going to take a position in HERO again. I sold it after buying it at $1.74 in April, and had a profit of 166%. Again, I wasn't down on them, but there were some changes going on within the company, the reasons for which were not quite clear, and being a FOOL and not a fool, decided that 166% was a good profit for less than a year of holding. They have gone up between 20% and 25% since I sold, so I had an opportunity loss, but that's ok. That's the kind I prefer to have.

I think HERO could be a sleeper. They have been a good company in the past, and as drilling increases in the coming "recovery", will be again. They are a potential 4 to 8 "bagger" from where they are now. When I look at down side compared to upside, it looks like a good "bet". I see the downside from here at no more than 10% to 20%, and the upside at 400% to 800%. An investment of as little as $500 for a hundred shares could get you a return of $4,000 in the next couple of years.I like those odds.

Will probably go in with about 1/4 of what I eventually expect to hold, and will watch for develoments and buying opportunities.

Will post more thoughts on other stocks as I continue to review my current and closed picks. 

Not really a stock for short or intermediate term trading, but a good longer term hold.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it. 

 

 

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 16, 2010 at 11:51 AM, dragonLZ (99.41) wrote:

Good Luck Teacherman!

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#2) On January 16, 2010 at 1:00 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

Hero will make it. Is a long term play and right down my penny lane. :)

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#3) On January 16, 2010 at 5:41 PM, ozzfan1317 (78.56) wrote:

If you like stocks below 10$ I suggest checking out Dar and RMCF.

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#4) On January 16, 2010 at 9:40 PM, Teacherman1 (57.91) wrote:

DragonLZ - Thanks. Good luck to you too. I see you are still chasing SRZ. Good luck with that one. :) You called it right on the uptick before, but I just don't think they have a good long term future. But that's what makes a stock market: "differences of opinion".

I agree Pennyperson. That is why I am going back into it. By the looks of your score you are doing something right. Need to go look at your picks.

Ozzfan- It's not that I like stocks below $10.00. I like stocks with minimal downside and a very good upside. It just so happens that most of those stocks today (in my opinion) happen to be below $10.00, but at one point or another were well above that level.

I will be getting back into BAC, AA and GE. I will also likely get into Dell. All of them are above $10.00, but in my opinion have a minimum of a 100% upside still left. I just needed to book some profits and take a breather from them for awhile.I am watching for a good entry point.

I would like Dell a lot more if it paid a dividend, but I think their purchase of Perot's company will have a positive impact that can offset that. 

I will look at the two you mentioned.

Will be looking at Techs for 2010, but most of the ones I am interested in just won't come down to the level I want. I should have bought AMAT some time ago, but I thought since they were on the backside of the computer sector, I would have more time. 

I am also looking at going back into TRN, they still have some good upside, but I not as comfortable with their downside as I was before. Too many things going on in that sector for me to be comfortable enough to pull the trigger. 

I hope that in time, all of my stocks are above $10.00.:)

Will save some for another day. 

Hope you all have a good weekend. 

 

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#5) On January 16, 2010 at 10:30 PM, Teacherman1 (57.91) wrote:

Ozz- Dar maybe. Will have to look closer. They are growing and are increasing both sales and profits.

RMCF- No way. Have you noticed that they have been going sideways for the past four years while their profits have been falling. Good luck if you are in them for real, but just not my cup of tea. Just don't think they can get to the level they need to in order to be very successful in the long run. 

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#6) On January 17, 2010 at 9:43 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.72) wrote:

Sold aa, my wife had bac sold.

Still own some GE  cost averaged down.

Stocks below $10 I like Nep.

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#7) On January 17, 2010 at 11:59 AM, Teacherman1 (57.91) wrote:

OZZ- I think you may have found a real winner in DAR. They look like a very good longer term growth play. I like the things they are doing. I also like their balance sheet and income statement. Moving the right columns in the right directions. If that JV with Valero gets up and running, they will likely have a good jump just on that news.

The only way I would think about buyng RMCF is if they were to dip back down below $4. Even then, they would be a dividend play and a long shot as a growth stock.

 

MSFTGEV - As I said, when it comes to AA and BAC, I am watching for a good re-entry point. Had good profits in both and felt the money could be put to better use elsewhere for a while. 

In the longer run, I believe BAC will be up at least 200% from where it is now, and if bought at the right price, it could be 300%. I am actually hoping for bad news for the 4th quarter so I can jump in.

As for AA, it will take some time, but I would be greatly surprised if they were up any less than 100% in a couple of years. Won't approach the return I got on them before, but 50% annualized is still worth it to me.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Great score by the way.

Have a pleasant Sunday.

 

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#8) On January 17, 2010 at 6:42 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.72) wrote:

$5.13 -0.25 (-4.65%) 1/15/2010 4:00 PM Hercules Offshore, Inc. (HERO)

really?

Happy sunday to you Teacherman.

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#9) On February 11, 2010 at 11:57 PM, alberta911 (75.81) wrote:

Kudos to your Siri...looks like that pick did you well!

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#10) On February 12, 2010 at 10:05 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.72) wrote:

I like HERO below $4. For a different perspective.

There goes my HERO...watch him as he goes...

Notice how we're not trying to stop it from going away? Hercules Offshore can't catch a break but I do like the company from a long-term perspective IF and only IF they can show revenue improvement. Currently they're staring at three straight years of expected revenue declines and those numbers don't create buying. Yes it's trading well below book value but the thought process here is HERO will either issue a secondary or continue to pay down their debt with existing cash thus making their debt/equity situation more dire. Watch that cash situation, and wait for revenue growth and it may be worth a gamble. For now, I'd say $3.25 is in its future.

UltraLong

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#11) On March 04, 2010 at 9:23 PM, cashkid79 (93.31) wrote:

I am the only one that knows people/person that could be swapped with HERO in ULs story there???

 

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#12) On March 04, 2010 at 9:31 PM, cashkid79 (93.31) wrote:

oops, nevermind...

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