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alstry (35.38)

The Accuracy of Alstrynomics

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January 30, 2009 – Comments (12)

The world is finally beginning to wake up....

(From CalculatedRisk and Simon Properties)

David Simon [Chief Executive Officer, Simon Property Group Inc., the biggest U.S. shopping mall owner] ... said the company doesn’t plan to begin construction on new projects or major redevelopments in 2009 and there will be little new U.S. retail construction for years to come.

“The new development business is dead for a decade,” Simon said on today’s call. “Maybe it’s eight years. Maybe it’s not completely dead. Maybe I’m over-dramatizing it for effect.”

No Mr. Simon, you are not over-dramatizing.  Relative to what it has been for the past decace, despite any stimulous plan, residential and commercial construction will be dead in America for the next ten years.

Considering construction was a HUGE segment of the economy.....the pain from the slowdown is just beginning. 

Hurry buy gold, pretty soon few will have money to buy it from you.  The chemo will start flowing once Volker is going.  It won't be fun but will set the foundation for a future recovery.

Can't wait for PositiveAlstry to take the stage....but it likely won't be for a while.

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 30, 2009 at 3:06 PM, Cherryz (32.94) wrote:

"Hurry buy gold, pretty soon few will have money to buy it from you."=devaluation of gold.

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#2) On January 30, 2009 at 3:15 PM, FreundInvesting (29.34) wrote:

Cherryz, agreed. I wouldn't touch gold right now. Oil, yes, gold, no.

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#3) On January 30, 2009 at 3:17 PM, djemonk (< 20) wrote:

I'm planning for a decade of flat earnings and tough times.

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#4) On January 30, 2009 at 3:18 PM, djemonk (< 20) wrote:

I'm planning for a decade of flat earnings and tough times.

Let me qualify that by adding "... in the US."  My investments are moving more and more overseas.

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#5) On January 30, 2009 at 3:18 PM, rofgile (99.31) wrote:

US construction will be down for a while.. but construction in other countries will be ok.  India, China, Russia, Brazil - all of these countries could stand to build lots of shopping malls and houses still (and the people there could benefit).  At this point in the US, new shopping malls or subdivisions doesn't benefit us, and is just ruining all countryside where there used to be nice forest.  Good riddance to US commercial construction.  Death to shopping malls.

Anyways, I hope CAT, MTW, TEX can get used to build houses, malls, hospitals in places of the world that really need these. 

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#6) On January 30, 2009 at 3:30 PM, Seano67 (83.32) wrote:

Anyways, I hope CAT, MTW, TEX can get used to build houses, malls, hospitals in places of the world that really need these.

 

Or, they *could* always be put to work right here at home doing some badly needed upgrading to America's roads, highways, bridges, dams, power and energy grids, water systems, etc etc etc in the new economic stimulus plan.

 

Oh but wait, there is virtually no physical infrastructure spending provided for in the new economic stimulus plan. Oops...

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#7) On January 30, 2009 at 3:31 PM, AntiRonChapmanJr (99.79) wrote:

the accuracy of alstrynomics is a point or 2 above 70% right now as i see it.

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#8) On January 30, 2009 at 3:44 PM, motleyanimal (88.74) wrote:

May flowers always line your path and sunshine light your day.

May songbirds serenade you every step along the way.

May a rainbow run beside you in a sky that's always blue.

May happiness fill your heart each day your whole life through.

And if your stock portfolio should change from gold to crap,

May the Goddess of Prosperity sit her fat rump on your lap.

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#9) On January 30, 2009 at 4:00 PM, alstry (35.38) wrote:

Chapster,

You are seeing it on a relative basis against the market which has been a loser.  Since my position is net short, my absolute real life performance is in no way limited by the losers of the relative world.

With Alstry, it is not how much less have I lost than you....it is how much has been made in real life...in any environment.

Alstrynomics never likes to be less of a loser....winning is the only thing that is fun in Alstry's world.

I had a friend in law school to took a Con Law class.  Outside of my buddy's score, the highest grade in the class was a 78.  Fortunately for the class, the professor scaled to 78 being the top score and threw my buddy's test out of the pool.  Fortunately I took the class the following semester and after a few beers, actually more than a few, my buddy told me he scored 161.

 

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#10) On January 30, 2009 at 9:09 PM, AntiRonChapmanJr (99.79) wrote:

shorting everything in sight is easy.  see this portfolio's performance for more information.

i am looking forward to your positive alstry account because going long is actually difficult.

antiron

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#11) On January 31, 2009 at 9:05 AM, alstry (35.38) wrote:

You are dead wrong on your perspective.  It is actually easier to score points green thumbing stocks in a rapidly falling market.  You just have to pick those companies falling less than the market....those with strong cash positions, ect....

Applying this in the real world can make you a winner in CAPs and a loser in life.  I try to combine both in my picks.

When you are red thumbing, you must pick those that fall MORE than the markets fall.  Something very difficult especially if you are trying to maintain a high average score.

In my experience very few can do it successfully.

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#12) On February 01, 2009 at 5:24 PM, RonChapmanJr (92.59) wrote:

alstry, i dont need a lesson on CAPS scoring. 

again, the antiron portfolio gives support to the idea that red thumbing stuff is easy.  i am not sure why you are explaining to me how to get points from red thumbing, i can obviously do it. 

we will see how your positive portfolio does.

ron

 

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